Global Hurricane Activity At Historical Record Lows, Scaremonger Gore Debunked Yet Again,

[No Consensus]

Global Hurricane Activity At Historical Record Lows, Scaremonger Gore
Debunked Yet Again,



Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.



June 28 2011







Six years ago, Al Gore warned that global warning would give us stronger
hurricanes and cyclones - and had already given us more of them:



Here's what I think we here understand about Hurricane Katrina and global
warming. Yes, it is true that no single hurricane can be blamed on global
warming. Hurricanes have come for a long time, and will continue to come in
the future. Yes, it is true that the science does not definitively tell us
that global warming increases the frequency of hurricanes - because yes, it
is true there is a multi-decadal cycle, twenty to forty years that
profoundly affects the number of hurricanes that come in any single
hurricane season. But it is also true that the science is extremely clear
now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes
the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans
evaporating into the storm - thus magnifying its destructive power - makes
the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.



Last year we had a lot of hurricanes. Last year, Japan set an all-time
record for typhoons: ten, the previous record was seven. Last year the
science textbooks had to be re-written. They said, "It's impossible to have
a hurricane in the south Atlantic." We had the first one last year, in
Brazil. We had an all-time record last year for tornadoes in the United
States, 1,717 - largely because hurricanes spawned tornadoes.









BUT, BUT, BUT,

we've seen the opposite:





During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone
frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at
near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research
paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed
globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.



Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.





http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/global-hurricane-activity-at-historical-record-lows-new-paper/





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

[No Consensus]

Post by No Consensus
Global Hurricane Activity At Historical Record Lows, Scaremonger Gore
Debunked Yet Again,
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.
June 28 2011
Six years ago, Al Gore warned that global warning would give us stronger
Here's what I think we here understand about Hurricane Katrina and global
warming. Yes, it is true that no single hurricane can be blamed on global
warming. Hurricanes have come for a long time, and will continue to come
in the future. Yes, it is true that the science does not definitively tell
us that global warming increases the frequency of hurricanes - because
yes, it is true there is a multi-decadal cycle, twenty to forty years that
profoundly affects the number of hurricanes that come in any single
hurricane season. But it is also true that the science is extremely clear
now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only
makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the
oceans evaporating into the storm - thus magnifying its destructive
power - makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane,
stronger.
Last year we had a lot of hurricanes. Last year, Japan set an all-time
record for typhoons: ten, the previous record was seven. Last year the
science textbooks had to be re-written. They said, "It's impossible to
have a hurricane in the south Atlantic." We had the first one last year,
in Brazil. We had an all-time record last year for tornadoes in the United
States, 1,717 - largely because hurricanes spawned tornadoes.
BUT, BUT, BUT,
During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone
frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at
near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research
paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed
globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/global-hurricane-activity-at-historical-record-lows-new-paper/
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of
scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that
is distinct from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another
try at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real
problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent
cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women
the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever
that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the
majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than
sensible."
Bertrand Russell

The spin doctors need to operate on this data stat, otherwise the patient,
public belief in AGW, may die.

[Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax]

Post by No Consensus
Global Hurricane Activity At Historical Record Lows, Scaremonger Gore
Debunked Yet Again,
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.

Ah, but you have just admitted that there has been a _change_ ... as in
climate *change*. The unscientific warmists will explain to you that,
since the science is now "in" that humans are in control of the planet's
climate, this historical low is further confirmation of AGW. Just like
they'll tell you that AGW can start an ice age... or not... depending on
whether it gets hotter or colder. Pretty flexible, the ol' AGW
"science", isn't it? ;-)

[Sapient Fridge]

Post by No Consensus
Global Hurricane Activity At Historical Record Lows, Scaremonger Gore
Debunked Yet Again,
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into
account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was
found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming-intermediate.htm

"It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency
but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane
intensity. "

http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-link-between-hurricanes-and-global-warming.html

"Overall, there is a statistically significant upward trend (the
horizontal red line). But more significantly, Elsner found weaker
hurricanes showed little to no trend while stronger hurricanes showed a
greater upward trend. In other words, stronger hurricanes are getting
stronger.

While Elsner found no trend in the overall number of hurricanes, the
increasing intensity means there are an increasing number of storms with
a maximum wind speed exceeding 210 kilometres per hour (category 4 and 5
storms). The inevitable conclusion is that as sea temperatures continue
to rise, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes hitting land will
inexorably increase. That coupled with rising sea levels is a bleak
prospect."


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7209/abs/nature07234.html

"Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average"

[Mr Posting Robot]

[coal lobby spin]

Hurricane season begins
1st Atlantic storm for 2011, Arlene, kills 22 in Mexico

[For trends in cyclones and hurricanes see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html>
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html> ].

Carrie Van Brunt-Wiley
Home Insurance
July 06, 2011

In a possible sign of what's to come for homeowners living along the Atlantic
coast, the season's 1st tropical storm took 22 lives in Mexico late last week.

Tropical storm Arlene has killed at least 22 people and caused significant
property damage since hitting a portion of Central Mexico last Thu. Data from
the US National Hurricane Center reported sustained winds of around 63 miles
per hour, though gusts may have been significantly higher, according to
reports. Juan Carlos Orantes, the director of emergencies with the country's
civil protection agency, told CNN the death count could rise as officials
continue to assess the damage.

"We are expecting still more intense storms; however, we've had a brief
stoppage for now," Orantes told the network.

The incident could have coastal residents in the US re-checking their home
insurance policies and buttressing their properties against future storms.

Though no other tropical storms have yet been charted, forecasters have
predicted a busier-than-usual Atlantic storm season, which could result in
extensive hurricane damage. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration expects between 12 and 18 named storms this year, 6 to 10 of
which could become hurricanes.

For more about the 2011 hurricane season you can visit: NOAA's Office of
Climate, Water and Weather Services

MYREF: 20110707002240 msg201107077566

[219 more news items]

---
[Vostok icecores are "untested guesswork":]
YOU are the one presenting the "evidence." Your evidence MUST be
performed using proven standards, not untested guesswork.
-- Michael Dobony <***@stopassaultnow.net>, 24 Feb 2011 19:49 -0600

[Mr Posting Robot]

[mining lobby spin]

Disaster dilemma [Fiji]

Flooding disaster. The damage wrought by natural disasters is becoming more
severe and largely affecting lowlands.

Pardeep Lal
Fiji Times
Sat, July 02, 2011

Natural disasters for many decades have been seen as one-off events and paid
off through relief and rehabilitation activities.

The preparedness measures came into effect when the occurrences and mechanics
of natural disasters became better understood. Hence, the shift to
preparedness became more eminent. However, poor funding and politics in
Pacific island countries and elsewhere have not seen much progress take place
in preparedness at the rate at which it should have taken place. The
relocation of settlements and even towns from flood and tsunami-prone areas
are not occurring fast enough or not occurring at all thereby leaving
vulnerable communities to remain in even worse conditions than before.

Disasters and Growth

Disasters leave behind huge bills to be paid. The State incurs heavy costs
after disaster in damage assessments, relief distribution (food, water,
medical supplies), hospital and health care (post-disaster treatment of
outbreaks), infrastructure and general rehabilitation.

The figures of past disasters (in post-disaster rehabilitation work) have run
into millions of dollars. During 1995-2004, the cost of disaster was $547
million. (NDMO) averaging at $60.7 mn per year. Studies conducted by
Professor Prasad and the SOPAC reported in 2005, that the catastrophes have
crippled our rate of growth which has averaged 2.6% over a 30-year period
since 1970, compared to 9.7% averaged in the 1st 5 y of the
1970s. Essential funds are diverted to reconstruction, enormous time is spent
on post-disaster work and existing or additional manpower is deployed, which
is costly. There are many irregularities in the post-disaster rehabilitation
process. It has been found that some of those who were affected did not get
timely assistance and some of those not affected received it well surprisingly
during the time when elected governments were in power.

Mismanagement of funds has surfaced and manpower is delegated to conduct
investigation. Disasters have been politicised. Political parties have used
disasters to gain mileage. It was thus a time for politicians to come out with
few boxes of food ration for their constituency and openly criticise other
political parties or governments for not doing enough. Mismanagement of state
funds and politics hinders progress and development of a nation.

FNU disaster management workshops

The Yokohama Strategy 1994 emphasised that disaster prevention, mitigation and
preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and
objectives of vulnerability reduction. Disaster response alone is not
sufficient as it yields only temporary results at a very high cost. Prevention
and mitigation contribute to lasting improvement in safety and are essential
to integrated disaster management. The Fiji National University is taking
steps to reach out to people and educate them about natural disasters with the
hope of helping reduce expenditure incurred by Government through natural
disasters. It has so far conducted 3 workshops in Vanua Levu; one in 2010 and
2 in 2011. After its successful workshop in Natewa for 17 rural communities,
it held its second natural disaster awareness workshop in Labasa on June 17
for the business community, residents, NGOs and civil society. The workshop
aims to improve people's understanding of natural disasters and prepare them
to tackle disasters through enhanced long-term and short-term planning which
has been found to be lacking and is largely the key factor for increasing
losses and damage.

Participants are taught how disasters affect the economy and
development. Further, they are taught ways of overcoming natural disasters;
not just what to do when and after disaster strikes. Our focus is to prepare
people to be pro-active; making important preparations in advance and working
together. Many lives have been lost because of the lack of
preparedness. Eleven lives were lost in the Jan 2009 flood and 146,725 people
from Western and Eastern divisions were redndered casualty (NDMAC report,
2009).

If people understand natural disasters and take appropriate precautions then
post-rehabilitation costs will be greatly reduced.

Vulnerability of estuary towns

Most towns in Fiji sit on river estuaries and are always vulnerable to floods,
storm surges and tsunamis. Relocation of flood-prone settlements and towns are
regarded as the best way to overcome such disasters in the long-term.

However, warning devises need to be set up though it does not reduce floods or
tsunami. Below is a suggested short-term vulnerability reduction strategy for
estuary towns.

Short-term vulnerability reduction strategy:

* Disaster warning (issued by authority);

* Disaster identified as threat;

* Threat confirmed and issued by authority promptly;

* Re-confirmation of threat level;

* Activation of alarm; and

* Prompt evacuation.

Some general principles must be worked out and agreed first. Decision-making
responsibility and authority should be clear, widely publicised and accepted
by all as final. A disaster situation does not allow time for debating on
roles, responsibilities and actions to be taken.

* The procedures must be kept simple and clear cut;

* Education of residents about alarm and evacuation procedures must be carried
out.

Evacuation drills must be conducted for the town by authorities (police force,
military and national fire authority) to build consciousness and monitor
response time. Every resident and commuter must know exactly what to do when
the alarm is activated.

Changing mind-sets

People need to change their mind-sets and shift from a culture of reaction to
a culture of prevention. This is a way forward to curb damage and losses.

Relationship of damage and mitigation

Damage will be high if mitigation measures and preparedness are weak and vice
versa. Preparedness and mitigation measures need to be strong and rigid. If
society wants to see good change (development), it has to ensure that this
area is managed well. Society must also understand what kind of development is
required in the 1st place so as to achieve disaster reduction. But if some
level of development has taken place then its vulnerability must be understood
which would then lead to discovering ways of ensuring that the next disaster
would not shake it. The Japan earthquake and tsunami has many lessons to be lear
nt.

The Fukushima One set-up near the coast in early 1970 was thought to have
withstood earthquakes. However, it could not overcome the colossal
tsunami. This is one example of development that had good intentions but made
things worse 4 decades later. For Pacific island nations, any development that
occurs in future must be well planned and thought out. While coastal
development poses some level of potential risk, tourism development on
highland is an alternative. There is huge potential for highland eco-tourism
in Vanua Levu which the Government must explore.

One example is along the Labasa-Savusavu highway where coffee shops, dairy
shops, service stations and tyre repair centers, souvenir and handicraft
shops, restaurants, could be established overlooking the Savusavu Bay.

Environmental protection and green development concepts inter alia must be
well established in all planning and development. Large-scale indiscriminate
deforestation for commercial logging has to be well monitored so that rapid
run off, landslides and siltation is minimised.

Settlements already in coastal lowlands and estuaries need to be gradually
relocated in order to reduce impacts from floods, storm surge and tsunami. The
Natural Disaster Management Act 1998, is not clear on relocation of
settlements. A review of Part 6 and Part 7 of the Act shall be appropriate.

The National Disaster Risk Management Plan is also not clear and has not
suggested any plans on relocation. While Part 7 section 39 of the Act
(mitigation and prevention) (c) is very clear in that it states: 'ministry
responsible for rural housing program implementing cyclone resistant rural
housing programmes', there is no mention of relocation of vulnerable
settlements.

The reason I believe it may not have been added was perhaps relocation then
was not thought of as a viable strategy to overcoming tsunami and floods of
"unprecedented stage".

Environmental changes; natural and anthropogenic, will be marked. The severity
of floods, storm surges, and tsunamis becoming more eminent and largely
affecting lowlands are proving that the issue of relocation needs to be more
seriously considered in our national policy.

MYREF: 20110707004023 msg2011070711374

[223 more news items]

---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot]

[coal lobby spin]

Keeping an eye on 3 storms with tropical potential

WPEC - CBS12.com
July 07, 2011 10:28 AM

West Palm Beach, Fla. -- Those clouds over us? The National Weather Service
now says they have a 10% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next
48 hours.

CBS12 meteorologist Chris Farrell doesn't give it much of a shot at becoming
anything more than what it is -- a widespread area of heavy rains.

In the Pacific S of Mexico, a system has a 100% chance of developing into a
tropical system, but it is predicted to head out into open water to the NW.

----

NWS BULLETINS

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MYREF: 20110708124501 msg2011070829010

[227 more news items]

---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot]

[coal lobby spin]

July expectations during hurricane season

Cheryl Lemke
11alive.com
9:28 PM, Jul 6, 2011

Atlanta -- As expected, the early wk in the hurricane season remain rather
quiet and lackluster. To date, there has been only one tropical system so far
this Atlantic hurricane season, and that was Tropical Storm Arlene which made
landfall in Mexico last month.

This benign start to the season, though, is not out of the ordinary.
Typically the m of June and July account for only 14% of the named storms
during any given season. That being said, a named storm forms in July, on the
average, once every y or so and a hurricane forms every 2-3 years.

However over the past few years, the m of July has not behaved in a typical
manner. Just last y for instance, on July 1 Hurricane Alex made landfall,
slamming into northeast Mexico with torrential rain.

The 2008 season turned out to be busier than usual, too, during July.
Category 3 Hurricane Bertha churned through the central Atlantic on July 7
while on July 23, Category 2 Hurricane Dolly pounded S Texas.

Then in 2005, the m of July was also very active. Hurricane Cindy made
landfall on July 5 near Grand Isle, Louisiana, and later Hurricane Dennis
reached peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane on July 7.

Not to be outdone, Hurricane Emily also formed in July 2005. Emily initially
developed on July 10 and would eventually strengthen becoming a Category 5
hurricane with peak winds of 160 MPH --- the earliest Category 5 ever recorded
in the Atlantic Basin and also the only Category 5 ever before August.

The bottom line is that even though July is not known for being a very active
m for tropical formation, sometimes weather conditions do favor "busier" than
usual tropical storm and hurricane development.

At this time, even though water temperatures are quite warm through the
tropical realms, overall weather conditions do not look conducive for tropical
development in the Atlantic Basin for at least the next 48-72 hours.

MYREF: 20110708130001 msg2011070826329

[226 more news items]

---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [100 nyms and counting], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[coal lobby spin]

Florida in Tropical Storm Emily's Possible Path

The 1st time Florida has been in the cone of a storm is a chance to finish
those things you've been putting off for hurricane season.

Leigh Armstrong
The Patch
Aug 2 2011

For the 1st time this season a tropical storm has Florida in its possible
path, though forecasters say it's far too early to tell if the state will stay
in the storm's sights.

Tropical Storm Emily, the season's 5th named storm, formed Mon near the island
of Dominica and is expected to move to the W northwest at about 12 mph the
next few days.

National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to make a more
northerly swing later in the wk and head up the United States coast by the weeke
nd.

Though forecasts don't call for Emily to become the year's 1st hurricane,
the storm could come close.

On Tue, hurricane center forecasters expected Emily to become within a whisker
of hurricane strength by the weekend. But there wasn't a large amount of
certainty in that early an outlook.

Computer models used for intensity forecasts are highly divided with some
taking Emily to a Category 1 hurricane by Sat or Sun.

Others have it falling apart over the jagged terrain of Hispaniola on Thu.

Track models are more uniform in keeping Emily off Florida's E Coast.

The hurricane center has Tampa Bay area by the western edge of its track cone
of uncertainty, meaning the region is in the area the storm could possibly hit.

The center of the storm could travel anyplace in that cone, so even just
outside isn't entirely safe.

If it stays on the projected path, it could be far enough away to bring no
serious impact to local weather. Actually, some dry air will move over places
N of Tampa Bay and slightly drop rain chances later in the week.

National Weather Service forecasters aren't factoring Emily into local
outlooks yet.

Wake-up Call

Emily's distance gives folks time to take steps in case the storm becomes a
threat. These early steps will make it easier when the next storm hovers over
the horizon, or the one after that.

The 1st step, experts universally agree, is have an idea what you'll do if a
storm is going to hit. Have a plan.

A key to that is knowing whether you live in an evacuation zone. Much of what
you can do next depends on this.

If your home is in one of those colored areas on evacuation maps, you'll have
to leave for one storm or another. You can also find out on line using your
address at your county's emergency management website.

The closer you live to the coast or a river, the more likely it is you'll be
told to leave for a storm. The zones are based on storm strength, so stronger
hurricanes mean a larger evacuation.

For those living on the beaches in Pinellas county, evacuation is all but
guaranteed in a hurricane.

In case of evacuation, make sure to plan ahead and make a checklist of things
that need to be done before evacuating.

That can start with talking with family members. Do you have elderly relatives
to care for? Pets? Prescriptions to have filled? Special medical needs or
diet? Where are all your legal documents?

Having a plan of what to do in case of a hurricane is key to being safe and
prepared during a storm.

The county's Emergency Management site has other information to guide you
through the early preparation steps.

The online 2011 hurricane guide goes into more detail about lists and how to
take your 1st steps for a storm.

You can also get information on preparing for a storm by searching "Hurricane"
on Patch.

MYREF: 20110803073002 msg2011080313364

[233 more news items]

---
Check the dates and times when Bozo posts. It's a 5 day Monday-Friday 8
hour working week.
-- Tom P, 26 Nov 2008

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Does all this heat mean more hurricanes?

Heat over US has no impact on hurricanes
[I.e. hurricanes don't originate over the US, but over the oceans.
There are trends. See e.g. <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html> ].

Ken Kaye
S Florida Sun-Sentinel
8:58 pm EDT, August 14, 2011

Since the beginning of May, it's been one the hottest summers on record in the
United States. In July alone, about 9k daily heat records were broken or tied.

But climatologists say the blistering heat over the continental US will not
directly cause more hurricanes or more powerful hurricanes. That's because
storms formed in the peak of the season - August, September and Oct - are
frequently spawned 1000s of miles from the US coast.

Related:
* Tropical Storm Gert spares Bermuda
* Hurricanes and warm weather
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/fl-gx-c36p6-heat-v-hurricanes.eps-20110
814,0,3745818.graphic
* Animation: Tropical waves to hurricanes
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/broadband/theedge/sfl-tropical-waves-to-hurricanes-2
0110812,0,1910903.premiumvideo
* Hurricane Headquarters: Reports, preparation tips and more
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/
* Severe weather: Sign up for our severe weather text alerts
* Video: Hurricane preparation and survival tips

On the other hand, the region where storms tend to form, near the African
coast, also is extremely hot, and that heat works to fortify tropical systems
by warming the ocean waters and triggering the thunderstorm activity necessary
to for hurricanes to grow. Forecasters predict up to 19 named storms,
including up to 10 hurricanes.

Here are answers to questions on what to expect from the heat and hurricanes
this season.

Q. Is there a single weather pattern creating all the heat around the globe
this summer?

A. Not really. The primary reason the United States is so hot is because of
persistent high pressure over the Southeast and Central US High pressure
usually means clear skies, dry air and lots of sun, all acting to heat up the la
nd.

In the tropics, a high-pressure ridge has been weak, which has eased the
easterly Trade Winds, all acting to drive up atmospheric heat, said Phil
Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist.

Q. How will the heat affect the storm season this year?

A. "Tropical formation depends on the conditions in place over the tropical
Atlantic," said meteorologist Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service
in Miami.

Temperatures there are now 1 degree above the average and the third-warmest
since record-keeping began in 1954, said Gerry Bell, chief hurricane
forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Other factors that make storms more likely include low wind shear and
low-pressure over the ocean as well as the fact the Atlantic basin remains in
natural cycle of hurricane intensity, he said.

Q. What's typical for the peak m of the storm season?

A. On average, August sees 4 named storms, September 3 storms and Oct 2
storms. On average, the 1st hurricane emerges on Aug 10, the second on
Aug 28 and the 3rd on Sep 9.

Q. If a hurricane approaches the US shoreline, will the heat over land in any
way help fortify the storm?

A. Not directly. Hurricanes draw much of their energy from warm water, and the
heat over land doesn't warm water temperatures as much as sunlight
does. However, if the water near the shoreline is extremely warm, that could
work to strengthen a storm on a short-term basis - until it moves over land,
when friction would weaken it, said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of
Weather Underground, an online weather site.

Q. If a hurricane moves over a large warm lake, say like Lake Okeechobee,
would that strengthen the storm?

A. In all likelihood, no. Because they tend to be enormous systems, hundreds
of miles across, hurricanes need to draw on expansive bodies of water to
intensify, Molleda said.

"Also, in order for a storm to survive, it needs a deep layer of warm water,"
he said. "Lake Okeechobee is very shallow." On the other hand, he said if a
hurricane moves across the flat marshy Everglades, it won't grind down nearly
as fast as it would over hilly or mountainous terrain.

Q. How hot has it been across the U.S.?

A. Scorching, as it was the 4th hottest July in the United States on
record. Most of the heat records took place from the Southern Plains states,
the Southeast and the East. They include 105 degrees on June 15 in
Tallahassee; 110 degrees on Aug 2 in Joplin, Mo.; and 115 degrees in Fort
Smith, Ark, on Aug 3. Mix in humidity, and the "feels-like" temperatures
have ranged in the low 120s in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee
earlier this month. The West, Midwest and Northeast might see slightly cooler
weather by the end of August, while the Southern Plains states and the
Southeast should remain hot, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Q. How hot has it been in Florida?

A. W Palm Beach saw its hottest July on record with an average temperature
of 85.7 degrees, or more than 3 degrees above normal.

Record warm minimum temperature records were set on 9 consecutive
days. Otherwise, across the region, during June and July, temperatures have
been about 2 to 3 degrees above normal. Florida likely will see the heat
continue through August, forecasters said.

MYREF: 20110816110001 msg201108166512

[237 more news items]

---
[If I make history stop in 1899 things can not get worse:]
Yes, but [Yasi was] not as bad as the cat 5 Mahina in 1899!
And what about 1918 when Qld had TWO CAT 5 CYCLONES!
The more things change the more they stay the same.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 3 Feb 2011 16:09 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Irene slams Puerto Rico; could hit US

Danica Coto
Associated Press
Aug 21 2011

San Juan, Puerto Rico (AP) -- Irene reached hurricane strength early Mon after
it began moving across Puerto Rico, pounding the US Caribbean territory
with torrential rains and winds and threatening to move toward the US later in
the week.

Earlier, as a tropical storm, Irene downed trees and caused widespread power
outages in the US Virgin Islands as it churned just miles (kilometers) from
St. Croix, said Christine Lett, spokeswoman for the territory's emergency
management agency.

Forecasters earlier said Irene was likely to pass S of Puerto Rico, but the
storm shifted N and was passing directly over the island, said Krizia Negron,
a meteorologist with the US National Weather Service in San Juan as the 1st 70
mph (110 kph) winds began lashing the territory.

"The main threat from the winds is just starting and it's going to continue
through the night," she said.

Early Mon, Hurricane Irene was moving west-northwest at roughly 12 mph (19
kph) with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 kph). Irene's center was
about 25 miles (40 kilometers) W of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

After moving over Puerto Rico, Irene was expected to approach Hispaniola, the
island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Nearly 600k people in
Haiti still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

In the US, Irene, the 1st hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane seasion, was
expected to affect Florida and could clip Georgia and the Carolinas.

In San Juan, dozens of people sought emergency shelter ahead of Irene, which
was expected to dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain in Puerto Rico.

Maria Antonia Ordonez, 59, said she secured the shutters of her house in
historic Old San Juan after inviting neighbors over for dinner and wine.

"You can hear the wind, the gusts are relentless," she said. "I can't see
anything because I've closed everything."

Puerto Rico's main airport was swamped with people, the usual Sun crowds
combined with people rushing to get off the island before the storm or
stranded because flights to a number of other islands had been canceled. There
were long lines at check-in counters and at the airport hotel.

Strong winds and rain were battering the outlying Puerto Rican islands of
Culebra and Vieques, where 150 tourists were evacuated, according to Gov. Luis
Fortuno. At least 120k people were without power and another 13k without water
as the storm approached.

All schools and nearly all government offices in Puerto Rico would remain
closed Mon, Fortuno said.

Daniel Moore, 43, said he woke up early Sun to clean the gutters and secure
items lying around his house in the southern coastal town of Guayama.

He went to bed early Sun to take advantage of the still-working air
conditioning.

"A lot of times the lights go out and then I can't sleep well," he said.

Authorities advised people to stay away from the ocean because Irene could
bring a dangerous storm surge to the coast.

"I strongly recommend that swimmers and recreational boaters avoid the ocean
and that the general public stay away from shoreline rocks until the tropical
storm passes and weather and surf conditions normalize," said Capt. Drew
Pearson, a US Coast Guard commander.

In the US Virgin Islands, Gov. John deJongh declared a state of emergency in
order to impose storm curfews.

"We've got what appears to be a direct hit on St. Croix," said governor
spokesman Jean Greaux, referring to the largest and poorest of the US
Virgin Islands.

Emergency shelters were opened on St. Croix, where the port was closed. The
Hovensa LLC refinery on St. Croix also closed its port because of the storm
but operations remained normal at the refinery, one of the largest in the
Western Hemisphere, said spokesman Steve Strahan.

The hurricane center said the main impediment to the storm's progress over the
next couple of days will be interaction with land. If Irene passes over
Hispaniola's mountains or over parts of eastern Cuba, the storm could weaken
more than currently expected.

"However, if the system ends up moving to the N of both of those land masses
it could strengthen more than expected," wrote forecaster Richard Pasch.

In the Dominican Republic, officials assured residents they had food available
for 1.5 mn people if needed. Also, soldiers and emergency management crews
evacuated dozens of residents from high-risk areas along the southern coast.

"We have taken all precautions," presidential spokesman Rafael Nunez said.

Many stores in the capital of Santo Domingo closed Sun even as people bought
last-minute items like flashlights.

The hurricane center's current forecast has Irene hitting southern Florida as
a hurricane by Thu.

MYREF: 20110822230001 msg2011082221295

[233 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Irene targets Fla., Carolinas

Picking up steam, Irene, the 1st hurricane of 2011, looks headed for major
storm status and for Florida and the Carolinas.

Dan Vergano
USA TODAY
Aug 22 2011

PHOTO: A boy stands on a boat after it was taken out of the sea on a Santo
Domingo beach. The Dominican Republic is waiting for the arrival of Hurricane
Irene in the country's northern coast.

Hurricane Irene, now packing 80-mph winds that make it a Category 1 hurricane,
passed Mon N of the island of Hispaniola, home to Haiti and the Dominican
Republic, and will head for the Bahamas by Wed.

The move prompted a warning from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, that
the storm will likely intensify to a Category 3 storm with winds of at least
111 mph by Thu.

* INTERACTIVE: Track the hurricanes of 2011
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2011-08-05-hurricane-map-proje
ction_n.htm

"Residents of Florida and the southeastern US should be keeping their eyes on
this storm and have their hurricane supplies ready now," says hurricane center
spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "No one wants to be standing in line at the hardware
store when a storm hits."

More than a mn people in Puerto Rico saw their power cut off Mon, as Irene
passed about 105 miles W of San Juan. No injuries were reported. The storm
also walloped the British Virgin Islands, bringing lightning that was the
likely culprit in a fire that destroyed billionaire Richard Branson's
Caribbean home. Guests, including the Academy Award-winning actress Kate
Winslet, escaped the fire uninjured.

The center of the storm's 500-mile-wide projected path now is on track to hit
South Carolina at 8 a.m. ET on Sat, although Feltgen says its path could
change. In the best case, a low-pressure center could push the storm away from
the coast late in the week. The National Weather Service said odds were higher
that Irene would make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane rather than Category
3.

"No one should just look at the center of the track and think they are clear,"
Feltgen says.

Warmer-than-normal Gulf Stream waters and light upper-air winds off the
U.S. coast are expected to spur the intensification of the storm. The
hurricane center projects a 70% chance of 3 to 5 major storms this hurricane
season, which started on June 1.

Florida and the Carolinas have largely escaped hurricanes since the heavy
storms of 2005. "That might breed complacency," says hurricane scientist Phil
Klotzbach of Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "But we have the
heart of the season right ahead of us."

MYREF: 20110823110002 msg2011082319170

[231 more news items]

---
[In the search for credible quotes, "skeptics" can unknowingly promote
the views of scientists that actually accept AGW].
Well said Freeman!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 28 Feb 2011 16:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Irene: N.Y. and 4 other states declare emergency

[Irene continues after barreling through Turks & Caicos and Puerto Rico].

Related:
East Coast girds for Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene: As many as 200k evacuate in N Carolina
Hurricane Irene: E Coast urged to heed evacuation warnings

Rene Lynch
LA Times
August 25, 2011

New York became the latest state to declare a state of emergency in a scramble
to get ahead of Hurricane Irene as the storm prepares to make a potentially
deadly drive up the E Coast.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's declaration Thu follows those of Virginia Gov. Bob
McDonnell, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley. N
Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue -- whose state is projected to take the 1st hit
Sat when Hurricane Irene makes landfall in the US -- limited her declaration
to counties E of Interstate 95.

The emergency declarations expand the states' abilities to free up funds and
cut through bureaucratic red tape to speed resources and emergency personnel
to emergency areas.

It's also a sign that of how damaging -- and deadly -- authorities fear that
Hurricane Irene can be.

Right now, Hurricane Irene is a Category 3 storm with winds clocked at nearly
130 mph as it raked over the Bahamas on Thu. But it has the potential to grow
in force and intensity to a Category 4 storm before reaching the easternmost
reaches of N Carolina and its fragile barrier islands.

The storm has abruptly interrupted vacation plans for families and
visitors in those areas as authorities order them to move to safety.

MYREF: 20110826090001 msg2011082625298

[229 more news items]

---
Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Warning: Hurricane damage may have high deductible

Tom Shean
The Virginian-Pilot
August 27, 2011

Hurricane Guide:
Prepare for and follow Atlantic storms
http://hamptonroads.com/storms
Storm tracking map
http://hamptonroads.com/storms
Interactive radar
http://www.hamptonroads.com/weather
Irene watches/warnings and 5-day forecast cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144553.shtml?5day?large#conte
nts
Full Hurricanes and Storms channel
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205313.shtml?hwind120
More Irene maps

Hurricane damage could cost you more these days, thanks to hurricane and
windstorm deductibles that have become part of most policies in Hampton Roads
and coastal N Carolina.

They require a homeowner to pay for part of any hurricane damage before their
regular coverage kicks in. The deductibles typically range from 1 to 5% of a
home's insured value. If a home has $200k of coverage and a windstorm or
hurricane deductible of 5 percent, a policyholder must pay for the 1st $10k of
the claim.

"Families will have to dig deeper into their pockets because insurers have
been steadily increasing hurricane wind coverage deductibles and imposing
other policy limitations," J. Robert Hunter, director of insurance for the
Consumer Federation of America, said in a statement.

"Once your claim is reported, be sure to get your claim number and write it
down," Hunter said. Also, start a notebook to document your contacts with the
insurance company with the date, time and a brief description of the exchange,
he said.

To help those with damage, major insurers said Fri that they were prepared to
dispatch mobile offices and additional personnel to Hampton Roads if needed to
handle policyholders' claims from Hurricane Irene.

"We've got a number of mobile claims units stationed in Charlotte ready to be
deployed along the E Coast," Deborah Pickford, a spokeswoman for Allstate
Insurance Co., said. Allstate also plans to send in teams that will go
door-to-door to contact policyholders in areas with significant damage, she said
.

Farmers Insurance Group expects to send a bus-sized vehicle equipped to
process claims to Virginia Beach when the storm subsides, Jerry Davies, a
Farmers spokesman, said. Farmers has mobile-office vehicles assembled at a
staging area in Raleigh, N.C., he said.

Other insurers said they are waiting to see where the greatest storm damage
occurs before dispatching catastrophe teams and vehicles. Nationwide
Insurance is sending mobile-claims vehicles to staging areas in Raleigh,
Richmond and Harrisburg, Pa. "We will wait until the storm passes" before
deciding where to use them, Elizabeth Stelzer, a Nationwide spokeswoman, said.

State Farm, a major insurer of homes and autos in Hampton Roads, probably will
have teams in a shopping center in the region to assist policyholders face to
face, Jon Hannah, a State Farm spokesman, said.

These teams and facilities could become crucial for policyholders whose homes
are so badly damaged they are uninhabitable. The policyholders could be
entitled to upfront payments for their living expenses, such as hotel costs.

Several insurers, including State Farm, Nationwide, Allstate and USAA, have
already notified policyholders with automated phone messages and email of ways
to file any hurricane-related claims. USAA, which provides homeowners and auto
coverage to members of the military, military retirees and their family
members, is encouraging its policyholders to file claims via their mobile device
s.

Agents and claims adjusters for some insurers will be able to process their
policyholders' claims for flood insurance, a separate form of coverage
provided through the federal government's National Flood Insurance
Program. While many agents who sell homeowners insurance also sell coverage
for flood damage, these policies are distinct from homeowners policies.

MYREF: 20110827220002 msg2011082718023

[232 more news items]

---
[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Irene rakes up E Coast

Related News:
* Hurricanes get name from Carib Indians' god of evil 5:10pm EDT
* Storm surge may force power cut to S New York City 5:10pm EDT
* NY braces for blackouts as Irene cuts Southeast power 6:24pm EDT
* Irene losses already up to $1.1 billion, more to come 5:10pm EDT
* Dominion to reduce power at Millstone US nuclear plant 5:10pm EDT
* Insurers start to total up Irene damage 5:10pm EDT

Irene hits N Carolina 85-mile-per hour winds
http://www.reuters.com/article/video/idUSTRE77K01820110828?videoId=218765055

Ned Barnett
Reuters
Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:19pm EDT

Morehead City, N Carolina (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene charged up the E Coast
Sat toward New York, shutting down the city, and millions of Americans
hunkered down as the giant storm halted transport and caused massive power
blackouts.

"The storm is coming," New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told the more than 8
mn people who live in the United States' most populous city that includes Wall
Street, one of the world's major financial centers.

From the Carolinas to Maine, tens of millions of people were in the path of
the 580 mile-wide storm that howled ashore in N Carolina at daybreak Sat,
dumping torrential rain, felling trees and knocking out power.

At least 7 deaths were reported in N Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Several
mn people were under evacuation orders on the US E Coast.

The Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel, which connects Virginia's Eastern Shore with
the mainland and is regarded as a modern engineering wonder, was closed
because of the winds and rain.

This y has been one of the most extreme for weather in US history, with $35 bn
in losses so far from floods, tornadoes and heat waves. President Barack Obama
was keeping a close eye on preparations for the hurricane.

New York City's normally bustling streets turned eerily quiet after
authorities ordered unprecedented major evacuations and shut down its airports
and subways.

Commuters were left to flag down yellow taxis and livery cabs that were
patrolling largely deserted streets.

Irene caused transport chaos in the eastern United States, as airline, rail
and transit systems in New York and other cities started sweeping weekend
shutdowns.

The Coast Guard closed the port of Philadelphia, while New York Harbor
remained open with some restrictions.

"We are trying to get to Boston and that is not going to happen. We're just
stuck here," Rachel Karten said from the near-empty Port Authority Bus
Terminal in New York. "We didn't think they would shut down everything."

Irene left nearly 1 mn people without power in N Carolina, Virginia, Maryland
and Delaware Sat and New York prepared for possible wide blackouts.

With winds of 8O miles per hour (130 km per hour), Irene had weakened to a
Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale. But it
was expected to approach New York Sat night at or near hurricane strength, the
US National Hurricane Center said.

Irene came ashore near N Carolina's Cape Lookout around 7:30 a.m. EDT, and
then chugged up the coast on a north-northeast track. By 8 p.m. (0000 GMT),
the center was 30 miles E southeast of Norfolk, Virginia, and 300 miles S
southwest of New York City.

Irene could slacken to a tropical storm by the time it hits New England Sun,
but the Miami-based hurricane center said that would make little difference in
the impact from its damaging winds, flooding rains and dangerous storm surge.

"I would advise people not to focus that much on Category 1, 2 or 3 ... if
you're in a hurricane, it's a big deal," US Homeland Security Secretary Janet
Napolitano told a conference call. "This remains a large and dangerous storm,"
she said.

"DANGEROUS OUT THERE"

Bloomberg told New Yorkers Irene was a life-threatening hurricane and urged
them to heed evacuation orders.

"This is a storm which if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time, could
be fatal ... It is dangerous out there," the mayor said in one of several
public appeals. He urged New Yorkers to stay indoors to avoid flying debris,
flooding or the risk of being electrocuted by downed power lines.

Some 370k city residents were ordered to leave their homes in low-lying areas,
many of them in parts of the boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens and in downtown
Manhattan.

But many were unwilling to evacuate. Nicholas Vigliotti, 24, an auditor who
lives in a new high-rise building along the Brooklyn waterfront, said he saw
no point.

"Even if there was a flood, I live on the 5th floor," he said. But he was
moving his car to safety in a higher spot.

The hurricane center said that Irene's winds could impact more strongly on the
higher floors of skyscrapers.

The Miami-based center forecast a storm surge of up to 8 feet for Long Island
and metropolitan New York when Irene passes Sun.

That would easily top the flood walls protecting the S end of Manhattan if it
comes at high tide around 8 a.m. Sun, hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private
forecaster Weather Underground wrote in his blog.

When Irene hit the N Carolina coast at daybreak, winds howled through the
power lines, rain fell in sheets and streets were flooded or littered with
signs and tree branches.

"NATURE DANCING"

"You look outside and it's like nature is dancing for us," said Joe Toledo,
who left his mobile home with his wife, Cindy, to take shelter in a hotel in
Havelock, N Carolina.

Two people were killed by falling trees in Virginia, one a young boy. Irene
caused 4 deaths in N Carolina, Governor Bev Perdue said. One man died of a
heart attack while boarding up his house.

In New Smyrna Beach, Florida, a surfer riding large waves kicked up by Irene
was killed, local media reported.

North Carolina Governor Perdue said there could be "a major hit" to tobacco
crops, poultry and livestock in her state.

Summer vacationers fled beach towns and resort islands. More than 1 million
people left the New Jersey shore, leaving the glitzy Atlantic City casinos
dark and empty.

Shoppers stripped the supermarkets and hardware stores of food, water,
flashlights, batteries and generators.

In Washington, the skies were dark in the late afternoon as winds picked up
and torrential rain formed pools of water in streets. Traffic died down and
only a small handful of tourists dressed in rain gear gathered outside the
White House.

Obama cut his Martha's Vineyard vacation short by a day, returning to closely
follow preparations for the hurricane.

Irene was the 1st hurricane to hit the US mainland since Ike pounded Texas in
2008. Emergency workers were mindful of Hurricane Katrina, which swamped New
Orleans, killed up to 1,800 people and caused $80 bn in damage in 2005.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the military stood ready to help. In
Washington, Irene forced the postponement of a ceremony Sun to dedicate a new
memorial to civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. Tens of 1000s of
people, including Obama, had been expected to attend.

The District of Columbia gave out 7k sandbags for residents in low-lying areas
to use in case of flooding.

Irene swept through the Caribbean as a Category 3 hurricane earlier in the
week, bringing floods that killed one person in Puerto Rico and at least 3 in
the Dominican Republic.

MYREF: 20110828120003 msg201108288978

[232 more news items]

---
[The difference between "real science" and "pseudo science":]
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby shill]

8 dead as typhoon slams northern Philippines

[The storm is expected to hit Taiwan in around 24 hrs. In other news,
Irene has so far done $1 bn+ in damage and claimed 5 lives in the US].

Jim Gomez
AP/Herald-Tribune.com
Sun, August 28, 2011 at 3:45 a.m.

Manila, Philippines - Slow-moving Typhoon Nanmadol remained dangerous Sun
despite weakening as it struck the tip of the mountainous northern
Philippines, leaving at least 8 people dead and scuttling a visit by a US Navy
battleship group, officials said.

PHOTO: Motorists drive on a highway in Batangas, S of Manila, Philippines,
under a dense fog and rain brought about by typhoon Nanmadol Sat, Aug. 27,
2011. The slow-moving typhoon made landfall in the Philippines on Sat,
drenching most of the N and triggering landslides that killed 5 children and a
min digging for gold, officials said.

Taiwan issued sea and land warnings and planned to evacuate about 3,700 people
in its eastern and southern regions as it braced for the typhoon. Troops and
rescue equipment have been deployed in advance for any contingency, Taiwan's
Defense Ministry said.

With its enormous cloud band, the typhoon drenched northern provinces with
rains for days before pummeling them with fierce winds, setting off landslides
and floods and knocking down walls that left at least 8 people dead and 6
more missing, said Benito Ramos, who heads the Office of Civil Defense.

Strong winds knocked down a concrete wall, which hit a small eatery in the
capital's suburban Quezon City Sun, killing a man and injuring 2 others in
the latest casualties of the typhoon, police said.

In the northern mountain resort city of Baguio, a garbage dump's concrete wall
collapsed and buried 3 shanties under tons of garbage Sat, killing 2
children. Their grandmother remained missing, Ramos said.

Five others perished in landslides or drowned, including a fisherman, whose
body was found floating Sat off eastern Catanduanes province after he went
missing late last week. A decision by many villagers to flee to safety before
the typhoon struck and vigilance helped reduced the number of casualties,
Ramos said.

A bus driver ordered his 18 passengers to rapidly alight after sensing the
soggy mountain road they were on was about to collapse late Sat in northern
Benguet province. After they ran to safety, the road collapsed with the bus
down a deep ravine, said regional disaster-response official Olive Luces said.

"The driver's presence of mind prevented a disaster," Luces said.

About 20 landslides cut off access to a number of Benguet towns, she said.

US officials postponed a Manila visit by the US Navy's John C. Stennis
Carrier Strike Group, originally scheduled for this weekend, due to the bad weat
her.

The US Embassy said all tours of the aircraft carrier, as well as the
reception on board, had been canceled.

Domestic airlines also canceled more than a dozen flights to areas affected by
the typhoon in the northern and central Philippines.

Nanmadol had sustained wind of 121 miles (195 kilometers) per hour and gusts
of 143 mph (230 kph) Fri, becoming the strongest typhoon to hit the
Philippines so far this year. It weakened after grazing northern Cagayan
province Sat. It would skirt the northernmost Batanes islands with 75 mph (120
kph) winds Sun before starting to blow away from the country, Philippine
government forecasters said.

Nanmadol was expected to hit Taiwan as early as Mon, Taiwan's central weather
bureau said.

On Sun, local TV footage showed parts of eastern and southern Taiwan drenched
in rain and with minor flooding, and strong winds blew a van across a road in
the eastern Taiwanese county of Taitung.

Ferries connecting Taiwan's mainland to islets and some domestic flights were
canceled, while train service in southern and eastern Taiwan was to be
suspended starting late Sun afternoon.

Two eastern Taiwanese counties said people did not have to go to school or
work on Mon.

MYREF: 20110828191318 msg2011082815912

[230 more news items]

---
Check the dates and times when Bozo posts. It's a 5 day Monday-Friday 8
hour working week.
-- Tom P, 26 Nov 2008

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Extreme weather warning: New Jersey State Police have 2 words for you

[In other news, the NWS has issued tornado watches for Brooklyn and Queens].

Gerard DeMarco
Examiner.com [Newark, NJ]
August 28, 2011

Until further notice, wherever you are in New Jersey, stay put. If you're at a
friend or relative's, stay and then "re-evaluate the situation in the
morning," State Police Sgt. Julian Castellanos said. "The roads are starting
to flood and visibility is also an issue. The ground is extremely saturated
and we have concerns over trees falling onto roadways."

Irene is flooding roads and knocking down trees, stranding motorists. If the
water suddenly swells, or you happen to be in the path of one of those trees
... well ....

It's not that State Police are concerned about the workload or don't want to
get wet. That's what they're paid to do, and they do it well. As Castellanos
said, there's a genuine concern here.

The wettest August on record has left roots very soft. A good wind can topple
even the heartiest oak. So why take the chance?

Plus, you want to be in a safe place when the sun comes up: That's when
Irene's supposed to be at her most dangerous. It's not bad advice to get your
reset now, in advance of the big hit, beginning with a storm surge of 4 to 8
feet above ground level along the Atlantic -- one day short of 6 y since
Hurricane Katrina crashed into southeast Louisiana.

Here's the catch: Storm surge is the leading coastal killer in
hurricanes. And: We're headed toward a new moon, which means an abnormally
high tide at ... sunrise.

And get this: A tornado wouldn't shock anyone.

In a phrase: The worst is yet to come.

"Hurricane Irene will become one of the more destructive tropical cyclones to
hit the E Coast in at least several decades," The Weather Channel warns. And
while it may "only" be a Category 1 hurricane, "it remains large and
formidable, somewhat akin to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it made landfall. We
remain very concerned about life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and
flooding rainfall riding up the E Coast through Sun."

Irene's last reported wingspan was up to 500 miles, its winds topping 110 mph,
according to Weather Channel meteorologists. Trace a fairly straight line
northeast along the Jersey coast and you'll see how Bergen, Hudson and areas
above will get popped not only with winds of 55 to 75 miles an hour but also
up to a foot of rain.

Bergen ordinarily floods at 3 inches. It's worse in Westwood, Hillsdale and
other low-lying areas. August's record rainfall has weakened tree roots, which
could mean not only the risk of damage but severe power outages. irene3

The Little Ferry circle was one of Bergen's 1st areas to flood, as usual. And
good ol' Route 1/9 closed early at Secaucus Road. All of Staten Island and
parts of Hoboken, New York City and Long Island have been or are being
evacuated.

Otherwise, there aren't any serious reports coming from Bergen or Hudson, as
emergency forces prepare for dawn.

If ever there was a situation that fit Gov. Christie's style, this is it.

"If I order a mandatory evacuation, you better leave," he said earlier
today. "If it turns out to be less, we should thank our lucky stars."

We best listen to the man.

All told, nearly 1 mn people have been shuttled off Long Beach Island and just
about all of Cape May and Atlantic counties. And AC's casinos are all closing
for only the 3rd time since gambling there was legalized in 1978.

With good reason: Hurricane Irene is making a beeline for Atlantic City - with
winds of 80 miles an hour.

Let's step back a moment, for perspective:
http://www.cliffviewpilot.com/bergen/2720-state-police-have-two-words-for-you-as
-irene-barrels-north

MYREF: 20110828210432 msg201108282845

[230 more news items]

---
[R.e. Yasi officially "the worst cyclone to hit Qld":]
CORRECTION: The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
[Bzzt! Thank you, come again!]
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 3 Feb 2011 15:12 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Could Irene Rains Rewrite Record Books?

[TV news is saying "yes", reporting Irene is unusual in several
respects as it continues to move up the NE coastline. Weathermen say
it's unusual for hurricane-strength winds to be recorded up to 90 mi
from the storm centre. Irene is also predicted to bring 14-15" of rain
over a region spanning NJ to Maine].

Timothy W Martin
WSJ
August 28, 2011, 12:24 A.M. ET

Weather forecasts are predicting epic rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard
through Mon. But will the downpours rewrite the history books?

Maybe.

To do so, Hurricane Irene's actual rainfall must hit the top end of the
precipitation forecast. In Atlantic City, NJ, the downpour must exceed it.

Hurricane Irene is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain over the next 48
hr to mid-Atlantic states, eastern New York and New England, according to
the National Hurricane Center's most recent bulletin.

The rainfall records range from a low of 8.64 inches in Wilmington,
Del. (Sept 17, 1999), to as much as 13.76 in Atlantic City, NJ (Aug 22,
1997), according to data compiled by the Northeast Region Climate Center at
Cornell University.

The Cornell data isn't a 24-hr, calendar day measure. Instead, the records
are collected only from "extreme" storms - or those rains forcing action to
protect people or property - and measured over three-day increments.

The reason: "What if the storm starts at noon one day and wraps up at noon the
next? That's a 24-hr precipitation amount, but which day would you assign
the value to?" asks Laurie Hogan, meteorologist at the National Weather
Service's Eastern Region Headquarters in Bohemia, NY.

The rains from Hurricane Irene could lead to widespread flooding,
life-threatening flash floods or the "significant" uprooting of trees,
according to the National Hurricane Center.

Some record rains are more than a century old. New York's 11.83 inches and
Philadelphia's 10.09 inches both came in September of 1882. Others, like
Washington's 10.34 inches from the 3 days ended June 27, 2006, are barely 5 y ol
d.

Other E Coast city records include, in alphabetical order: Baltimore, 10.98
inches, Aug 23, 1933; Boston, 12.47 inches on Aug 19, 1955; Bridgeport,
Conn., 9.53 inches on June 19, 1972; Norfolk, Va, 11.71 inches on Sept 1,
1964; and Providence, R.I., 9.46 inches, on Oct. 7, 1962.

Metropolitan areas, unlike smaller cities or towns, have federally-owned rain
gauges placed in a consistent area. Some E Coast cities have rainfall
records dating back to 1850. The data is available in real-time, but rainfall
is officially tallied twice a day--usually at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.

The data serves a practical purpose. The 13 river forecast centers across the
country monitor the precipitation levels to help monitor a sudden surge in
river levels. Such an uptick could trigger a flood watch or even an evacuation.

MYREF: 20110829110001 msg2011082911570

[231 more news items]

---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Weather Satellites And Storm Warnings Threatened By Federal Budget Cuts

HuffPost
August 29, 2011

Detailed images taken by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) satellites over the last several days enabled weather forecasters to
provide a fairly precise picture of just when and where Hurricane Irene was
headed and how strong she would be. The satellites also relayed this critical
information early enough so that people along the storm's path had days to
stock up on food and water and, if necessary, move to higher ground.

"A difference of 5 or 10 miles per hour in a hurricane can make a difference
in as much as a foot of flooding," said Dan Satterfield, a weatherman in
Huntsville, Ala. "And every mile of accuracy you can get makes the forecast
that much more accurate, allowing you to tell people where to evacuate."

But with the recent decision by Congress to allocate less than 1/2 of the bn
dollars of funding needed to maintain and upgrade the fleet, officials warn of
an upcoming gap in the service relied upon by weather forecasters, as well as
the armed forces, search-and-rescue teams, energy companies and climate modelers
.

In 2016, NOAA anticipates that the polar-orbiting satellites most critical in
forecasting extreme weather events will die out. And without enough money to
keep research and construction on track over the next couple of years, Kathryn
Sullivan, deputy administrator for NOAA, noted that they will not be ready in
time to launch replacements.

"Based just on the current year's budget, we've projected that we are pretty
well locked in something on the order of a year-long slip," Sullivan told The
Huffington Post.

Two basic types of NOAA satellites are currently watching the weather from
above: geostationary satellites that appear to hover in place at an elevation
of 22,300 miles and polar satellites that orbit north-south from about 540
miles. Sullivan explained how critical these complementing systems were for
predictions of extreme weather events.

"When you turn on your TV, or pick up your smart phone, the three- to
seven-day weather outlook you see is coming from NOAA," she said, adding that
the endangered polar-orbiting satellites are responsible for 93% of the data
that is fed into her agency's forecast models and then provided to the likes
of The Weather Channel and AccuWeather.

So what would happen if this information wasn't included? NOAA recently got a
sneak peak by looking at data from the Feb 2011 blizzard that struck the E Coast
.

Researchers reran the same forecast model for "Snowmageddon" without the polar
satellite data and compared the result with the forecasts made during the epic
snowstorm. In the test with blinded polar satellites, the storm's predicted
track was off by tens of miles and snowfall figures fell short by nearly half,
according to Sullivan.

"But in the real world, with models properly fed by satellites," she said,
"our forecast said 18 to 22 inches and it turned out to be 19. We hit the bulls-
eye."

"Think about a world in which you have to cut your confidence in half," added
Sullivan, suggesting scenarios in which the public may receive an
underestimate of the risk posed by an event and fail to adequately prepare, or
even begin to ignore dire forecasts if prior severe weather predictions
weren't realized.

The blizzard, like Hurricane Irene, was an ocean-based storm. As Satterfield
pointed out in an interview with HuffPost, "we don't have people on the ocean"
to report the weather conditions necessary to supply the models.

Orbiting in sync with the earth, geostationary satellites offer a restricted
view of the oceans. But thanks to the distances traveled by orbiting
satellites -- imagine the stripe-by-stripe trajectory of an orange peel --
they are able to keep close watch of the oceans, covering the entire earth
twice a day and providing accurate long-range forecasts. These instruments,
which can measure temperature, pressure and other physical and chemical
properties, are therefore crucial for protecting the more than 1/2 of
Americans that live along coastlines prone to extreme weather. Geostationary
satellites also have a hard time seeing high latitudes, leaving residents of
Alaska and northern Canada to rely even more heavily on polar satellites.

But the geostationary satellites still play a significant role. These cameras
"never miss a beat," said Sullivan. They can scan far and wide, and are key in
short-term forecasts. NOAA's shrunken budget also threatens the research and
development of the next generation of these instruments (GOES-R). As
Satterfield noted, US satellite technology is 20 y old and already well behind E
urope.

The fiscal y will come to an end in about a month. While it is too early to
tell what the budget outcome will be for 2012, Sullivan noted that her agency
"remained concerned."

That perspective is shared by a bipartisan group of congressional leaders. As
the National Journal reports, John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)
were among 14 senators who signed a letter urging the Senate Appropriations
Committee to consider the weather satellite program in the 2012 budget. "We
are concerned that lack of funding now will bring about unnecessary death and
destruction in the future, when there are no accurate multiday forecasts of
severe weather," wrote the senators.

"The nation is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, and this y has
been a record-breaker," Jane Lubchenco, administrator for NOAA, told an
audience in Denver earlier this month. "With climate change, we are loading
the dice in favor of these more severe weather events."

Before Hurricane Irene struck, total 2011 losses had already reached more than
$35 billion. Irene is expected to add at least another $3 bn to that figure.

Of course, less preparation -- or a stronger storm -- could have resulted in
even greater costs.

Satterfield also emphasized the financial price that would be posed by further
NOAA budget cuts. "If the geospatial weather satellites could only see
hurricanes," he said, "they would still be worth 100 times what they cost."

MYREF: 20110829170002 msg2011082931557

[230 more news items]

---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [daily nymshifter], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Irene leaves estimated $7b in damages, kills 21

[Elsewhere, Denver (96F) and Austin (112F) both scored record highs
the same day as Irene started battering NYc. But it's probably just
another in a long line of fluke occurrences].

Beth Fouhy and Samantha Gross
AP/Boston.com
Aug 29 2011

PHOTO: An aerial view showed the damage left by Hurricane Irene yesterday on
Route 12 in Hatteras Island, NC, as the roadways were cut in 5 locations.

New York - Stripped of hurricane rank, Tropical Storm Irene spent the last of
its fury yesterday, leaving treacherous flooding and millions without power -
but an unfazed New York and relief that it was nothing like the nightmare
authorities feared.

Slowly, the E Coast surveyed the damage, up to $7 bn by one private
estimate. The center of Irene crossed into Canada late yesterday, but for many
in the United States the danger had not passed.

Rivers and creeks turned into raging torrents tumbling with limbs and parts of
buildings in northern New England and upstate New York.

"This is not over," President Obama said yesterday afternoon.

Flooding was widespread in Vermont, where parts of Brattleboro, Bennington,
and several other communities were submerged.

One woman was swept away and feared drowned in the Deerfield River.

In Philadelphia, the mayor lifted the city's 1st state of emergency since 1986.

The storm was blamed for the collapses of 7 buildings, but no one was hurt and
everyone was accounted for. People kept their eyes on the rivers. The
Schuylkill was expected to reach 15 feet.

Meanwhile, the nation's most populous region looked to a new wk and the
arduous process of getting back to normal.

New York lifted its evacuation order for 370k people and said it hoped to have
its subway, shut down for the 1st time by a natural disaster, rolling again
today, though maybe not in time for the morning commute. Philadelphia
restarted its trains and buses.

"All in all," said Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York, "we are in pretty good s
hape."

At least 21 people died, most of them when trees crashed through roofs or onto c
ars.

The main New York power company, Consolidated Edison, did not have to go
through with a plan to cut electricity to Lower Manhattan to protect its
equipment. Engineers had worried that salty seawater would damage the wiring.

The center of Irene passed over Central Park at midmorning, with the storm
packing 65 mile-per-hour winds.

By evening, with its giant figure-six shape brushing over New England and
drifting east, it was down to 50 miles per hour. It was expected to drift into
Canada.

The Northeast was spared the urban nightmare some had worried about - crippled
infrastructure, stranded people, and windows blown out of skyscrapers. Early
assessments showed "it wasn't as bad as we thought it would be," Governor
Chris Christie of New Jersey said.

Later in the day, the extent of the damage became clearer. Flood waters were
rising across New Jersey, closing side streets and major highways, including
the New Jersey Turnpike and Interstate 295.

In Essex County, authorities used a 5-ton truck to ferry people away from
their homes as the Passaic River neared its expected crest last night.

Twenty homes on Long Island Sound in Connecticut were destroyed by churning
surf. The torrential rain chased 100s of people in upstate New York from their
homes and washed out 137 miles of the state's main highway.

The storm system knocked out power for 4 1/2 mn people along the Eastern
Seaboard. Power companies were picking through uprooted trees and reconnecting
lines in the S and had restored electricity to 100s of 1000s of people by
yesterday afternoon.

The director of the Canadian Hurricane Centre, Chris Fogarty, warned of
flooding and wind damage in eastern Canada and said the heaviest rainfall was
expected in Quebec, where about 250k homes were without power.

In the United States, with the worst of the storm over, hurricane experts
assessed the preparations and concluded that, far from hyping the danger,
authorities had done the right thing by being cautious.

Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center, called it a
textbook case.

"They knew they had to get people out early," he said. "I think absolutely
lives were saved."

In the storm's wake, 100s of 1000s of passengers still had to get where they
were going. Airlines said about 9k flights were canceled.

Officials said the 3 major New York-area airports will resume most flights
this morning. Philadelphia International Airport reopened in the afternoon,
and flights resumed around Washington, which took a glancing blow from the storm
.

In the South, authorities still were not sure how much damage had been done.
Governor Beverly Perdue of N Carolina said some parts of her state were unreacha
ble.

Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia had initially warned that Irene could be a
catastrophic monster with record storm surges of up to 8 feet. But the mayor
of Virginia Beach suggested on Twitter that the damage was not as bad as
feared, as did the mayor of Ocean City, Md.

The 21 deaths attributed to the storm included 6 in N Carolina, 4 in
Virginia, 4 in Pennsylvania, 2 in New York, 2 in rough surf in Florida, and
one each in Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey.

MYREF: 20110829190002 msg2011082924914

[230 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

8 dead, P1B losses in wake of `Mina'

Victor Reyes
Business Insight Malaya
Tue August 30, 2011

Eight more fatalities from typhoon "Mina" have been recorded, bringing the
death toll to 16. 8 are missing, according to the National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council.

Initial information showed P1 bn damage to infrastructure and agriculture.

The number of affected residents in 4 regions hit by Mina rose to at least
230k or more than double Sun's tally.

NDRRMC executive director and concurrent Office of Civil Defense administrator
Benito Ramos said the directly-hit Cagayan province remains without
electricity, along with other areas in Central Luzon and Cordillera
Administrative Region.

Ten 10 bridges and 33 road sections remained close to traffic yesterday "due
to a series of major and minor slides, scoured slope protections, eroded
shoulders, and floodwaters," Ramos said.

He appealed to the people to remain vigilant, saying Mina will continue to
bring rains.

Mina (international name: Nanmadol) weakened into a storm yesterday morning
and left the country in the afternoon. It also left Taiwan and headed for China.

Weather forecaster Buddy Javier said Mina would continue to enhance the
southwest monsoon in the next 24 to 48 hours, bringing isolated rains with
gusty winds at the eastern section of Northern Luzon.

Of the fatalities, 6 are from Benguet, 3 from Ilocos Sur, 2 each from
Pangasinan and Ilocos Norte, and one each from Zambales, Catanduanes and
Quezon City .

Ramos said 4 of the 8 missing are from Abra and one each from La Union, Ilocos
Sur, Kalinga, and Benguet.

President Aquino said government is studying the possible expansion of crop
insurance in view of the millions in damage to crops during natural disasters.

Aquino said he also wants the disaster risk mapping to include a matching of
crops to weather and level of calamity risk.

The Philippine Crop Insurance Corp. (PCIC) offers insurance for rice and corn,
high-value commercial crop insurance, livestock insurance, non-crop
agricultural asset insurance, and term insurance power packages.

The insurance for rice, corn, and high-value crops covers losses due to
natural calamities, plant pests and diseases from direct planting to the time
of harvest.

Aquino said a crop should no longer be planted if it is not suitable to a
typhoon-prone or drought-prone area. He said strains that are resistant to El
Niño and La Niña should also be developed.

He said even if natural disasters are a fact of life in the Philippines,
government agencies led by the agriculture department and universities are
studying how to minimize their impacts.

MYREF: 20110830060001 msg2011083019310

[232 more news items]

---
If AGW could predict future climate I would believe it is true.
Currently it does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
Which you can do without even measuring atmospheric CO2.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Nanmadol floods homes in Taiwan, heads for China

[In other news, the Wash Post reports 400 are still missing in Taiwan after
a landslide caused by the typhoon. Elsewhere, Irene has left flooding up
and down the US NE, much of in Vermont].

USA Today
Aug 30 2011

Taipei, Taiwan (AP) - A typhoon that flooded homes, roads and farmland in
Taiwan with more than 20 inches of rain left the island Mon and headed to
southeastern China.

PHOTO: Scooter riders push their motorbikes through floodwaters caused by
Typhoon Nanmadol in Linbian, Taiwan.

Typhoon Nanmadol stayed over Taiwan for only a few hours and was weaker than
when it pummeled the Philippines, where at least 16 people died and another 8
were missing.

One death in Taiwan was attributed to the storm -- a motorcyclist hit by
debris -- and disruption to everyday life was extensive.

Some 30k households in southern and eastern Taiwan lost power, 8k people
were evacuated and scores of roads and bridges were closed due to the heavy
rain. Offices and schools were closed in the southeast as well as in the
capital, Taipei, which escaped the brunt of the storm.

In a southwestern county, civil defense crews used small boats to rescue
people from communities inundated by flash flooding. Dozens of homes were
flooded. CTI cable news station footage showed the aftermath of landslides in
Pingtung township and several homes partially submerged by water.

Pingtung is just to the S of the mountainous regions where more than 500
people died 2 y ago in mudslides spawned by torrential rains associated with
Typhoon Morakot, the most devastating storm to hit the island in 1/2 a century.

A slow government response to that catastrophe prompted a fusillade of
criticism aimed at President Ma Ying-jeou, who is up for re-election this Jan.

After Morakot, Ma said he was reorienting the major mission of the island's
armed forces toward disaster relief and away from defending against a possible
Chinese invasion -- the 2 sides split amid civil war in 1949.

The change was evident over the weekend, as the military dispatched troops and
rescue equipment to vulnerable areas, unlike during Morakot.

The typhoon, slow-moving with an enormous cloud band, drenched the northern
Philippines for days before pummeling it with fierce winds. Landslides,
flooding and collapsed walls caused many of the casualties, officials there said
.

MYREF: 20110830080002 msg2011083019008

[233 more news items]

---
Currently [AGW] does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

While they all say the earth is warming, I am not aware of a single
definition of this term, nor a scientific test which shows whether the earth
is in fact warming, cooling or staying the same.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 19 May 2011 14:37 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Storm Katia gathers momentum in Atlantic

AP
08.30.11, 05:23 PM EDT

Miami -- Tropical Storm Katia continues to gain strength as it moves
west-northwest across the Atlantic.

Katia (KAH'-tee-yah) has maximum sustained winds late Tue afternoon of 60 mph
(97 kph), a 20 mph increase over Tue morning. The US National Hurricane
Center in Miami says continued strengthening is forecast and Katia could
become a hurricane by Wed.

Katia is centered about 750 miles W of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and
is moving at 20 mph (32 kph). Hurricane specialist Michael Brennan said Tue
morning that Katia could affect the Caribbean, but that it was too early to
tell if it would hit the US.

The storm's name replaces Katrina in the rotating storm roster because of the
catastrophic damage from the 2005 storm.

MYREF: 20110831073453 msg2011083125995

[232 more news items]

---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity. It proves that all science is lies
and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Vermont begins recovery from severe Irene flooding

Related:
Millions without power after Irene
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/

Obama officials to tour hurricane destruction
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/irene-obama-cabinet-visit.html

Obama's uncle arrested on suspicion of DUI, White House not commenting
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/president-obamas-uncle-arreste
d-for-dui-white-house-not-commenting.html

Maeve Reston
Nation Now
August 30, 2011 | 12:53 pm

Woodstock, Vt -- 2 days after Hurricane Irene sent as much as 12 inches of
rain and flash floods coursing through the Green Mountain state, Vermonters
set about the work of digging out as federal officials arrived to survey the
damage and bring aid to more than a dozen towns that were still isolated
across the state.

Bulldozers and dump trucks fanned out across the state under a brilliant blue
sky Tue to clear away the trees, propane tanks and debris that had been
dragged down the state's rivers and tributaries during the weekend's flash
floods. Trucks from the Federal Emergency Management Agency arrived Mon to
assist those affected by the storm.

Utility officials had made progress, restoring power to 30k households
after the storm rolled through Sun, but 20k households were still without
power, and some areas, including parts of Woodstock, were without running water.

One of the biggest problems was the widespread damage to roads. About 500
workers were beginning to repair about 200 roads that were impassable because
of collapsed bridges and gaping sinkholes that in some instances stretched the
length of several cars.

State workers were bringing food and water by helicopter to the communities
cut off by road damage.

Vermont, like many others across the Eastern Seaboard, was declared a disaster
area by President Obama, meaning that communities will be eligible for up to
75% of infrastructure repairs. But many whose homes were damaged were discoverin
g
the limits of flood insurance or the repercussions of not having insurance.

Vermont Gov Peter Shumlin on Tue was visiting Brattleboro, Wilmington and
Ludlow with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt).

It was unclear whether Obama will visit the storm-damaged areas. "There's
still a response focus in some states, and now a recovery focus," White House
Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters Tue when asked about the president's
plans. "The president, working with the FEMA administrator and other members
of his team, [Homeland Security] Secretary [Janet] Napolitano and others, is
primarily focused on that. If we have a scheduling update to make, we'll let
you know."

MYREF: 20110831110002 msg2011083110045

[229 more news items]

---
[Call me kook:]

A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".

Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Katia nears hurricane strength with 70 mph winds

Forecaster's advice to E Coast: Don't get 'heartburn over this -- not yet'

Video: Tropical Storm Katia strengthening in Atlantic
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44326779/ns/weather/

MSNBC
2011-08-31T21:01:47

See current storm data and paths of earlier storms from this season.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather/t/hurricane-tracker/

Miami -- Tropical Storm Katia was expected to strengthen into a hurricane over
the open Atlantic on Wed night, while another mass of thunderstorms in the
western Caribbean has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm and could move
into the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

At 5 pm ET, Katia had sustained winds of 70 miles per hour and would become
the second hurricane of the June-through-Nov Atlantic hurricane season if
those winds reach 74 mph.

Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center in Miami expected that to
happen Wed night.

Katia was forecast to then become a major hurricane with winds over 111 mph on
Sun, but it was still too early to tell whether it would threaten land.

The National Hurricane Center cautioned the public -- still recovering along
parts of the E Coast from Irene -- not to stress over the storm yet, even
though it's over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment, 2
ingredients that could propel it to become a major hurricane.

"It's got a lot of ocean to go. There's no way at this point to say if it will
make any impacts, let alone when it might make them," said Dennis Feltgen, a
meteorologist and spokesman at the National Hurricane Center. "There's a
reason we don't do forecasts more than 5 days in advance -- the information
just isn't good. The error beyond that just isn't acceptable."

Some models showed Katia veering away from the E Coast. But Feltgen said it's
simply too soon for coastal residents to tell.

"Folks along the E Coast shouldn't be getting a lot of heartburn over this --
not yet," he said.

At 5 pm ET, Katia was about 1,285 miles E of the Leeward Islands. It was
moving rapidly west-northwest at 20 mph, and was forecast to turn northwest in
a couple of days on a course that would keep it away from the Caribbean
islands.

Hurricane Irene rampaged up the US E Coast over the weekend and authorities on
the US Atlantic seaboard are keeping an eye on Katia to see which path it
takes.

Long-range computer models, which can be off by 100s of miles, show Katia
nearing the mid-Atlantic island of Bermuda in about a week. Several models
turned it N away from the US E Coast.

The Atlantic hurricane season typically brings 11 or 12 named storms. Katia
is already the 11th, and with 1/2 of the season still ahead it is shaping up
to be the unusually busy y that was predicted.

In the Gulf of Mexico, energy companies were keeping watch on a mass of
thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center said there was a 30% chance of it developing
into a tropical storm in the next 2 days. Earlier Wed, the chances were just
10 percent.

MYREF: 20110902030002 msg2011090228974

[230 more news items]

---

Remember who you're talking to. :)
The guy quotes Dyson without knowing Dyson accepts AGW;

Dyson accepts AGW???
News to me!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], Mar 2 16:10 EST 2011

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Depression 13 (Atlantic Ocean)

[Tropical storm warnings are in effect from TX to LA as 3 storms form in the
Atlantic and Gulf; another pair are swirling in the N Pacific. NBC reports
1 mn people in the US NE are still without power after hurricane Irene].

NASA
09.02.11

NASA Watching Atlantic Tropics: Katia, Tropical Depression 13 and System 94L

GOES image showing Katia, TD13 and System 94L.

There are 3 areas of tropical trouble brewing in the Atlantic Ocean Basin
today and they'll be there over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

NOAA's GOES-13 satellite today provided a look at the location and development
of Hurricane Katia in the central Atlantic, newborn Tropical Depression 13,
and developing System 94L in the N Atlantic off the New England coast.

The GOES-13 image was created by NASA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The image showed Katia to be the most
well-organized of the 3 systems, although Tropical Depression 13 and System
94L are developing the typical hallmark "comma shape" of a tropical storm.

3D look at Tropical Depression 13 from NASA's TRMM Satellite on Sept 1.
Loading Image...

Here's a 3-D look at Tropical Depression 13 from NASA's TRMM Satellite on Sept
1. Some of the highest thunderstorm towers in that area were shown by PR data
to reach heights of over 15km (~9.3 miles) and there were areas of heavy rain
- which is going to affect the shoreline.. waves of rainfall to move
inland. Credit: NASA/Goddard Tropical

Depression 13 is the only one of the 3 causing watches and warnings, although
Katia is roughing up the surf in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression 13
was already causing a lot of problems on Sept. 2 with heavy rainfall along the
Louisiana coast, especially because it was almost stationary.

Tropical Depression 13 formed during the early morning (Eastern Daylight Time)
on Sept. 2 S of the Louisiana coast. It is a large area of low pressure, whose
clouds appear to take about almost 1/2 of the Gulf of Mexico on GOES-13
satellite imagery today. Because it is very slow moving, the threat for
flooding is serious in the Northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Tropical Depression 13 was observed on Sept. 1 by NASA's Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite on Sept 1 and TRMM noticed areas of heavy
rainfall, where rain was falling at over 2 inches (50 mm) per hour. Some of
the highest thunderstorm towers in that area were shown by precipitation radar
data to reach heights of over 15km (~9.3 miles) indicating strong
thunderstorms and a lot of power in the depression. The forecast on Sept. 2
calls for bands of rain to affect the Louisiana shoreline today.

A Tropical storm warning was in effect early today, Sept. 2 from Pascagoula,
Miss. W to Sabine Pass, Texas, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas. Although expected to move N it will do so slowly and that
means heavy rainfall and large rainfall totals for the Gulf coast. The NHC
expects 10 to 15 inches over southern parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and
Alabama, locally up to 20 inches. Storm surge will also be an issue as
Tropical Depression 13 continues to come together. Storm surges of 2 to 4 feet
above ground level are expected along the northern Gulf Coast.

At 11 a.m. EDT on Sept. 2, Tropical Depression 13 was about 230 miles
south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, or 190 miles southwest of the mouth of
the Mississippi River near 27.3 N and 91.5 West. It had maximum sustained
winds near 35 mph (55 kmh) and was creeping to the northwest at 2 mph (4
kmh). Minimum central pressure was near 1005 millibars.

At 11 a.m. TD13 was nearly stationary S of the Louisiana coast and peppering
it with rainbands, dropping heavy rainfall. Flooding is a serious threat this
weekend across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern Louisiana tonight.

The system is forecast to head northward and make landfall in Louisiana over
the weekend as Tropical Storm Lee.

The Atlantic Ocean is doing its best to remind everyone that we're nearing the
peak of hurricane season with triple tropical trouble.

MYREF: 20110903100001 msg2011090329545

[231 more news items]

---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon kills 18 in Japan, many missing

Tokyo, Sept 4 -- Typhoon Talas, which left western Japan Sun, killed at least
18 people and at least 50 others were missing, emergency officials in Tokyo said
.

At its peak Sat, Talas had 75 mph winds and soaked western Japan with
torrential rains that triggered deadly landslides, the Kyodo news agency reporte
d.

The typhoon moved northwest over the Sea of Japan Sun and was downgraded to a
tropical depression, forecasters said.

Federal officials said damage assessment and rescue teams were being
dispatched to the region.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said the disastrous rainfall and flooding was
because the 12th storm of the season moved so slowly.

Talas advanced northward off the W coast after crossing 2 prefectures on the
main island of Honshu, the agency said.

Among the known fatalities were 3 women and 2 male teenagers in the city of
Tanabe, where a landslide swept away 6 houses, police said.

New reports were coming in Sun of other houses and buildings that were swept
away by landslides or flooding, Kyodo said.

MYREF: 20110905062253 msg2011090513558

[239 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Storm Lee's outer bands pelt Gulf Coast

AP
Sep 3, 2011 5:59am

New Orleans (AP) -- Southern Louisiana is feeling the effects of Tropical
Storm Lee as heavy rain pounds the region and other parts of the Gulf Coast
get a soaking.

The storm's center is plodding slowly toward land, where businesses are
already beginning to suffer on what would normally be a bustling holiday
weekend. The storm could bring as many as 20 inches of rain to some areas.

Tropical storm warning flags are flying from Mississippi to Texas and flash
flood warnings extend along the Alabama coast into the Florida Panhandle.

The storm is expected to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast late
today and turn E toward New Orleans -- not good news for drought-parched Texas.

About 1/2 the Gulf's normal daily oil production has been cut as rigs were evacu
ated.

Governors in Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as the mayor of New Orleans,
declared states of emergency.

MYREF: 20110905070102 msg2011090512072

[235 more news items]

---
[Asked an answered:]
So How Do Met Office Carbon Based Forecasts Compare To Solar Based Forecasts?
-- BONZO [various nyms], 25 May 2011 16:00 +1000

Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Storm Lee hits Louisiana coast

[The first spinoff tornadoes from Lee were reported a few hrs ago].

Kathy Finn
Reuters
Sun Sep 4, 2011 6:04am EDT

Related:
* New Orleans mayor tells city to stay alert on storm Sat, Sep 3 2011
* WRAPUP 7-New Orleans braces for Tropical Storm Lee Sat, Sep 3 2011
* Alabama, Mississippi get rain and warnings ahead of Lee Sat, Sep 3 2011
* 6 y after Katrina, New Orleans braces for storm Fri, Sep 2 2011
* Tropical Storm Lee forms near Louisiana Coast: NHC Fri, Sep 2 2011

NASA handout image shows a visible image of Tropical Storm Lee
taken from the GOES-13 satellite at 9:32 am EDT on September 3, 2011.
-- REUTERS/NASA/NOAA GOES Project/Handout.
http://www.reuters.com/article/slideshow?articleId=USTRE7813G820110904&slide=1


New Orleans (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Lee barreled into southern Louisiana's
coast on Sun, as New Orleans prepared for one of the biggest tests of its
flood defenses since Hurricane Katrina devastated the city in 2005.

The National Hurricane Center said Lee's center was about 80 miles W of
Morgan City, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph at around 5
am ET.

Winds were expected to weaken gradually in the next couple of days and up to
20 inches of rain was expected to fall on southeast Louisiana, the Miami-based
center said.

In New Orleans, about 70 miles W of Morgan City, the storm recalled Hurricane
Katrina, which flooded 80% of the city, killed 1,500 people and caused more
than $80 bn in damage to the popular tourist destination.

Half the city lies below sea level and is protected by a system of levees and
flood gates.

The levees can process about one inch of rainfall per hour and the storm's
slow-moving nature remained a worry, officials said. There were isolated
reports of flooding in roads and homes.

"Don't go to sleep on this storm," Mayor Mitch Landrieu told residents. He
said stormy conditions could continue for the next 36 hours.

New Orleans is under a flash flood watch through Mon night, the National
Weather Service said. Potential damage from wind gusts will also be a concern,
it said.

No injuries or fatalities were reported in Louisiana, but rough waters off
Galveston Island in Texas led to the drowning death of a 34-year-old man, an
island official said.

TIDAL SURGE

Lee's tidal surge could spur coastal flooding in Louisiana, Mississippi and
Alabama before drenching a large swath of the southeast and Appalachian
regions next week.

Storm winds were already pushing Gulf waters inland, slamming barriers in
low-lying areas and prompting mandatory evacuations in the coastal communities
of Lafitte, Crown Point and Barataria.

In Mississippi, local governments were taking precautions as forecasters
predicted tides could be 2 feet to 4 feet above normal.

About 8k houses were without electrical power due to the storm, down from
about 35k earlier on Sat, according to utility Entergy Corp..

Over 60% of US offshore oil production, all based in the Gulf of Mexico, and
nearly 55% of offshore gas production were shut as of Fri, according to the US
government. Most of that output should quickly return once the storm passes.

Major offshore producers like Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp and BP Plc
shut down platforms and evacuated staff earlier this week.

Shell and Anadarko Petroleum Corp started to return workers to offshore
platforms in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sat.

Low-lying refineries in Louisiana that collectively account for 12% of
US refining capacity were watching the storm closely, but reported no disruption
s.

ConocoPhillips' 247k barrel-per-day refinery in Alliance, Louisiana, 25 miles
S of New Orleans, was operating normally as Lee moved overhead, the company said
.

In the open Atlantic, Hurricane Katia weakened to a tropical storm on Sat and
was forecast to wobble back and forth between hurricane and tropical storm
strength far from land, the hurricane center said.

MYREF: 20110905073003 msg201109057468

[234 more news items]

---
Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Thousands left stranded after Japan's most deadly typhoon in 7 years

[Record 60" of rain has claimed at least 27 lives in Japan as of today. Other
reports say another storm is on the way].

Daniel Bardsley (Foreign Correspondent)
The National
Sep 6, 2011

PHOTO: Volunteer firefighters search destroyed houses for missing people after
heavy downpours by Typhoon Talas caused a landslide at Tanabe, central Japan.

Rescuers yesterday tried to reach 1000s left stranded after Japan suffered its
most deadly typhoon damage in 7 years.

Typhoon Talas, which brought heavy winds and rainfall to the country's
southern areas on Sat night, has killed at least 32 people and left 57 missing.

It struck almost 6 m after the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck
the NE of the country.

About 21k were killed or remain missing from the March disasters, which
resulted in the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl at the Fukushima
nuclear plant.

Television pictures of the devastation caused by Talas showed scenes that
echoed the horror of those after the March 11 tsunami, with neighbourhoods
flooded and cars tossed around like children's toys.

Houses have been buried by mudslides, while bridges and railways have been
torn apart.

At least 3,600 people remained cut off from rescue efforts yesterday after
roads and bridges were damaged.

One village received more rainfall from the typhoon than the 1,528 millimetres
Tokyo records in an average year.

With more than 750 members of Japan's military sent to the worst-hit
prefectures, the country's new prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, who only took
office on Fri, insisted the authorities were sparing no effort in dealing with
the crisis.

"We will do our best in saving lives and finding the missing," he said.

Police and firefighters also tried to reach those left stranded, in some cases
pulling people out of their houses with ropes.

Many of the missing are thought likely to be buried by mud.

Amid the large-scale destruction, which officials said would take m to
rebuild, were countless individual tragedies.

Among the most poignant was that suffered by Shinichi Teramoto, the mayor of a
small town called Nachikatsuura in Wakayama, the worst-hit prefecture.

Rescuers found the body of his 24-year-old daughter, Saki Teramoto, who went
missing on Sat, a day before her engagement ceremony was due to be held.

Mr Teramoto's wife, Masako, 51, is still missing.

Mr Teramoto has continued to direct relief operations despite his bereavement,
after the town saw much of its infrastructure damaged.

Seiji Yamamoto, an official in Wakayama prefecture, said "there are so many
roads out it is hard to count them all".

"Hundreds of homes have been flooded," he added.

Nearly 1/2 a mn people were ordered out of or advised to leave their homes
ahead of the arrival of the typhoon, which caused greatest damage in the
southern island of Shikoku and in southern parts of the main island, Honshu.

Yesterday, 100k people were still covered by evacuation advisories.

Talas - named after the Philippine word for "sharpness" - was downgraded to a
tropical storm and on Sun had moved off into the Sea of Japan. The death toll
is likely to be the worst Japan has suffered from a typhoon since 2004, when
Typhoon Tokage left 98 people dead or missing.

Parts of Japan are especially susceptible to flooding after heavy rainfall
because of their hilly terrain, said Limin Zhang, a flooding specialist at the
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

There are "really rapid and short rivers which ... run into areas [that] might
be susceptible to flooding", he said.

Typhoon Talas struck just as Japan had was focusing on the possibility of
natural disasters of a different kind. On Thu, the country held its 1st
nationwide earthquake drill since the earthquake and tsunami in March.

MYREF: 20110906070002 msg2011090617102

[235 more news items]

---
QUOTE: Pseudo-scientists use randomness to obfuscate the relationship
between theory and observation. They often give it a pompous,
scientific-sounding name like "natural climatic variation".
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 26 Aug 2011 10:35 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Former Typhoon Talas (2011-12) and Typhoon Noru (2011-13) bringing rain storm th
reat to Hokkaido through September 6

Katz Ueno
YokosoNews
Mon, September 5th, 2011 (Japan Standard Time)

Former Typhoon Talas (2011-12) and Typhoon Noru (2011-13) bringing rain storm
threat to Hokkaido through Tue, September 6

Hokkaido needs extra attention for rain storm & evacuation advisories and
orders are still in place

After leaving the catastrophic damages mainly in Wakayama, S of Nara and S of
Mie Pref, Typhoon Talas is now downgraded to tropical depression.

However, there are still some evacuation advisories and orders in place. In
addition, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) gives warning to Hokkaido for
the potential historic rain storm since 1981.

From Tue, September 6, various weather forecast agencies says, the most area
of Japan starts clear up and back to normal. (But a lot of clean-up to do in
affected area).

The article was 1st posted at 11:00pm and revised at 11:42pm on Mon, September
5 (JST).

Hokkaido rain warning

According to NHK, JMA held the press conference in the afternoon of Mon,
September 5, 2011. The tropical depression (formerly Typhoon Talas (2011-12)),
and Typhoon Noru (2011-13) are moving towards N on the W and E of
Hokkaido. The tropical depression and Noru are bringing the humid air and the
humid air may meet at Hokkaido, and may bring the historical rain storm.

According to Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory, the pattern is very
similar to the rain storm in August 1981.

In 1981, Typhoon Phyllis (1981-12) traveled through E of Japan, and a warm
front brought the humid air. And then it met on top of Hokkaido between August
3 and 5, 1981. It brought 410 mm (16 inches) of rainfall in Iwamizawa,
Hokkaido. In addition, Typhoon Thad (1981-15) hit Hokkaido between August 21
through 23.

Two major typhoons double-punched Hokkaido resulted in 10 casulties. And over
50k buildings were flooded.

If you are currently in Hokkaido, please pay attention to the warnings from
authorities. And evacuate immediately if you feel unsafe.

At this point, no actual damages were reported. It may not leave any
damages. But it's always good to be prepared rather than unprepared.

Catastrophic damages in Wakayama, S of Nara and S of Mie & evacuation
advisories and orders are still in place

As times passes, the damages from Typhoon Talas (2011-12) started being revealed
.

According to NHK as at 9:55pm on September 5, 33 people are dead and 54 people
are still missing.

Wakayama: 21 death and 32 missing

Nara: 4 death and 20 missing.

Mie: 2 death

Tokushima: 3 death

Ehime: 1 death

Kagawa: 1 death

Hiroshima: 1 death

HyogoL 1 missing

Kagoshima: 1 missing

In Nachikatsuura, Wakayama, Mayor Shinichi Teramoto, lost his daughter on the
day of her engagement ceremony. His wife is still missing. His house is
completely gone. However, he hasn't gone back to his house. After seeing his
daughter's body for 30min, he has come back to work against the disaster.

According to Ministry of Land, they have the rain gauge in Kamikitayama,
Nara. It had recorded 2,400 mm of rainfall in 5 days since August 30, which is
the 2/3 of the annual average.

Although the weather became calm among the most of W Japan, unstable land
condition leaves the threat of landslide.

In Totsukawa, Nara, the landlides stopped the stream of the river and formed
the natural dam. Totsukawa city hall gave the warning that the natural dam
could collapse at any moment (As at 10:45pm 9/5 (JST))

In Kiho-cho, Mie, there are still 30 residents isolated in the mountain area
due to the landslide (10:54pm 9/5 (JST))

Evaculation advisories and orders are still effective to over 9k households
in 5 prefectures such as Wakayama, Mie, Nara.

According to NTT West, over 43k landlines are out of services in some area of
Wakayama, Nara and Mie as the night of September 5.

The mobile phone services are also experiencing the availability issues
in part of Wakayama, Nara, Mie, Ehime, Okayama and Gunma.

Preparing against Typhoon

In case of typhoon disaster

* Know nearby evaculation center

* Tell your friends and family to get contact point besides telephone

+ YokosoNews recommend

o Twitter

o Facebook

o Skype

o NOT cellular phone or landline

o Telephone line should be used for immediate emergency calls

* Buy a portable radio and batteries

* Don't leave any easy-to-be-flown objects outside of your house

* Check the weather forecast extra carefully and more frequently

* Expect the delays or cancellations of the public transportation and road closu
re

What not to do

* Don't go close to river.

* Don't go close to ocean.

* Don't go close to mountain or cliff where the possibility of landslides.

* Don't do anything that you are not 100% sure that it's safe

Useful weather info sites

* JMA Tropical Cyclone Information
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
* JMA Weather Warnings / Advisory
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/

Ask YokosoNews

If the typhoon gets serious, YokosoNews will provide up-to-date weather
forecast via Twitter and Facebook, and may start emergecy broadcast at
YokosoNews.tv .

You're welcome to leave a comment in this page, Facebook or mention
@YokosoNews on Twitter if you want to know about the particuler region.

MYREF: 20110906073003 msg2011090619419

[233 more news items]

---
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie mining lobby fluff]

Katia ramps up power, but seen missing E Coast

Forecasters have predicted a very active 2011 Atlantic season with between 8
and 10 hurricanes, above the long-term June to Nov average of 6 to 7 hurricanes.
[For the trends see <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html> ].

Pascal Fletcher
Mon Sep 5, 2011 5:37pm EDT

Related News:
* Scenarios - Katia and Lee threaten insurance companies Sun, Sep 4 2011

Miami (Reuters) - Hurricane Katia powered up to a major Category 3 storm on
Mon, but was expected to veer away from the E Coast later this week, avoiding
a direct hit on a seaboard already battered by earlier Hurricane Irene.

The US National Hurricane Center warned however that US E Coast beaches should
still watch out in the coming wk for large swells generated by Katia which
could cause life-threatening coastal surf and rip currents.

By late Mon afternoon, Katia's winds had strengthened to 115 miles per hour,
making it a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity
scale as it tracked northwestward on a path over the ocean between Bermuda and
the Caribbean, the Miami-based center said.

It said additional intensification was forecast through Tue followed by little
predicted change on Wed.

NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg told Reuters the greatest threat from
Katia for the US eastern seaboard was likely to be the large swells, and
resulting dangerous coastal surf and currents, she generated on her path.

"Even though these storms may stay offshore, they still can be a deadly
threat, especially to people going to the beach," Berg said. "It may be a
beautiful nice day out and you may just not know that there are rip currents
there that can pull you out to sea," he added.

Forecasters and residents of the US Atlantic seaboard have been keeping an
anxious eye on Katia after Hurricane Irene raked up the E Coast from the
Carolinas to Maine last weekend. It killed at least 40 people and caused
extensive flooding, especially in New Jersey and Vermont.

Katia, the second hurricane of the June-through-Nov Atlantic season, has kept
forecasters guessing for days about its potential threat to the United States.

Berg said the latest five-day forecast predicted the hurricane would swing N
and then northeastward from Thu in between Bermuda and the US mainland, pushed
away from the E Coast by a developing low pressure trough.

This would guide the storm around a ridge of high pressure in the central
Atlantic known as the Bermuda High.

"The steering flow right now is pushing the storm to the northwest but once it
gets closer to the E Coast, it'll start feeling the effects of that trough a
little bit more, and it's going to make that sharp turn around the Bermuda
High and head out northeastward over the open Atlantic," Berg said.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARDS

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Katia's center was located about 495 miles S of
Bermuda, the mid-Atlantic British overseas territory that despite its small
size is a global reinsurance hub.

Berg said there was still a one in 10 chance parts of the E Coast could
experience tropical storm-force winds when Katia passed well offshore later
this week, especially jutting coastal areas like N Carolina's Outer Banks
and Cape Cod in Massachusetts. Bermuda could also experience such winds.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lee tested New Orleans' flood defenses over the
weekend, and on Mon its weakened remnants threatened to dump heavy rain on
states from Texas to Florida.

The September 10 peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season was approaching,
and hurricane spotters were already watching another tropical wave, located
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off Africa.

This was moving westwards and the NHC gave it a "high" chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Forecasters have predicted a very active 2011 Atlantic season with between 8
and 10 hurricanes, above the long-term June to Nov average of 6 to 7 hurricanes.

MYREF: 20110906080138 msg201109062748

[232 more news items]

---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

East coast braced for giant surf as Hurricane Katia swells to a category 4

[With Lee claiming 1 life, Katia has strengthened again to Cat4. Elsewhere,
around 500 homes in TX have been destroyed in ongoing wildfires].

Chris Parsons
Mail
Tue, Sep 06 2011

* Forecasters warn of lethal rip currents as storm passes over Bermuda
* Insurers braced for further damage after flooding of Hurricane Irene
* Deadly Tropical Storm Lee rages ashore, spawning spin off tornadoes,
wrecking homes and causing at least 2 deaths
* 'Oh my God! I'm freaked out. It's a tornado!' Video captures the
terrifying moment a furious twister hit the New York State Thruway


Hurricane Katia could cause deadly levels of surf and rip currents off the
U.S. E Coast after being upgraded to a Category 4 storm, forecasters warned toda
y.

The storm was churning northwest on Mon night from the Atlantic Ocean
around 450 miles S of Bermuda, with gusts as high as 160 mph.

Although experts believe Katia may veer away from the E Coast later this
week, large swells from the hurricane could still cause life-threatening
coastal surf and rip currents.

PHOTO: Hurricane Katia is currently around 450 miles from Bermuda with gusts
of 160 mph, but could sweep inland

PHOTO: The storm, which could come inland next week, has now become a category
4 hurricane, the second-highest level of intensity

The storm has now reached the second-highest level on the five-step
Saffir-Simpson intensity scale as it continued its route over Bermuda and the Ca
ribbean.

A spokesperson for the National Hurricane Center, Miami, said: 'Large swells
generated by Katia are expected to affect most of the E Coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles and east-facing beaches of the Bahamas
during the next few days.

'These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditio
ns.'

Forecasters say Katia is currently producing sustained winds of 135 mph, with
occasional gusts of 160 mph.

Insurers are also bracing themselves incase Katia does come inland, just days
after the extensive flooding of Hurricane Irene and torrential rain of
Tropical Storm Lee.

Global insurers and reinsurers have already suffered catastrophe losses of
more than $70 bn this year, by industry estimates, including up to $6
billion in the United States from Irene.

NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg told Reuters the greatest threat from
Katia for the US eastern seaboard was likely to be the large swells and
resulting dangerous coastal surf and currents the storm generated on its path.

Mr Berg said: 'Even though these storms may stay offshore, they still can be a
deadly threat, especially to people going to the beach.

'It may be a beautiful nice day out and you may just not know that there are
rip currents there that can pull you out to sea.'

There is still thought to be around a one in ten chance that parts of the East
Coast could experience tropical storm-force winds when Katia passed well
offshore later this week.

Jutting coastal areas like N Carolina's Outer Banks and Cape Codd in
Massachusetts could be particularly at risk.

Katia, the second hurricane of the June-through-Nov Atlantic season, has
kept forecasters guessing for days about its potential threat to the United Stat
es.

Berg said the latest five-day forecast predicted the hurricane would swing
north and then northeastward from Thu in between Bermuda and the
U.S. mainland, pushed away from the E Coast by a developing low pressure trough.

MYREF: 20110906200002 msg201109068934

[232 more news items]

---
This ***global warming**** appears to be HIGHLY LOCALISED!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 5 Feb 2011 21:59 +1100
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Katia ramps up power, but seen missing E Coast

Pascal Fletcher
Reuters
Mon Sep 5, 2011 5:37pm EDT


Related:
* Katia and Lee threaten insurance companies Sun, Sep 4 2011

PHOTO: Hurricane Katia is seen from a window of the International Space
Station in this NASA handout picture taken August 31, 2011 and released on
September 1, 2011.


Miami (Reuters) - Hurricane Katia powered up to a major Category 3 storm on
Mon, but was expected to veer away from the E Coast later this week, avoiding
a direct hit on a seaboard already battered by earlier Hurricane Irene.

The US National Hurricane Center warned however that US E Coast beaches should
still watch out in the coming wk for large swells generated by Katia which
could cause life-threatening coastal surf and rip currents.

By late Mon afternoon, Katia's winds had strengthened to 115 miles per hour,
making it a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity
scale as it tracked northwestward on a path over the ocean between Bermuda and
the Caribbean, the Miami-based center said.

It said additional intensification was forecast through Tue followed by little
predicted change on Wed.

NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg told Reuters the greatest threat from
Katia for the US eastern seaboard was likely to be the large swells, and
resulting dangerous coastal surf and currents, she generated on her path.

"Even though these storms may stay offshore, they still can be a deadly
threat, especially to people going to the beach," Berg said. "It may be a
beautiful nice day out and you may just not know that there are rip currents
there that can pull you out to sea," he added.

Forecasters and residents of the US Atlantic seaboard have been keeping an
anxious eye on Katia after Hurricane Irene raked up the E Coast from the
Carolinas to Maine last weekend. It killed at least 40 people and caused
extensive flooding, especially in New Jersey and Vermont.

Katia, the second hurricane of the June-through-Nov Atlantic season, has kept
forecasters guessing for days about its potential threat to the United States.

Berg said the latest five-day forecast predicted the hurricane would swing N
and then northeastward from Thu in between Bermuda and the US mainland, pushed
away from the E Coast by a developing low pressure trough.

This would guide the storm around a ridge of high pressure in the central
Atlantic known as the Bermuda High.

"The steering flow right now is pushing the storm to the northwest but once it
gets closer to the E Coast, it'll start feeling the effects of that trough a
little bit more, and it's going to make that sharp turn around the Bermuda
High and head out northeastward over the open Atlantic," Berg said.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARDS

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), Katia's center was located about 495 miles S of
Bermuda, the mid-Atlantic British overseas territory that despite its small
size is a global reinsurance hub.

Berg said there was still a one in 10 chance parts of the E Coast could
experience tropical storm-force winds when Katia passed well offshore later
this week, especially jutting coastal areas like N Carolina's Outer Banks
and Cape Cod in Massachusetts. Bermuda could also experience such winds.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lee tested New Orleans' flood defenses over the
weekend, and on Mon its weakened remnants threatened to dump heavy rain on
states from Texas to Florida.

The September 10 peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season was approaching,
and hurricane spotters were already watching another tropical wave, located
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off Africa.

This was moving westwards and the NHC gave it a "high" chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Forecasters have predicted a very active 2011 Atlantic season with between 8
and 10 hurricanes, above the long-term June to Nov average of 6 to 7 hurricanes.

MYREF: 20110907220001 msg2011090719195

[231 more news items]

---
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Flood waters pour into Binghamton, breaking record

AP/Times Union
Thu, September 08, 2011

Binghamton (AP) -- The rain-swollen Susquehanna River has broken a flood
record in Binghamton.

The river has overflowed retaining walls downtown, leaving officials scrambling
to evacuate holdouts who didn't heed earlier warnings to leave neighborhoods.

The National Weather Service says the river level is over 25 feet. That's
above the 25-foot record set in 2006 and more than 11 feet above flood
stage. It's expected to rise another foot or so.

"I believe this will be a flood of historic proportions when all is said and
done," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said, according to Gannett reporters based in Albany.

"We did an aerial survey this morning. This is going to get much worse before
it gets better."

Water started coming over the walls in Binghamton at about 10 a.m., less than
12 hours after officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for sections of
the city near where the Susquehanna and Chenango rivers converge.

Evacuation orders began being issued Wed to some 20k people in the city and
neighboring communities.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee caused flooding across much of the eastern
upstate area. The Mohawk and Hudson rivers in the Capital Region are expected
to flood.

MYREF: 20110909091501 msg2011090910557

[238 more news items]

---
[Weather is responsible for climate change:]
And that's the only reason for the heat!
Strong northeast winds being superheated desert air from the inland to the
the southern capitals.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 31 Jan 2011 13:42 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Britain braces itself for Katia

Parts of Britain are bracing themselves for winds of up to 80mph and 50ft
waves when Hurricane Katia hits land on Mon.

PHOTO: Britain braces itself for Katia Palm Trees along Southend Seafront in
high winds

Patrick Sawer and Edward Malnick
Telegraph.co.uk
Sat 10 September 2011


Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to take the brunt of the storm,
which could bring gusts strong enough to uproot trees, create widespread
travel chaos and cause major damage to buildings.

The Met Office has issued an extreme weather alert, warning of floods and
"phenomenal" ocean conditions.

Katia, a Category 1 hurricane, had been expected to hit US coastal regions but
changed direction, with the 100-mile-wide storm bearing down on Britain, with
torrential rain and 90mph winds.

Experts predict there may be only a slight easing of the gusts before it hits
the UK.

Katia is expected to be the fiercest storm to hit the UK since Hurricane
Gordon in 2006 and could last for several days.

Related Articles:
* Hurricane Katia heads to the UK 09 Sep 2011
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8752674/Hurricane-Katia-heads-for-the
-UK.html
* Heavy rains from tropical Storm Lee cause flooding in US 09 Sep 2011
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8751968/Heavy-rains-f
rom-tropical-storm-Lee-cause-flooding-in-US.html

Large parts of Scotland and northern England along with most of Northern
Ireland were issued with the severe weather warnings on Fri.

The only areas of the UK not thought to be under threat are the Midlands, the
S W and S East.

A Met Office spokesman said: "The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to
come across the UK on Mon, bringing very windy weather.

"People should be aware of the risk of disruption to transport and the
possibility of damage to trees and structures. There is uncertainty about its
track and intensity and warning areas may be extended or upgraded.

"The best estimate is that northern and western parts are most at risk from
very strong winds. But all areas could potentially see impacts of Katia, with
wind gusts possibly up to 80mph.

"It is quite rare for us to be affected by a hurricane. It is maintaining a
fair amount of its strength which is why we have issued weather warnings."

Britain has already been hit by heavy rain and gale-force winds this week,
before Katia moved in across the Atlantic from the Caribbean. Experts say the
predicted high winds could coincide with high tides.

MeteoGroup UK forecaster Michael Dukes said: "Inevitably with the remnants of
a tropical storm there will be a risk of flash flooding.

"The hurricane is moving slowly and predictions show it will hit North-West
Scotland by Mon. The exact track of Katia is difficult to predict and it may
change over the next few days."

John Cangialosi, a US hurricane specialist, said that Katia would change from
a tropical system to a larger storm once it was over open sea and was heading
for Scotland.

He said: "It'll likely be a very big, significant weather system. It will
evolve into a classic wintertime storm by the time it gets there."

The Environment Agency issued a low-risk flood warning for some coastal areas
of England and Wales in the wake of the remains of Katia.

An spokesman for the agency said: "At present there is a low risk of flooding
across the N coast of Wales and the NW coast of England during Mon from strong
to gale force winds, large waves and a surge which coincide with a period of
spring tides.

"We are closely monitoring the situation but currently expect any disruption
to be minimal. However, we would urge those in coastal areas to check their
flood risk and sign up for our localised flood warnings."

In September 2006 Hurricane Gordon hit the United Kingdom with strong winds
after crossing the Atlantic, with gusts to 60mph in the Isles of Scilly and
81mph on the mainland.

The storm system produced heavy rain and thunderstorms that caused localised
flooding.

Wainfleet, in Lincolnshire recorded 1.66in of rainfall, of which almost half
fell within an hour. High winds delayed rail service and in Dawlish, Devon,
the rail line was damaged by coastal flooding.

More than 1k homes were left without power in Truro, Cornwall.

MYREF: 20110911133002 msg2011091128785

[241 more news items]

---
Ever seen film of the Polar bear bashing through the ice to get seal
cubs? Less ice more food for the Polar Bear
-- george <***@hnpl.net>, 27 Oct 2010 15:55:37 -0700

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Storm Maria headed toward Lesser Antilles

USA Today
Sep 9 2011

Miami (AP) - Tropical Storm Maria is heading toward the Lesser Antilles in the
Atlantic while Tropical Storm Nate is moving little in the Bay of Campeche off
Mexico's coast.

The US National Hurricane Center says Maria's maximum sustained winds early
Fri are near 40 mph (65 kph).

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Maartin, Saba and
St. Eustatius. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a host of islands:
Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, Montserrat, Nevis, St. Kitts, St. Barthelemy,
St. Marteen, Martinique, Dominica, the British Virgin Islands, the US Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra.

Meanwhile, Nate has prompted a tropical storm warning on Mexico's coast from
Chilitepec to Celestun. Nate's winds are near 70 mph (110 kph) and the storm
could become a hurricane.

MYREF: 20110911140002 msg2011091113622

[240 more news items]

---
I have never heard a precise definition of what "the earth is warming" is
supposed to mean.
Every other science defines its terms precisely. Not "climate science".
While they all say the earth is warming, I am not aware of a single
definition of this term, nor a scientific test which shows whether the earth
is in fact warming, cooling or staying the same.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 19 May 2011 14:37 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane hunters kept busy by 3 storms


Fourteen named storms have formed in the Atlantic so far this year, in a
hurricane season just hitting its stride, according to Dennis Feltgen of the
National Hurricane Center.

Andrea Mustain
CSMonitor.com
September 9, 2011

PHOTO: This NOAA satellite image taken Fri, Sept. 9, at 1:45 PM EDT shows
Hurricane Katia located about 385 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova
Scotia, Tropical Storm Maria, about 135 miles northeast of Barbados, and
Tropical Storm Nate, located about 150 miles W of Campeche, Mexico.

* History of Destruction: 8 Great Hurricanes
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/worst-hurricanes-america-hurricane-katrina-0470/
* Infographic: Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/hurricane-storm-season-2011-infographic-1911/
* Storm Targets: Where the Hurricanes Hit
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/hurricanes-us-counties-most-hit-1923/


With Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storms Maria and Nate swirling in the
Atlantic and over the Gulf of Mexico, Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters are
keeping busy this week, sending planes into all three storms -- the maximum
capability for the 10 weather-chasing WC-130J aircraft the unit owns.

Pilots, meteorologists and crew from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
have been flying the massive planes out of their forward operating base on the
island of St. Croix, in the Caribbean, and from their headquarters at Keesler
Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss.

Although Lt. Col. Sean Pierce, director of operations, said that juggling
schedules for the 53rd's 10 aircraft and 20 flight crews is certainly a big
challenge, he told OurAmazingPlanet the current situation isn't
extraordinary. [In the Eye of the Storm: NASA's Hurricane Hunters]

IN PICTURES: Huge Hurricanes
http://www.csmonitor.com/CSM-Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Huge-hurricanes

Another day, another storm

"Three storms -- it's somewhat routine business for the squadron here," Pierce
said. "For us, August through September is race day. You train all year," he
said, adding that although hurricane season starts months earlier, the pace of
operations picks up dramatically when August arrives.

Fourteen named storms have formed in the Atlantic so far this year, in
a hurricane season just hitting its stride, according to Dennis
Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center.

"September is the most active m in what is turning out to be a very active
season," Feltgen told OurAmazingPlanet.

The latest storm to burst onto the scene is Tropical Storm Nate, which is
lingering over a corner of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Yesterday (Sept. 7), the 1st flight headed into the storm, flying just 500
feet (152 meters) over the Gulf of Mexico. "We will increase our altitude as
storm intensity increases for obvious safety reasons," Pierce said.

The weather officer on board the aircraft saw the telltale signs that
indicated the system had rotation; in addition, its winds were whipping along
at a brisk 60 mph (97 kph). The information was passed on to the National
Hurricane Center, which then radioed back to the crew that it was official:
Tropical Storm Nate had been born.

Pierce was aboard the flight. "It was great day for us, actually, because
oftentimes you're out there looking and it takes several days," he said, "so
we were able to accomplish a lot in one flight."

Storm trouble

It was a welcome change from last week, when the 53rd had to evacuate Keesler
Air Force Base planes and personnel to Houston and St. Croix, as Tropical
Storm Lee barreled across the United States. Although the storm wasn't
forecast to rain down destruction on Biloxi, Pierce said that the high winds
would have made it impossible for the 53rd's planes to get off the ground.

"Even though we fly in hurricanes, we can't take off and land in them," Pierce
said. And when storms are raging the unit can't decide to just stay home, he
added.

Instruments and crew aboard hurricane-hunting aircraft provide information
that forecasters can't get any other way. Tropical cyclones -- the umbrella
term for tropical storms and hurricanes -- occur over the ocean, a vast region
that lacks the network of weather-sensing instruments available on
land. Storms at sea can only be tracked by satellite.

"Satellite technology is not sufficient to penetrate the upper level clouds,"
Pierce said. "The only way to do that over water is to put an aircraft into
the storm environment."

"We need these hurricane hunter aircraft planes," said the NHC's Feltgen, who
described what the planes do as essentially performing an MRI of a
hurricane. "It's going into the storm to figure out its structure, its
strength, and all that data is used in computer models to better track these
storms," he said.

Although none of the storms now raging in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico
appear to be headed for adirect hit on the continental United States very
soon, Feltgen said the Leeward Islands may feel the effects of Maria soon, and
that Nate is gaining steam.

"Nate could become a hurricane by Sat, but as far as where it's going to go,
that's anybody's guess right now," Feltgen said, and said that anyone who
lives within the reach of a hurricane should always have a plan ready.

MYREF: 20110912140002 msg2011091223946

[233 more news items]

---
[the diff between proving a positive and negative:]

Naive studies may be evidence of a kind, but really all they can do is
re-inforce studies already published. If one can fit a regression
line through some published data and it seems to show a statistically
significant connection, and it predicts much the same thing as in
published work, then we have evidence to accept the published work[...]
OTOH, if [you] get a different answer [you] are [most likely in error].

[...]
You do realise that what you have described is "an appeal to authority" -
the authority in the case being some unnamed journals - and not the
scientific method.
-- Peter Webb <***@optusnet.com.au>, 23 Nov 2010

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Katia winds set to strike Ireland a glancing blow

Rare extreme weather alert has now been issued

Dara Kelly,
IrishCentral.com
Sun, September 11, 2011, 7:06 AM

A rare extreme weather alert has been issued for Ireland in anticipation of
Hurrican Katia.

Britain's Met Office issued the alert for the Category 1 storm and warned of
130kmh winds on Mon that could cause sea flooding and "phenomenal" ocean
conditions that could be a danger to ships.

Met Eireann, predicting winds of up to 100 miles and hour , was considering
issuing a severe weather warning after putting out an advisory on Fri, reports
the Irish Independent.

Said iWeather Online Senior Forecaster Peter O'Donnell: "If you live in Clare,
Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Donegal, Derry, N Antrim or nearby parts of other
counties, and not in some deep valley with hills off to your southwest, you
should expect storm or hurricane force wind gusts between 6 am and 3pm on Mon.

"If you live in a region including most of Ulster, Leinster N and W of
Dublin, or W Munster, you should be on alert for gusts between gale and storm
force in a slightly later time frame. If you live in the southeast, you may be
off the hook for now."

Katia is carrying 145kmh winds across a 160km-wide center and tropical storm
force winds across an 800km-wide area.

"The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to arrive on Mon, bringing very
windy weather," said the Met Office's alert for Ireland.

"The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to transport and of the
possibility of damage to trees and structures.

"There remains uncertainty about its track, and warning areas may be extended
or upgraded to amber, but the best estimate is that northern and western parts
are most at risk from very strong winds."

MYREF: 20110914120002 msg2011091426771

[237 more news items]

---
[Sucked in:]

1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.

Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon No. 12 heavy rains damage World Heritage Site

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Sep. 14, 2011

Wakayama--The Cultural Affairs Agency has decided to conduct a full-scale
investigation into the damage caused by Typhoon No. 12 to a UNESCO World
Heritage Site that spreads across Wakayama, Nara and Mie prefectures.

Agency staff were to be sent on Wed to investigate the harm done to the
heritage site known as "Sacred Sites and Pilgrimage Routes in the Kii Mountain
Range." Huge landslides occurred within the site on ancient roads known as
Kumano Kodo, and there was also damage to the Kumano Sanzan shrines.

It may take several y to restore the areas to their original state.

According to the Wakayama Prefecture Board of Education, nearly 100 meters of
the Kumano Kodo collapsed about one km E of Mikoshi Pass in Tanabe, Wakayama Pre
fecture.

The heavy rain dumped by the typhoon earlier this m also washed away a section
of the ancient roads about 30 meters long and about 3 meters wide along a
river about 3 km W of the pass.

MYREF: 20110914123003 msg2011091412030

[236 more news items]

---
"America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776;
Temperature Line Records a 25-Year Rise."
The New York Times's headline.
Well, what's so new about that?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 18 Aug 2011 14:24 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Weak Tropical Storm Maria expected to combine with eastern Canadian weather
front to produce rain

Headline News from Canadian Underwriter
Sep 13, 2011 4:01 PM


Tropical storm Maria is weak as it approaches Atlantic Canada, but it is
expected to merge with a front over Eastern Canada late in the week, resulting
in a heavy rainfall for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Sept. 16.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre said the upper winds in the atmosphere have not
allowed Maria's winds to intensify as the storm tracks towards Canada.

But although wind speeds are not increasing, the storm resulted in "a lot of
rainfall" over Puerto Rico, the centre noted. As of Sept. 13, the US National
Hurricane Center forecast between 4 and 8 inches of rain over Puerto Rico,
with 15 to 20 inches of rain over elevated regions of the country.

Computer models are suggesting Maria will merge with a front over eastern
Canada later in the wk of Sept. 12-16.

"The current forecast challenge is determining how that merger will take
place," the Canadian Hurricane Centre notes. "At the least, we can expect the
front to acquire extra moisture from the tropical storm and associated
rainfall to affect Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland on (Sept. 16)."

MYREF: 20110914173003 msg2011091423443

[232 more news items]

---
[Even-number day of week:]
What feedbacks?
Oh ... you mean those mythical feedbacks in GIGO computer models.
Yeah right.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 May 2011 10:39 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Are Hurricanes & Global Warming Linked?

Dennis Shibut
WCW
September 15, 2011

Since hurricane Irene ravaged the entire US eastern seaboard at the end of
August, the media pundits in major newspapers and on TV have gone into
over-drive telling the public that there is absolutely no connection between
hurricanes and global warming. Once again political dogma and fossil fuel
disinformation campaigns contradict scientific fact.

If you haven't been fooled by them, then count yourself lucky that you were
born with better `horse sense' than most. Especially after a y that saw
mega-snowstorms, devastating tornadoes, relentless flooding in the southeast
and mega-drought in the southwest accompanied by rampaging firestorms.

Understanding how global warming causes more extreme climatic events is not
elementary particle physics, just simple elementary school science. And it's
the same for hurricanes as well. Here's a quick review.

How Hurricanes Form

Hurricanes emerge in tropical waters when several conditions act in
coordination (source: NOAA Hurricane Fact Sheet).

* A pre-existing weather disturbance
* Warm ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean
* Moisture in the atmosphere
* Favorable wind conditions

Hurricanes have always taken place, and they are not all directly caused by
global warming. However, global warming directly contributes to the
development of hurricanes in 2 of the 4 conditions listed above: warmer ocean
water and more moisture in the atmosphere.

Storms and hurricanes are increasing in frequency and strength. For the 2011
hurricane season, the US National Service's Climate Prediction Center predicts
14-18 named storms (vs. 11 average) and 3-6 major hurricanes (vs. 2 average).

"It'll be pretty hard now for anyone to claim that cyclone activity
(hurricanes) has not increased." -Dr. Judith Curry, climate researcher at
Georgia Institute of Technology

The above chart compares severe storms in 2010 with their historical averages,
showing a significant increase in each category. The 2011 season is expected
to reach the same number of severe storms. (source: Climate Central)

How Global Warming Makes Hurricanes More Destructive

Most importantly, once a hurricane develops then global warming acts to make
it more dangerous and destructive. The 3 most destructive aspects are strong
winds, storm surges, and torrential rain.

1. High wind speeds. To have sustained high wind speeds, hurricanes pick up
energy from warm water at the ocean's surface, called "latent heat". That's
why hurricanes develop in the tropics and not the N Atlantic. The warmer
the seawater, the more energy the hurricane has, some of which goes into its
destructive wind speed. Since the rapid rise of global warming 3 decades ago,
the oceans have heated up along with air temperatures. This heat energy allows
hurricanes to be more powerful and destructive.

"Because water vapor and higher ocean temperatures help fuel the storm, it is
likely to be more intense and bigger as well." -Dr. Kevin Trenberth, senior
scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The graph above shows the rapid warming of seawater, starting around 1990, the
y the scientific community warned world leaders of global warming and climate
change. (source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency)

2. Storm surges. When hurricanes move over the water, their heavy winds plow
up large wave fronts called storm surges that are tsunami-like walls of water
that then roll toward the shores. When they come ashore they can destroy
beaches, bulldoze houses and buildings on beachfronts, and flood cities and
towns near the shoreline. Here again, the more energy the hurricane can draw
up from warmer seawater due to global warming, the bigger the storm
surge. Storm surges combined with high tides can reach nearly 30 feet (9 m) in h
eight.

Global warming powers storm surges in yet another way. As the warmer air and
water melt the polar ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet, the level of the
oceans are rising. This higher water level gives storm surges a leg-up in
breeching shorelines and allows them to move further inland. For instance, in
just one century the sea level in New York rose nearly 14 inches (35.5 cm), a
phenomenal rapid rate in geological time frame.

The above graph shows the steady rise in sea level due to the melting of the
Greenland ice sheet and the polar icecaps from global warming. (source: NOAA)

3. Torrential rains. The massive swirling cloud that is the hallmark of a
hurricane as seen from space can reach far inland and devastate communities
and towns with flooding. The unusual rainfall comes down over a short time
overwhelming streams, rivers, and lakes and causing them to overflow onto
properties, roads, and towns. In areas where there are steep hillsides and
mountains (Vermont), these heavy downpours also cause flash floods and
mudslides in the valleys. The majority of deaths from hurricanes each y is
caused by inland flooding, far from the shorelines.

Global warming has caused seawater temperatures to rise along with air
temperatures, which together cause much more evaporation than normal, leaving
the air very humid. This extra warm moisture is literally sucked up by
hurricanes, stripped of its heat energy, and then thrown out in the upper
atmosphere to fall back as rain. So global warming causes storm systems like
hurricanes to deliver more rain (or for winter storms, more snow).

For Irene the global warming effect was exemplary. In July, ocean surface
temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast averaged 2.6F (1.45C) above average,
the second highest July seawater temperature there since record keeping began
over a century ago (the record was 3.8F above average, set in 2010.)

"These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane
than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from
record-warm ocean surfaces." -Dr. Jeff Masters, meteorologist and former
hurricane hunter.

How Global Warming Assisted Hurricane Irene

What surprised almost everyone was how far N hurricane Irene penetrated. Up
until recent times hurricanes from the S almost never crossed into the
northeast of the US The reason is simple: the seawater there was colder and
therefore hurricanes could not extract the necessary heat energy to sustain
themselves. Now, however, with rapid increase in global warming over the last
2 decades, those same sea waters are no longer cold.

"Waters of at least 26C (79 F) extended all the way to southern New Jersey,
which made it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the N
than a hurricane usually can." -Dr. Jeff Masters, meteorologist and former
hurricane hunter

What You Can Do

First don't be fooled by the media which is eager to suggest that these new
violent storms are just freaks of Mother Nature or, if you will, Acts of
God. This is exactly what Big Oil and Coal wants us to believe. The stark
reality is that our emerging violent climate is caused by global warming. And
global warming, in turn, is driven by the emissions from the tailpipes of our
cars and from the smokestacks of fossil-fuel power plants that provide our
electricity. We can push back on severe storms such as hurricanes by
minimizing our carbon footprints as much as possible, following the 12 Golden
Kyoto Actions.

(Special thanks to Katherine Massam in helping to prepare this report.)

About The Author

Dennis Shibut is the creator of the Kyoto Action Committee and SolarShare, He
holds an MS Physics, and is a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists,
former researcher for NASA and US Coast & Geodetic Survey.

MYREF: 20110915210002 msg201109152099

[233 more news items]

---
The "Holy Grail": Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past
warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the
future, depends upon something called "climate sensitivity". This is
the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of `radiative
forcing', of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount
of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth
emits to outer space.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Ryoke Hits Japan

Amanda Kaiser
WWD.com
September 21, 2011


Tokyo--Typhoon Roke made landfall in Japan on Wed, claiming 6 lives,
flooding riverbanks, halting train service and stranding hordes of commuters.

<http://www.wwd.com/business-news/government-trade/typhoon-ryoke-hits-japan-5200
820>

MYREF: 20110922010002 msg2011092215653

[245 more news items]

---
[Why Are Republicans Climate Skeptics?]
Maybe that's because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven't
had any warming, man-made or otherwise.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 28 Oct 2010 15:25 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Headed for Stricken Japanese Nuclear Plant

Martin Fackler
New York Times
September 21, 2011

Tokyo -- A powerful typhoon struck Japan's main island on Wed, stranding
1000s of commuters in Tokyo and threatening to pour heavy rain on the stricken
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in the nation's tsunami-ravaged northeast.

Evacuation advisories went out to more than 1 mn people across the main island
of Honshu as torrential downpours caused flash floods in low-lying areas. As
of Wed evening, 5 people had been found dead and 4 others were missing,
according to Japan's national broadcaster, N.H.K.

The storm, called Typhoon Roke, directly hit greater Tokyo, briefly shutting
down Japan's commercial and political center. Strong winds and rains brought
most subways and commuter trains to at least a temporary halt, stranding tens
of 1000s at stations. Bullet train and airline service was canceled.

Even so, most of Tokyo continued to have electric power even as the eye of the
storm passed through the city on Wed evening, a testament to Japan's generally
robust basic infrastructure. According to Tokyo Electric Power, about 20k
homes lost electricity in Tokyo, a city of almost 13 mn residents.

Roke was the second powerful typhoon to strike Japan in the last month.
Typhoon Talas, which made landfall in western Japan on Sept. 2, left 106
people dead or missing, the worst toll in decades.

Roke's path was expected to take it over the Fukushima plant, which was
crippled by the massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11. The storm's
approach raised concerns that heavy rains could increase the risk of a leak of
contaminated water from the crippled reactor buildings into the nearby Pacific
Ocean. But Takeo Iwamoto, a spokesman for Tokyo Electric, the plant's
operator, said the plant could weather the storm without further damage or
risk of a leak.

The storm also threatened to flood coastal areas damaged by the tsunami and
earthquake, which lowered the level of the ground by as much as 2 or 3 feet
in some areas, and to wash radioactivity from the evacuated area around the
plant into the sea.

MYREF: 20110922020002 msg2011092212685

[244 more news items]

---
[I am Luddite!]
You whackos just keep changing your "predictions" to suit reality!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 16 Feb 2011 15:57 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Roke Barrels Through Tokyo

The season's 15th typhoon, and the 2nd this seaon to hit the Japanese coast,
has brought gusty winds and heavy rains that brushed the edge of Tokyo.

Yoree Koh
WSJ Asia
September 21, 2011, 5:14 PM ET


Tokyo--A powerful typhoon roared up Japan's main island, severing power
lines, overturning trucks, halting train lines and creating a rush-hour
commuter crush as it twisted through the capital and then headed north.

Typhoon Roke 1st made landfall in the tourist town of Hamamatsu in Shizuoka
prefecture at about 2 p.m. local time Wed, knocking over trucks and ripping
roofs from homes, then crawled up Japan's Honshu island.

Typhoon Roke Approaches Japan

View Slideshow
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576584260851573914.html

The season's 15th typhoon brought gusty winds and heavy rains that rattled
windowpanes more than 160 kilometers, or 100 miles, away in Tokyo. The typhoon
touched the edge of the country's capital around 6 p.m. and then headed toward
the tsunami-devastated northeastern region, where it was losing strength, the
Associated Press reported.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said it took precautions at the troubled Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear-power plant to minimize spreading by radioactive materials in
the blustering wind. Workers tied and fastened loose cables and equipment
before they halted work Wed afternoon.

Early Wed evening, landslides and flooding triggered by the typhoon were
reported to have killed 5 people, while 4 remained missing. Authorities urged
more than a mn residents to evacuate their homes as the storm moved north.

Japan Real Time

* Tokyoites Seek Exit as Typhoon Nears
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2011/09/21/tokyoites-seek-exit-as-typhoon-arr
ives/

The storm cut power to more than 460k households in the area powered by Tokyo
Electric, and to more than a quarter of a mn households powered by Chubu
Electric Power Co.

Some 40 train lines operated by E Japan Railway Co., including bullet-train
routes, were stopped, trapping 1000s of commuters trying to make their way
home early. Long lines formed at one of Tokyo's busiest stations, Shibuya,
with travelers impatiently checking their mobile phones in hopes of finding an
alternate route home--congestion reminiscent of the confusion in the hours
following the massive March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Toyota Motor Corp. suspended operations at 11 of its factories Wed evening,
while Honda Motor Co. shifted factory hours so workers wouldn't have to travel
when the typhoon was expected to be at its peak.

Typhoon Roke came less than 3 wk after Typhoon Talas, which, after landfall
Sep 3, became the deadliest typhoon to rip through Japan in 3 decades. Talas
left more than 100 people dead or missing as record rainfall triggered
mudslides and flooding in the country's central region, the highest death toll
since Typhoon Tip in 1979, when 110 people were killed.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said Wed morning that Roke was smaller than
Talas, but its wind strength was much more formidable. The typhoon struck
Shizuoka prefecture with wind speeds as high as 125 km an hour, or 78
miles an hour, in some parts. The weather agency forecasts the typhoon will
travel through the main island quickly, reaching Hokkaido, the northernmost
island, by Thu morning.

JMA officials also warned local authorities to remain vigilant of flooding and
mudslides. The weather agency said the typhoon could bring 400 mm of rain to
the Kanto region, which includes Tokyo, over a 24-hour period. Some parts of
the country could get as much as 80 mm of rainfall an hour. Trains
and airports have partially halted service throughout the region.

Shortly before his departure for New York on Tue evening, Prime Minister
Yoshihiko Noda directed the government to "take all necessary precautions" to
cope with the strengthening typhoon, according to chief government spokesman
Osamu Fujimura during a daily briefing Wed morning. The chief cabinet
secretary advised the public to be on "maximum amount of vigilance" and to
"speedily move out of danger zones" following evacuation recommendations.

MYREF: 20110922090001 msg2011092214930

[241 more news items]

---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon floods homes in Taiwan, heads for China

PHOTO: Scooter riders push their motorbikes through floodwaters caused by
Typhoon Nanmadol in Linbian, Taiwan.

USA TODAY

Taipei, Taiwan (AP) - A typhoon that flooded homes, roads and farmland in
Taiwan with more than 20 inches of rain left the island Mon and headed to
southeastern China.

Typhoon Nanmadol stayed over Taiwan for only a few hours and was weaker than
when it pummeled the Philippines, where at least 16 people died and another 8
were missing.

One death in Taiwan was attributed to the storm -- a motorcyclist hit by
debris -- and disruption to everyday life was extensive.

Some 30k households in southern and eastern Taiwan lost power, 8k people
were evacuated and scores of roads and bridges were closed due to the heavy
rain. Offices and schools were closed in the southeast as well as in the
capital, Taipei, which escaped the brunt of the storm.

In a southwestern county, civil defense crews used small boats to rescue
people from communities inundated by flash flooding. Dozens of homes were
flooded. CTI cable news station footage showed the aftermath of landslides in
Pingtung township and several homes partially submerged by water.

Pingtung is just to the S of the mountainous regions where more than 500
people died 2 y ago in mudslides spawned by torrential rains associated with
Typhoon Morakot, the most devastating storm to hit the island in 1/2 a century.

A slow government response to that catastrophe prompted a fusillade of
criticism aimed at President Ma Ying-jeou, who is up for re-election this Jan.

After Morakot, Ma said he was reorienting the major mission of the island's
armed forces toward disaster relief and away from defending against a possible
Chinese invasion -- the 2 sides split amid civil war in 1949.

The change was evident over the weekend, as the military dispatched troops and
rescue equipment to vulnerable areas, unlike during Morakot.

The typhoon, slow-moving with an enormous cloud band, drenched the northern
Philippines for days before pummeling it with fierce winds. Landslides,
flooding and collapsed walls caused many of the casualties, officials there said
.

MYREF: 20110922210002 msg2011092212023

[237 more news items]

---
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Atlantic Hurricane Season Peaks

Mark Dunphy
Irish Weather Online
02:24 pm - Wed 21 September 2011


http://www.irishweatheronline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/589725main_4Storms_
670.jpg
GOES-13 satellite took a stunning image of 4 tropical systems in the Atlantic
on Sep 8, 2011. Hurricane Katia in the western Atlantic between Bermuda and
the US E coast; Tropical Storm Lee's remnants affecting the northeastern US;
Tropical Storm Maria in the central Atlantic; and newborn Tropical Storm Nate
in the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico. (Credit NASA/NOAA GOES Project)

During the 1st 2 wk of September, and the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane
season, NASA satellites were keeping tabs on a number of tropical systems.

NASA's Aqua, Terra, EO-1 and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
satellites provided rainfall rates, cloud height, cloud temperature, sea
surface temperatures, and extent of cloud cover throughout the life of all the
tropical cyclones.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/features/trmm-irene-study.html

NASA/NOAA's GOES Project also created images and animations from NOAA's
GOES-13 satellite that followed the track of each system through the Atlantic,
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Hurricane Irene lashed the E Coast of the US from S Carolina to the New
England states and caused record flooding in Vermont.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/history/severe-flooding-the-big-story-wit
h-hurricane-irene-2011/35301.html

Tropical Storm Jose lived and died in the Atlantic Ocean, only to give way to
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/storm/tropical-storm-jose-sate
llite-images-and-projected-path/35015.html

Hurricane Katia, which brought rough surf to the US E Coast and did a
sling-shot across the Atlantic to bring hurricane-force winds to parts of
Ireland and the UK during the second wk of September. Nate formed in the Bay
of Campeche and after a couple of days made landfall in southeastern Mexico.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/iwitness-weather/gallery-ex-hurricane-katia-de
livers-parting-blow-to-ireland-12-september-2011/37337.html

Tropical Storm Lee formed S of Louisiana and sat off-shore for days, soaking
the northern Gulf coast before making landfall and merging with a frontal
system. Lee was then absorbed into a low-pressure area over the Ohio Valley
and produced massive rainfall from Florida to Illinois. NASA's rain gauge in
space, TRMM, mapped the massive rainfall generated by Lee.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/storm/tropical-storm-lee-a-com
plete-washout/36977.html

Day-by-Day

After forming in the N central Gulf of Mexico, Lee came ashore over south
central Louisiana on the morning of Sep 4. That day, an infrared image of
Tropical Storm Lee from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument on NASA's
Aqua satellite measured cloud-top temperatures to tell forecasters where the
coldest, highest thunderstorm cloud tops were located. Those cloud-top
temperatures were colder than -62 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius). The strongest
rainfall at that time was occurring over coastal Alabama and Mississippi and
the Gulf of Mexico.

MODIS image of Tropical Storm Lee at 1300hrs EDT (1800hrs GMT), 2 September 2011
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/MODIS-image-of-Trop
ical-Storm-Lee-at-1300hrs-EDT-1800hrs-GMT.jpg

Over the next 2 and a 1/2 days, the slow-moving storm worked its way across
central Louisiana and central Mississippi and into northern Alabama, dumping
heavy rains along the way. Tropical Storm Lee joined a frontal system to soak
the eastern US.

Rainfall estimates from the TRMM-based, near-real time Multi-satellite
Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in
Greenbelt, Maryland, for the period Aug 31- Sep 8 for the eastern 1/2 of
the US showed heavy rains extending inland from the northern Gulf of Mexico
across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, northwestern Alabama, and into central
Tennessee. Rainfall totals in this region generally exceed 100 mm (~4 inches),
with some parts of Mississippi and Louisiana receiving upwards of 250 mm (~10
inches). Chattanooga, Tennessee broke its all-time, 24-hour rainfall total
with 9.69 inches.

TMPA rainfall totals of 125 mm (~5 inches) to as much as 200 to 250 mm (~8 to
10 inches) extended from S central Pennsylvania up into central New York,
where the Susquehanna River reached record flood levels in downtown
Binghamton. Elsewhere across the mid-Atlantic, rain totals exceeded anywhere
from 100 to 150 mm (~4 to 6 inches).

On Sep 8, NOAA's GOES-13 satellite captured an image of the cloud cover from
Tropical Storm Lee's remnants that extended from the northern Gulf of Mexico
to New England. There also was other activity that satellites were monitoring
in the Atlantic, because Katia, Maria and Nate were active and all 4 systems
were captured on one image.

By Sep 10, another NASA satellite, EO-1, captured a natural-color image of
the Susquehanna River, in central Pennsylvania, that was loaded with sediment
as a result of Lee's flooding rainfall.

NASA's EO-1 satellite captured this natural-color image on September 10 of the
Susquehanna River, loaded with sediment. The Susquehanna flows through the
city and appears confined within its embankments. Credit NASA Earth
Observatory/Jesse Allen, Robert Simmon/ NASA EO-1 team
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/589726main_Susqueha
na_670.jpg

On Sun, Sep 11, at 10 a.m. EDT, the GOES-13 satellite captured Nate's center
as it was just about to make landfall N of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican
state of Veracruz, bringing heavy rainfall and sustained winds were near 45
mph. Thirteen hours after making landfall, Tropical Storm Nate weakened into a
remnant low-pressure area.

By Sep 14, Hurricane Katia had made its mark known in the UK and Ireland,
bringing hurricane-force, heavy rains and rough surf. On the same date,
Tropical Storm Maria caused Tropical Storm Warnings for Bermuda, and was
expected to follow much the same path as Katia did earlier in the week.

MYREF: 20110923010001 msg2011092323750

[233 more news items]

---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Category 4 hurricane Hilary could threaten Baja California

BNO News
Sep 23 2011

Miami (BNO News) -- Major Hurricane Hilary continued to move away from
the Pacific coast of Mexico on Fri morning, but forecasts indicate the
Baja California peninsula could be at risk of being hit.

Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been
following the weather system since Sun afternoon when it emerged as a
broad low pressure system several 100 miles (kilometers) S of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. It was classified as a tropical storm on Wed and
strengthened into a hurricane on Thu morning.

As of 8 a.m. PDT (1500 GMT), the center of Hilary was located about
135 miles (215 kilometers) S of Lazaro Cardenas, a port city in the
southern part of the Mexican state of Michoacan. It is moving towards
the W at a speed near 9 miles (15 kilometers) per hour.

Hilary's maximum sustained winds are near 145 miles (230 kilometers)
per hour, with higher gusts, making it a category 4 hurricane on the
five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. Some strengthening is
possible during the next few days.

"Hilary is maintaining itself as an impressive major hurricane with
very cold and symmetric cloud tops surrounding a small warm eye," said
NHC hurricane specialist Stacy R. Stewart. "The size of the cyclone
continues to be quite small as indicated by a lack of
tropical-storm-force winds on the E side. Also, no
tropical-storm-force winds have been reported along the coast of
Mexico this morning."

The NHC said hurricane-force winds extend only 25 miles (35
kilometers) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 85 miles (140 kilometers). Except for heavy rains and
swells generated by the hurricane, no land was being affected directly on Fri.

Stewart said Hilary is expected to remain a major hurricane through
the weekend as it remains far enough from land. "Hilary should remain
over very warm waters, in moist air, and within low vertical wind
shear for the next 2 to 3 days," he said. "So it is quite likely that
Hilary will continue as a major hurricane during that time. Intensity
variations that occur may be dominated by internal dynamics, such as
eyewall replacement cycles, which we have very limited ability to anticipate."

While Hilary was moving away from land on Fri, forecasts show the
hurricane will likely turn toward the northwest on early Tue
morning. This would put the storm on a direct path to the Baja
California peninsula, but forecasts early next wk will determine which
- if any - areas are at risk.

Hilary is the eighth named storm of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane
season, following Tropical Depression Eight-E which formed in late
August and made landfall in southwestern Mexico, causing no casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific
this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with 5 to eight
becoming hurricanes and one to 3 expected to become a major hurricane
(category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named
storms, with 8 to 9 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major
hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15
through Nov 30, with peak activity from July through September.

MYREF: 20110926083001 msg201109261663

[237 more news items]

---
[Yasi is "the worst cyclone" to hit Qld:]
CORRECTION: The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
[Bzzt! Thank you, come again!]
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 3 Feb 2011 15:12 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Soggy E Coast braces for rain deluge

WPMT
2:11 pm EDT, September 23, 2011

Boston (Reuters) - Flood watches and warnings from N Carolina into New
England were triggered on Fri by widespread rainfall forecast on the
1st official day of fall and into the weekend.

Potentially heavy rain was expected to batter much of the region,
including Philadelphia, New York, Boston and Washington.

Downpours expected this weekend together with rainfall forecast early
next wk could soak parts of the region with up to 4 inches of rain,
more in some local spots, Weather Channel meteorologists said. Some
areas could see several inches of rain over a much shorter time,
according to AccuWeather.com.

In N Carolina, there were reports on Fri of creek flooding in the
Charlotte area, and some regions recorded 2 to 3 inches of rain in 60
to 90 minutes, said NWS Raleigh meteorologist Scott Sharp. "You're
pretty much getting a month's worth of rainfall in less than two
hours," Sharp said.

Flood and flash flood watches and flood warnings were in effect from
North Carolina northeastward into Massachusetts, according to the
National Weather Service.

Many communities along the E Coast have barely had time to dry out
from rains and flooding courtesy of Hurricane Irene and later,
Tropical Storm Lee.

Historic flooding caused by the storms triggered the evacuation of
hundreds of 1000s of people and prompted President Barack Obama to
declare emergencies in states from Vermont to Virginia.

Heavy rains were expected to hit N Carolina up into Maryland and
Delaware through Fri night, according to AccuWeather.com.

The rainstorms were then forecast to drench the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England from later Fri into Sat.

Rain was already falling steadily by mid-morning in eastern
Pennsylvania, where the suburban Philadelphia area could see from one
to 3 inches of rain through Sat, according to NWS.

This soaking comes on the heels of more than 19 inches of rain in
Philadelphia during August, a record for the wettest m in the city's history.

Rain was expected to be heaviest in New England and upstate New York
through much of the day Sat, AccuWeather.com said.

Residents in southern New England were likely to see up to 2 inches of
rain later on Fri into Sat with some higher totals in Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and western Rhode Island, according to NWS.

MYREF: 20110926140002 msg2011092622957

[233 more news items]

---
It takes more than warmth to grow crops; otherwise the Sahara would be green!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 21 Jan 2011 11:16 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

60 dead, 4 mn affected in India floods

[Officials say water released at some flood-control dams has topped
figures set in 1975].

AFP
Sep 26 2011

Bhubaneswar, India -- Sixty people have died and 4 mn have been affected by
flooding in eastern India that has led to a major relief effort from local and
international aid agencies, officials said Mon.

"It's tough to cope with 2 successive floods within a week," Disaster
Management Minister Surya Patra from the state of Orissa told AFP following
separate bouts of heavy rains that led rivers to break their banks.

"Flooding since the beginning of the m has left 60 people dead and over 4 mn
reeling under the impact," he said, adding that coastal regions of the
impoverished state had been particularly badly hit.

In the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, an estimated 28 people have been
killed in rain-related incidents and rivers there are also on the rise, local
reports said Mon.

In Orissa, Special Relief Commissioner Mr P.K. Mohaptra told AFP that an
estimated 150k people living in low-lying areas had been evacuated over the
weekend after water levels rose in the Brahmani and Baitarani river systems.

He said 5 helicopters were dropping food packets in the worst-hit locations
and 2 more would join the fleet.

"Besides, 260 relief centres are in operation providing food and other
utilities," Mohapatra said.

The International Federation of the Red cross said it had distributed 5k
tarpaulins, 2k kitchen sets and 15k buckets among the affected people.

The floods have been caused by heavy and late rains at the end of the monsoon se
ason.

MYREF: 20110927160002 msg2011092712349

[233 more news items]

---
[Weather is responsible for climate change:]
And that's the only reason for the heat!
Strong northeast winds being superheated desert air from the inland to the
the southern capitals.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 31 Jan 2011 13:42 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Powerful Typhoon Nesat hits Philippines

[For trends in hurricanes and cyclones (but not typhoons, yet) see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html> and
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.cyclone> ].

Flooding in Manila

Kate McGeown
BBC
27 September 2011

Related:
* In pictures: Philippines lashed by Typhoon Nesat
http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15075149
* Philippines typhoon: Your stories
http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15074308
* Animated guide: Hurricanes
http://bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7533909.stm

A powerful typhoon has struck the Philippines, triggering floods and cutting
power in the capital Manila and throughout the main island, Luzon.

Typhoon Nesat also forced the closure of the Philippine Stock Exchange and the
US embassy, and the ground floor of Manila's main hospital was flooded.

At least 7 people have been killed, including several children.

As Nesat approached, the authorities ordered the evacuation of more than
100k in central Albay province.

The typhoon is expected to continue slowly across the country, before blowing
across the S China Sea towards southern China on Thu.

There has been really heavy rain and wind here since last night. The typhoon
seems to have been moving from E to W of the island of Luzon and
affecting large parts of it. And when you think that Luzon is home to more
than 1/2 the Philippine population it means that a lot of people have been affec
ted.

There are a lot of very poor people in the country, and I was filming in some
of the poorer areas of Manila yesterday, in low-lying slums. There was a
little rain during the day and already the homes were being flooded.

Now we're a day on and it's been raining solidly since then. There must be
real fears for people living in those kinds of areas.

Nesat made landfall just before dawn on Tue in the eastern Isabela and
Aurora provinces on the Pacific coast.

The storm - with a diameter of 650km (400 miles) and wind gusts of up to
170km/h (105mph) - is now making its way across Luzon, the BBC's Kate McGeown
in the central Luzon province of Zambales reports.

Many roads have been flooded and flights cancelled, and local media are urging
people against non-essential travel, our correspondent says.

An adult and 3 children were crushed to death as a building collapsed in a
northern Manila suburb on Tue, AFP news agency quoted the Office of Civil
Defence as saying.

Two men were said to have died N of the capital in a landslide and
weather-induced accident.

There is waist-deep flooding in parts of the capital.

Reporters described huge waves crashing into Manila Bay's seawall, with water
overflowing into Roxas Boulevard and flooding streets and parks around the US
embassy, which was evacuated.

The ground floor of Manila hospital was flooded, and staff were forced to move
patients to the 1st floor.

"We've heard of Manila Hospital being flooded, but we're struggling to reach
the area even though we've co-ordinated with them already to help in an
evacuation plan," Philippine National Red Cross secretary general Gwen Pang
told AFP.

A five-star hotel was also evacuated, reports said.

Meanwhile, 1000s of residents living inland along the Marikana river were
evacuated as it threatened to overflow.

Government offices, schools and universities were closed.

In Isabela province, 4 coastal towns under threat from storm surges have
been evacuated.

Four fishermen are missing, and more than 50 more have been rescued after
their boats capsized in rough seas.

There are fears that the death toll may rise further.

Late on Mon, the 1st reported casualty of the typhoon was a baby who fell
into a swollen river in the eastern province of Catanduanes. Children
evacuated from shanty towns - 27 September Tens of 1000s of people are
being evacuated in Luzon

Earlier, about 110k people in several towns of the Albay province were
ordered to leave their homes and seek shelter elsewhere.

"We can't manage typhoons, but we can manage their effects," provincial
Governor Joey Salceda was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

The Philippines suffers frequent typhoons, about 20 a year, but Nesat is
thought to be the largest this year.

It comes almost exactly 2 y after Typhoon Ketsana killed more than 400 people.

MYREF: 20110927230005 msg20110927711

[234 more news items]

---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [daily nymshifter], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Nesat heads towards Viet Nam after lashing Philippines

[For trends in hurricanes and cyclones (but not typhoons, yet) see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html> and
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.cyclone> ].

Related:
* City gives priority to land-erosion work (Sep, 27)
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Miscellany/215888/City-gives-priority-to-land
-erosion-work.html
* 2 storms approach Viet Nam (Sep, 27)
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Miscellany/215876/Two-storms-approach-Viet-Na
m.html
* Storm Haitang to hit central region (Sep, 26)
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Miscellany/215853/Storm-Haitang-to-hit-centra
l-region.html

VNS
September, 27 2011 14:17:19

Ha Noi - After barrelling into the eastern Philippines, typhoon Nesat is
heading towards Viet Nam, which is already in the grip of Tropical Depression Ha
itang.

The typhoon, with wind speeds measured at 149kph, is now heading in a
north-westerly direction after making landfall on Luzon Island in the
Philippines this morning, according to international met offices.

Nesat, which is now churning up the E Sea, will be the 5th storm to hit
Viet Nam this year.

The typhoon is expected to reach China's Hainan Island on Thu, one or two
days before it reaches northern Viet Nam.

Meanwhile, tropical depression Haitang claimed the life of a 31-year-old
fisherman before making landfall in central Viet Nam at dawn today.

Torrential rains, which have led to water levels rising in the N and
Central region's major rivers, will die out tomorrow, according to the
National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting.

Wind and torrential rain has unleashed floods, toppled trees and damaged
houses in Quang Tri and Thua Thien-Hue provinces, according to the Central
Committee for Floods and Storms.

MYREF: 20110928015032 msg2011092810222

[237 more news items]

---
The claimed consensus views of hundreds of climate change "scientists" are
fundamentally erroneous.
[Bonzo has elsewhere claimed the germ theory of disease is an "erroneous
consensus view"].
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 19 Jan 2011 15:29 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Trying to reason with the hurricane season

[Hurricane season as already seen more than the average number of storms, and
it's only 1/2 over].

Jeff Haniewich
newsadvance.com
September 27, 2011

Believe it or not, hurricane season is now more than halfway done. We have
passed the peak of the storm season, Sept. 10. Tropical activity typically
falls off after that, except for one mini-peak in mid-Oct.

So far, we have seen 15 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense
hurricanes. Average for a season is 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2
intense hurricanes.

For the remainder of the season, we generally see 4 more tropical storms, 2
more hurricanes, and one more intense hurricane.

During September, meteorologists usually concentrate on waves coming from
Africa, with weather turning tropical over the southern Atlantic Ocean. In Oct
and Nov, the waves stop exiting Africa, and we begin to see more activity in
the Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean. The typical tracks keep these
either more over the open waters or farther to the south, say towards Mexico.

On a lighter note for this year, the pace of hurricanes needs to slow because
we are pretty far down on the list of names.

I hope this y we will not have to go into the Greek names as we did back in
2005, the y Katrina hit. There are only 6 names left on the list before we
head into the Greek alphabet.

Haniewich is chief meteorologist for WSLS Channel 10. His column is published
each Wed.

MYREF: 20110929190002 msg2011092922806

[233 more news items]

---
If AGW could predict future climate I would believe it is true.
Currently it does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
Which you can do without even measuring atmospheric CO2.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Storm Ophelia to Become Hurricane, May Skirt Bermuda

Alex Morales
Bloomberg
Thu September 29, 2011

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Ophelia may grow into a hurricane
tomorrow and skirt Bermuda the following day en route to Newfoundland, the
National Hurricane Center said.

Its 60 miles (95 kilometers) per hour winds are predicted to intensify to
hurricane-force, at least 74 mph, the NHC said in a 5 a.m. Miami time
advisory. Ophelia was about 180 miles northeast of the Virgin Islands, heading
northward at 7 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe, in the mid-Atlantic with winds of 45 mph, is forecast
to strengthen before weakening again to a depression by Oct. 3 without
threatening land, the center said.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary lost strength and is forecast to weaken
to a depression today and remain out at sea off western Mexico. The system
has 60 mph winds, down from 70 mph yesterday. High surf affecting Baja
California is expected to subside over the next day, the center said.

MYREF: 20110929230001 msg2011092926386

[235 more news items]

---
[Peter Webb:]

My proof seems pretty good to me.

But it's not a correct proof.
-- quasi <***@null.set>, Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:19 -0500

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

'Pedring' damage tops P3B as 'Quiel' threatens Luzon

Aaron B. Recuenco and Ellalyn B. De Vera
Manila Bulletin
Thu, September 29, 2011

Manila, Philippines -- The trail of destruction in Luzon from typhoon
"Pedring" breached P3 bn as new tropical storm "Quiel" threatened to hit the
Cagayan-Isabela area, disaster and state weather officials reported Thu.

"We have not lowered our alert level, the preparations we made for `Pedring'
will be continued in anticipation of this new weather disturbance," said
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Executive
Director Benito Ramos.

He said the NDRRMC has recorded the damage to infrastructure and the
agriculture sector.

"The initial cost of damage to properties amounted to P3.4 billion, including
P1.027 bn in agriculture and P120 mn in infrastructure," he said.

Ramos said a total of 17 bridges and 44 road sections are still not passable
in 6 regions, mostly in several Central Luzon (Region 3) and provinces in the
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR). So far, Ramos said the death toll has
reached 39 with the highest number of fatalities in Central Luzon with 15,
followed by the National Capital Region with eight.

The MIMAROPA (Mindoro provinces, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) have five,
Cagayan Valley region with three, while 2 fatalities were listed in Ilocos
Region, CALABARZON, Bicol and Cordillera Administrative Region.

Ramos said 31 are still missing while they have so far rescued 115 fishermen.

ince Pedring entered the country on September 24, nearly 500k individuals
had been affected 36k families or 168k displaced by floods and still staying
in evacuation centers.

Based on the NDRRMC report, some 6,311 houses were destroyed across the
country, mostly due to flooding, landslides and storm surges in coastal parts
of the country.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) said tropical storm Quiel (international name: Nalgae)
entered the country's vicinity early morning Thu.

Weather forecaster Gener Quitlong said it will likely make landfall over
Cagayan or Isabela by Sun or Mon.

The weather disturbance was still hovering over the Pacific Ocean Thu and may
still gather strength and intensify into a typhoon before it 2011hits the
landmass of Northern Luzon, Quitlong noted.

"Quiel" is forecast to move slowly westward at 10 km per hour (kph).

As of 5 a.m. Thu, Quiel was located 1,240 km E of Aparri, Cagayan, with
maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kp
h.

Quitlong said a high-pressure area (HPA) near China is pushing the storm
downwards and is slowing it down.

Due to the HPA's effect on Quiel, it is still possible that the cyclone will
change its track and may veer nearer to Metro Manila, he said.

Quiel is expected to be at 1,050 km E of Aparri, Cagayan, this morning and at
750 km E of Aparri, Sat morning.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Region 3 Assistant Regional Director Nigel
B. Lontoc reported 16 deaths in Central Luzon due to Pedring's fury.

Four were killed in Olongapo City in mudslide and dumpsite slide in Barangays
Mabayuhan and Cabalan while one died in Subic and one perished in Cabangan
both in Zambales province. In Bulacan, the death count reached 9 due to fallen
trees and flashflood drowning incidents.

In Pampanga, at least 3 died of drowning and pinning by a falling tree.

Navotas under state of calamity

Navotas City, one of the hardest-hit by typhoon "Pedring" in Metro Manila, is
now placed under a state of calamity after Mayor John Rey Tiangco assessed the
extent of damage.

Tiangco said worst-hit in the city was Barangay Daanghari with an estimated
364 families affected, followed by Barangay Tangos with 325 families; and
Barangay San Roque with 220 families.

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) estimated a total of 2,500 families affected
in Navotas.

As of noon Thu, about 30% of the city was without electricity and classes
remained suspended throughout the city due to flooding, he said.

Flooding in at least 8 of the 14 barangays of Navotas was a result of the
overflowing of water from various dikes.

Valenzuela: No classes in 15 barangays

In Valenzuela, classes in at least 15 barangays remained cancelled Thu due to
high level of floodwater which caused students and residents difficult to
pass, and travel, said Mayor Sherwin Gatchalian.

The 15 barangays whose classes were recommended for cancellation are: Pulo,
Balangkas, Pasolo, Coloong, Malanday, Tagalag, Isla, Wawang Pulo, Poblacion,
Arkong Bato, Rincon, Mabolo, Bisig, Palasan, Pariancilo Villa, and Veinte Reales
.

5-foot floods hit Bulacan

In Bulacan, the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office
(PDRRMO) said 12 barangays in San Miguel town were submerged in up to 5 feet
of floodwater as a result of spillage from the damaged Bulo Dam in Barangay Malu
sak.

Excess water from the overflowing Angat Dam Thu also inundated low-lying areas
- a total of 148 barangays in the province's 21 towns and 3 cities with flood
rising between a foot and 3 feet.

At least 72,085 families or 328,864 were affected, among them, 7,926 families
equivalent to 34,183 individuals were evacuated.

Particularly flooded were Norzagaray, Angat, Bustos, Baliuag, San Rafel,
Pulilan, Plaridel, Calumpit, Hagonoy and Malolos City.

Gov. Wilhelmino M. Sy Alvarado said a total of 610 families highly at risk in
the 12 barangays of San Miguel were forced to stay in evacuation
centers. Relief operations are ongoing, he said.

"We continuously coordinated and requested to the dam officials to gradually
release excess water from Angat dam, Bustos dam, Ipo dam even before the storm
made a landfall to ensure that it will lessen the effects on the towns where
the Angat river flows," said Alvarado.

As of 5 a.m. Thu, the water level at Angat dam reached 213.47 breaching the
dam's spilling level of 212 meters. The water elevation at Ipo dam was 99.73
meters as of 4:00 am breaching its spilling level 100.50 meters.

Initial estimate on the damage to agriculture reached P893, 489,373, covering
an area of 23,797 hectares in 14 municipalities of the province.

`Pedring' 5,120 families affected

In Zambales, the typhoon affected 5,120 families and destroyed agricultural
crops amounting to P49 mn after the lahar-filled Sto. Tomas River forced the
collapse of a portion of the megadike in San Narciso town.

"This is just a partial assessment. Our team is still checking out other
locations. I truly hope we don't find any more huge damages," said Governor
Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. as he visited some of the flood victims.

He said that 742 families (2,658 individuals) out of the 5,120 families
(25,168 individuals) affected by Pedring's fury remained temporarily housed in
evacuation centers.

Ebdane said repairs were under way in the 100-meter portion of the dike which
collapsed and allowed water and lahar to breach into agricultural fields,
destroying crops amounting to P48.9 million.

Citing a Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council report, the
governor said there was one more confirmed death from the typhoon - a drowning
victim in Barangay Lomboy in Cabangan named Jose Bruno, 45.

He said one Ernesto Labrador, 57, of Barangay Maloma in the same town remained
missing as of press time.

The most adversely affected areas by the typhoon were Sta. Cruz, Candelaria,
Masinloc, and Palauig.

NFA rice assistance

National Food Authority administrator Angelito T. Banayo called for closer
coordination with local government units and other government relief agencies
to speed up rice issuance and giving assistance to victims of typhoon Pedring.

Banayo also tasked the field offices to monitor closely the price of staple in
the market to prevent any unwarranted increase in the price of the staple even
as he informed the NFA has sufficient food security rice stocks to meet any
upsurge in demand for rice.

With a present high food security inventory, Banayo is confident it can meet
rice demand of LGUs and government relief agencies in areas heavily affected
by flood and where a lot of residents are housed in relocation centers.

The NFA has issued a total of 10,425 bags of rice to local government units
and relief agencies giving assistance to typhoon victims.

Meanwhile, Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Secretary Florencio
B. Abad assured that the government still has sufficient funds to cover
disaster-related incidents such as the onslaught of typhoon "Pedring."

Abad said the government still has P4 bn left from this year's P27-billion
calamity fund to cover incidents related to "Pedring" and other upcoming typhoon
s.

Apart from this, Abad the Department of National Defense, Department of Public
Works and Highways, and Department of Social Welfare and Development have
their own quick-response funds for relief and rehabilitation.

MYREF: 20110930010001 msg2011093030852

[233 more news items]

---
[Peter Webb:]

You are turning a very simple conjecture and proof into
something way more complicated than it is.

No -- you've oversimplified it,
-- quasi <***@null.set>, Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:19 -0500

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Nesat hits China

Kelvin Soh
Reuters/Toronto Sun
Thu, September 29, 2011 09:32 AM EDT

Related Stories
* Typhoon Nesat nears Philippines
* Philippines counts cost of Typhoon Nesat

Hong Kong - Typhoon Nesat hit Hainan island in S China on Thu after it swept
past Hong Kong, closing financial markets, schools and most businesses in one
of Asia's most biggest financial centres.

China recalled ships, suspended flights and ferry services in preparation for
the typhoon, the official Xinhua news agency said, after it passed through the
Philippines where it left at least 39 people dead and 31 missing .

"Nesat has made landfall over the northeastern part of Hainan Island this
afternoon, and continues to move further away from Hong Kong," the weather
service said in a statement.

China evacuated around 58k people in the resort island of Hainan and urged
schools to cancel classes ahead of the storm making landfall on its E coast,
Xinhua added.

The typhoon will bring heavy rain to Hainan as well as the export-dependent
province of Guangdong, and will impact upon a swathe of southern China over
the next 24 hours, the report said.

No deaths were reported in Hong Kong and damage was minimal, but local
television showed footage of at least 2 people who were hospitalised after
being hit by falling debris as a result of strong winds.

Several window panes from the headquarters of Hang Seng Bank in the business
district fell, but no one was injured.

Financial markets were closed all of Thu after the Hong Kong Observatory's
No.8 typhoon warning signal.

Hong Kong has a series of different typhoon warnings. Schools, businesses and
government services stop when any No.8 or above typhoon warning is issued.

The former British colony saw winds of over 120 kms (72 miles) per hour as
Nesat went past it, having made its way there from the Philippines, where
initial estimates of crop damage were revised up sharply.

The Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) Administrator Angelito Banayo
told Reuters that in the Central Luzon region alone, more than 103k tonnes of
rice were damaged -- valued at more than $50 million.

"The streets are empty and all the shops are closed," said Sharon Guan, a
tourist who was waiting for her ferry at the China Ferry Terminal. "It's so
unusual to see Hong Kong so deserted at this hour."

Tropical cyclones regularly hit Hong Kong, the Philippines and other coastal
regions of S China in summer and early in autumn.

EMPTY STREETS, ANGRY TOURISTS

A ship weighing 1,677 deadweight tonnes ran aground in the early hours of Thu
morning, but there were no injuries, the Hong Kong Marine Department said.

Nearly 20 shelters were also set up around Hong Kong, while the government
cancelled public events, including the daily flag raising ceremony at the
city's Victoria Harbour.

Usually crowded streets were devoid of people as its tram system stopped
operations and the subway and bus systems cut trips. Trees felled by strong
winds blocked some roads, while taxis asked for extra fare.

Hong Kong's dominant airline Cathay Pacific said all its flights to and from
the city were operating normally. Hong Kong International Airport's website
showed at least 40 departing flights were delayed or cancelled.

Ferry terminals that link Hong Kong to Macau, S China and outlying islands
were also closed.

Angry tourists gathered at the Hong Kong-Macau ferry terminal next to the
city's business district, with some waiting in despair while others crowded
around ticket counters demanding their money back.

"We all thought we would have a good time in Hong Kong, but it's been a
disaster," said one tourist who gave her name as Huang. "All they want is to
take our money, but when there is trouble, they disappear."

Neighbouring Macau was also affected, with schools and businesses at the
former Portuguese colony closed. But the city's glittering casinos, including
the Venetian Macau and the Wynn Macau, remained open for tourists who managed
to make their way there.

MYREF: 20110930070002 msg201109303370

[234 more news items]

---
[the diff between proving a positive and negative:]

Naive studies may be evidence of a kind, but really all they can do is
re-inforce studies already published. If one can fit a regression
line through some published data and it seems to show a statistically
significant connection, and it predicts much the same thing as in
published work, then we have evidence to accept the published work[...]
OTOH, if [you] get a different answer [you] are [most likely in error].

[...]
You do realise that what you have described is "an appeal to authority" -
the authority in the case being some unnamed journals - and not the
scientific method.
-- Peter Webb <***@optusnet.com.au>, 23 Nov 2010

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Ophelia expected to strengthen in the Atlantic

USA TODAY
Sep 29 2011

Track the hurricanes and tropical storms of 2011
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/story/2011-09-20/hurricane-tra
cker/50483664/1

Miami (AP) - Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to strengthen into a hurricane
as it moves away from the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica.Ophelia has
caused flooding and cut off communities on Dominica. About 1,600 people were
stranded on the island and nearly a dozen cars have washed away.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is forecast to head generally past Bermuda this
weekend.

The US National Hurricane Center in Miami said Ophelia is expected to become a
hurricane Fri. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving
northward away from the Leeward Islands. Its forecast to head generally
past Bermuda this weekend.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still far from land and moving west-northwest with
winds of about 45 mph.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary has weakened and is expected to become a
remnant low by Fri.

MYREF: 20110930080002 msg2011093022399

[233 more news items]

---
[Irony 101:]
[By my count BONZO has called people whacko 137 times; fool 26; idiot
22 times; twit 17 times; moron 14 times in just the past 4 wks. There
is a 10+-year history, however].
Warmist Abuse Shows They're Losing
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 16 Feb 2011 17:15 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Philippines on alert for second typhoon in one week

Reuters/Edmonton Journal
September 30, 2011 1:51 AM

PHOTO: Students look out from a school bus as they go home after the
suspension of classes due to rainfall from Typhoon Nesat in Quezon City, Metro
Manila September 26, 2011. The Philippines on Fri raised an alert in a dozen
northern provinces for the second major typhoon in a wk while workers were
still struggling to move 120k people to safety after the previous storm
unleashed flooding on the main Luzon island.


Manila -- The Philippines on Fri raised an alert in a dozen northern provinces
for the second major typhoon in a wk while workers were still struggling to
move 120k people to safety after the previous storm unleashed flooding on the
main Luzon island.

The weather bureau said Typhoon Nalgae, packing centre winds of 140 km/h and
gusts of up to 170 km/h, was expected to intensify before it made landfall in
the rice-producing Cagayan province on Sat afternoon.

"We're advising people in coastal and landslide-prone areas to prepare and
move to safer areas to avoid possible loss of lives," Nathaniel Servando,
chief weather forecaster, told a news conference.

Servando said Nalgae, locally known as Quiel, is gathering strength in the
Pacific and was moving westward at 22 km/h.

Nalgae will be the second typhoon to make landfall on Luzon in less than a
week, inducing the southwest monsoon to dump more rains and flooding wide
areas N of the capital.

Typhoon Nesat left 43 people dead and destroyed about 4 bn pesos ($91 million)
worth of crops and infrastructure early this week, the disaster agency said.

Nesat damaged more than 100k tonnes of rice in Central Luzon alone, and could
mean the country needs to import more rice, the head of the state grain agency s
aid.

Towns in Pampanga and Bulacan, provinces N of the capital, were flooded and
water levels continued to rise as officials had to released water from full
dams to make room for the rains Nalgae would bring.

Television images showed people wading in chest-deep floodwaters in Bulacan's
main roads, while others were marooned on the roofs of their houses, waving
for help.

"We don't know why water is rising because there are no more rains," Maribeth
Galang, a resident of Calumpit town in Bulacan province, said in a television in
terview.

"We're appealing for help. We're running out of potable water, food and
there's no electricity. Where are the rescue people?"

Local officials appealed to people to start moving to safer areas.

"We're asking you to leave now, don't wait for us because we have limited
manpower and resources," said Lilia Pineda, governor of Pampanga province.

MYREF: 20110930183001 msg201109309608

[235 more news items]

---
[Cause and effect:]

[explanations for climate change]

You left out "emerging from an ice age"!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 12:40 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Ophelia is strengthening: NHC

Related News
* Hurricane Ophelia intensifying near southeast Bermuda: NHC Thu, Sep 29 2011
* 3-Hilary becomes Cat 3 hurricane on the Pacific Thu, Sep 22 2011
* Storm Nate weakens, oil contractors found in Mexico Mon, Sep 12 2011
* Nate now a depression, oil contractors found in Mexico Sun, Sep 11 2011
* Katia's center passing between Bermuda and US E Coast Thu, Sep 8 2011


Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:10pm EDT

(Reuters) - Hurricane Ophelia is strengthening as it moves toward
north-northwest, after becoming the 4th hurricane in the busy Atlantic season,
the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT (0300 GMT), Hurricane Ophelia was located about 735 miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, packing maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per
hour (140 km per hour).

MYREF: 20110930190002 msg201109303342

[234 more news items]

---
co2 has no climate forcing effect and is not a greenhouse gas and, for that
matter, neither is water vapour.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [100s of nyms], 5 Sep 2009

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon moves to Vietnam after hitting China

AP/Boston.com
September 30, 2011

Hong Kong--A powerful typhoon that forced 100s of 1000s of people from their
homes on an island in southern China appeared to have caused little damage Fri
and was sweeping away from the country toward Vietnam.

Typhoon Nesat was expected to make landfall in Vietnam late Fri or early Sat,
after flooding streets on China's Hainan island on Thu. Hainan authorities had
plenty of time to prepare for the storm as it churned across the S China Sea
from the Philippines, where it killed at least 43 people and left 30 missing
earlier in the week.

Authorities evacuated 300k people, canceled flights, closed schools, suspended
ferry services and recalled fishing boats as the storm approached, and the
preparations appeared to have paid off with little damage reported on the island
.

That was also the case in Hong Kong, which wasn't directly hit by the storm
but saw wild weather Thu as the system passed offshore.

In the Philippines, more than 160k people were still in evacuation centers
Fri, 3 days after Nesat tore a path across the country's main island and
triggered some of the worst flooding in the capital in decades.

Even as the weather improved with some sunshine, more misery hit residents of
Bulacan province just N of Manila when 3 dams released excess water, flooding
farmland and sending residents in towns downstream wading through neck-deep wate
rs.

Bulacan Gov. Willy Alvarado said he called dam administrators to temporarily
stop the release of water, which he said unleashed flooding on "unprecedented" l
evels.

Army and police rescuers distributed food and other relief goods to those
stranded on rooftops in Calumpit and Hagonoy townships in Bulacan.

Preparations were also under way as a new typhoon headed toward the northern
Philippines. It was expected to hit over the weekend.

Overall, damage from Typhoon Nesat was estimated at $91 mn in the
Philippines. No estimates have been given yet for damage to Hainan.

MYREF: 20110930193002 msg2011093014732

[233 more news items]

---
[Sucked in:]

1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.

Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon 'Quiel' strengthens, threatens N Luzon

Jon Carlos Rodriguez
ABS-CBN [Philippines]
September 30, 2011

Storm signal no. 3 in 10 areas

Manila, Philippines (4th UPDATE) - Typhoon "Quiel" has intensified further as
it continues its westward movement towards Cagayan and Isabela, the state
weather bureau said.

In its latest bulletin, PAGASA said the typhoon has gained strength and is now
packing winds of 150 km per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to
170 kph.

Quiel is expected to make landfall in Cagayan early Sat morning, instead of
Sat afternoon as earlier predicted.

Public storm signal warning number 3 has been raised over Cagayan, Isabela,
northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao
and Abra.

Storm signal number 2, meanwhile, was hoisted over rest of Aurora, Nueva
Ecija, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Calayan Group
of Islands and Babuyan Group of Islands.

Storm signal number 1 was raised over northern Quezon, Polillo Island,
Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales and Batanes.

PAGASA said Quiel will not yet enhance the southwest monsoon until it crosses
northern Luzon.

Metro Manila will not be directly hit by the typhoon but rains brought by the
southwest monsoon are expected by Sat afternoon.

The weather disturbance is expected to exit through the Ilocos region and will
leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sun afternoon.

Alert up in northern Luzon

PAGASA officer-in-charge and Department of Science and Technology (DOST)
Undersecretary Graciano Yumul warned residents of northern Luzon that the
typhoon may hit the region as early as 4 a.m. on Sat.

PAGASA has also recommended total evacuation in areas still submerged in
floods caused by Typhoon "Pedring."

"People will die if they will not heed the local authorities," said Yumul.

Yumul said although the typhoon is only expected to hit the Cagayan area, the
whole of northern Luzon will be affected because of the typhoon's cloud band.

Storm surges, meanwhile, are also expected at the eastern part of northern
Luzon, said Yumul.

Yumul said the storm surge in Manila Bay during the onslaught of Typhoon
"Pedring" on Tue is unlikely to happen with the incoming typhoon.

"Hindi natin nakikita na magkakaroon ang kombinasyon ng paghangin na galing sa
bagyo at galing sa habagat," said Yumul.

However, he warned the public to anticipate floods and landslides because the
soil can no longer absorb more rainfall, following Pedring's devastation.

Dam status

Yumul noted that the dams in Magat in Isabela, Pantanbangan in Nueva Ecija,
San Roque, Binga and Ambuklao in Pangasinan will start to receive rain again
Fri night until Sat afternoon.

Angat and Ipo dams in Bulacan will receive rains brought by the southwest
monsoon by Sat evening.

Water released from the Angat and Ipo dams goes to Angat River and flows
toward the towns of Norzagaray, Angat, San Rafael, Bustos, Baliuag, Pulilan
and Plaridel.

"Whatever water Angat and Ipo dams will be receiving today up to tomorrow will
be coming from the waters that are run off from mountains that have received
rain from Typhoon `Pedring'," added Yumul.

He stressed that PAGASA only gives recommendations to dam operators regarding
releasing water from dams.

PAGASA said the release of water of these dams did not cause the massive
flooding in Bulacan.

PAGASA explained that water from Nueva Ecija, Sierra Madre and Pampanga river
caused the flooding in Calumpit, Bulacan, which Calumpit Mayor James de Jesus
described as the worst in 40 years.

De Jesus said a total of 26k families in 22 submerged barangays have been
affected by the floods.

MYREF: 20111001060002 msg2011100114562

[237 more news items]

---
"Global warming" refers to the global-average temperature increase
that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008

Earth's atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water
vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers
of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008

This is what the real climate scientist Dr Roy Spencer said.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 3 Mar 2011 16:29 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Ophelia strengthens to Category 3 storm

AP/USA TODAY
1 Oct 2011

Miami (AP) - Forecasters say Hurricane Ophelia is rapidly gaining strength and
is expected to pass E of Bermuda.

* This NOAA satellite image taken Fri shows Hurricane Ophelia is now about 730
miles S of Bermuda.
http://i.usatoday.net/weather/_photos/2011/09/30/Hurricane-Ophelia-gaining-more-
power-7IEBC0H-x-large.jpg


At 11 a.m. EDT, Ophelia had winds of 115 mph and is now the 3rd major
hurricane of the 2011 hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the center of Ophelia was about
620 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and was moving north-northwest at about
12 mph. It was expected to speed up and pass E of Bermuda on Sat.

A tropical storm watch is effect for Bermuda.

Ophelia reached hurricane strength Thu afternoon. It is the 4th hurricane
of the season.

Earlier, Ophelia caused flooding and cut off communities on Dominica.

Tropical Storm Philippe remains far from land, moving west-northwest with
winds of about 50 mph.

MYREF: 20111001100001 msg2011100124456

[233 more news items]

---
[Non-performance. BONZO posted a dozen quotes before "discovering"
Freeman Dyson accepted man-made climate change as real]

Dyson accepts AGW.

Huh?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], Mar 1 16:00 EST 2011

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoon Nesat wreaks havoc in coastal areas

VNS
Oct, 01 2011 08:50:00

Red Cross staff help local fishermen anchor their vessels in Thai Thuy
District in northern Thai Binh Province. -- VNA/VNS Photo Quang Tuan

Ha Noi -- Typhoon Nesat wreaked havoc in some northern coastal provinces
before weakening into a low pressure system yesterday.

No casualties were reported after the typhoon made landfall over the northern
region of Quang Ninh and Hai Phong yesterday afternoon, but strong winds and
heavy downpours resulted in significant property losses, the National Steering
Committee for Flood and Storm Prevention and Control said.

An initial report from the 1st storm-hit Quang Ninh Province showed that after
3 hours of battering, the roofs had been blown from nearly 300 houses, 11
vessels were lost and 1,700ha of subsidiary crops were submerged.

In the most affected areas, including Van Don and Co To island districts and
Cam Pha District, low-lying households endured waist-deep flood waters. About
90 households were promptly evacuated.

Estimates indicate losses of up to VND50 bn (US$2.4 million).

In Thai Binh, 3,268 low-lying households were evacuated while Tuyen Quang
Province spent VND9.8 bn ($470,000) to move 486 households in landslide-prone
areas to safety.

Students in the affected areas were given the day off school as a safety
precaution while students in Thanh Hoa Province were given 2 days off to
help their families harvest rice.

Yesterday, Deputy PM Hoang Trung Hai made site visits to check on sea dyke
systems in Do Son and Kien Thuy districts in Hai Phong City.

He asked the localities to do their best to assure the safety of people and prop
erty.

At least 10 domestic flights were cancelled by Vietnam Airlines due to bad
weather. 4 trains between Ha Noi and Hai Phong City were also
cancelled. Flights are scheduled to resume today.

Rainfall is expected to continue in Ha Noi during the weekend.

In the south, serious floods have claimed the lives of 8 people in the Mekong
Delta and forced 1000s to leave their homes.

Four of the victims were in An Giang Province, one was in Dong Thap Province
and 2 children and one adult perished in Can Tho City.

The hardest hit province was An Giang, where nearly 3,500 households were
flooded and about 100 other households needed to be evacuated quickly.

About 3,500ha of rice were destroyed, dozens of tonnes of fish were swept away
and 100km of roadways were submerged.

In Can Tho City, more than 320 households and dozens of km of roadways were
inundated. Dong Thap Province suffered the same situation.

Le Thanh Hai, deputy director of the National Hydro Meteorological Forecasting
Centre, said Nalgae, the 3rd storm in days, with a wind speed of 149kph, would
approach the E Sea today.

SEE ALSO
* Tanker collision causes petrol spill (Oct, 01)
* Whirlwind injures 20 in Quang Tri Province (Oct, 01)
* Hong Kong battens down as typhoon winds hit (Sep, 29)
* Gibbons seized in Binh Duong (Sep, 30)
* One killed, 23 injured in head-on collision (Sep, 30)
* Dykes to protect rice (Sep, 29)

MYREF: 20111001180001 msg2011100125522

[235 more news items]

---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Typhoons leave 55 dead, Filipinos trapped on roofs

[17th severe storm to hit the Philippines this season].

PHOTO: Residents evacuate to safer grounds as massive flooding continues for
the second day Sat Oct 1, 2011 at Calumpit township, Bulacan province N of
Manila, Philippines. Typhoon Nalgae, the second typhoon in a wk to hit the
rain-soaked northern Philippines, added misery to 1000s of people, some of
whom are still perched on rooftops while several other Asian nations also
reeled from flooding.

Jim Gomez
AP/Boston.com
Oct 2, 2011

Manila, Philippines--Back-to-back typhoons left at least 55 people dead and
rescuers scrambling on Sun to deliver food and water to 100s of villagers
stuck on rooftops for 4 days because of flooding in the northern Philippines.

Typhoon Nalgae slammed ashore in northeastern Isabela province Sat then
barreled across the main Luzon Island's mountainous N and agricultural plains
that were still sodden from fierce rain and wind unleashed by a howler just
days earlier. Nalgae left at least 3 people dead Sat while Typhoon Nesat
killed 52 others in the same region before blowing out Fri.

Nalgae was whirling 124 miles (200 kilometers) over the S China Sea from the
country's northeast toward southern China early Sun with sustained winds of 81
miles (130 kilometers) per hour and gusts of 99 mph (160 kph), according to
the government weather agency.

Its ferocious wind set off a rockslide in northern Bontoc province Sat,
causing boulders to roll down a mountainside and smash on a passing van, where
a passenger was pinned to death and another was injured, police said.

In northern Tarlac province's Camiling town, an uncle sought safety with his 2
young nephews as flooding rose in their village Sat. But one of the children
was swept away by rampaging waters and drowned while his uncle and brother
remained missing. A drunk man drowned in flooding in a nearby village,
provincial disaster officer Marvin Guiang said.

Nalgae roared through a similar path across areas on Luzon saturated by
Typhoon Nesat, which trapped 1000s on rooftops and sent huge waves that
breached a seawall in Manila Bay. Nesat also pummeled southern China and was
downgraded to a tropical storm just before churning into northern Vietnam on
Fri afternoon, where flood warnings were issued and 20k people evacuated.

In the rice-growing province of Bulacan N of Manila, 100s of residents in
flooded Calumpit town remained trapped on rooftops in 4 villages for the
4th day, many of them desperately waving for help. Rescuers aboard rubber
boats could not reach them because of narrow alleyways. 2 air force
helicopters would be deployed Sun to drop water and food packs to the marooned
villagers, officials said.

Calumpit Mayor James de Jesus pleaded for more help from the national government
.

"The ones waving for help are the ones who need to be rescued 1st because
they have elderly people and children with them," de Jesus told ABS-CBN TV
network. "We have a very big problem here ... we're facing a long flooding."

Benito Ramos, a retired army general who heads the Office Civil Defense, said
floodwater was receding in many areas but freshly-dumped rains by Nalgae may
flow down from the mountainous N to the central Luzon provinces of Bulacan and
Pampanga, which act like a catch basin. Some officials said water released
from nearby dams have exacerbated the flood.

Ramos said he and many rescuers have not slept for days but were elated to see
help from many private groups and provinces unaffected by the typhoons.

"Their resiliency is being tested but many people are still smiling and
waving," Ramos told The Associated Press by telephone from Calumpit, where he
was overseeing rescue work. "It's grace under pressure."

In the last 4 months, prolonged monsoon flooding, typhoons and storms across
Southeast Asia, China, Japan and S Asia has left more than 600 people dead or mi
ssing.

In India alone, the damage is estimated to be worth $1 billion, with the
worst-hit state of Orissa accounting for $726 million.

Several studies suggest an intensification of the Asian summer monsoon
rainfall with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the state-run Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology said. Still, it is not clear that this is
entirely because of climate change, it said.

The damage from the earlier typhoon in the Philippines was estimated at $91 mill
ion.

Nalgae was the 17th weather disturbance this y to batter the disaster-prone
Philippines, which is lashed by about 20 storms and typhoons annually. A low
pressure area has been monitored 435 miles (700 kilometers) off the
archipelago and could either dissipate or strengthen into another storm in the
next few days, forecaster Gener Quitlong said.

MYREF: 20111002170002 msg2011100213630

[238 more news items]

---
[Assault on Vostok icecores:]
YOU are the one presenting the "evidence." Your evidence MUST be
performed using proven standards, not untested guesswork.
-- Michael Dobony <***@stopassaultnow.net>, 24 Feb 2011 19:49 -0600

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Ophelia Intensifies, Passes E of Bermuda

AP/WSJ
Oct 1, 2011, 9:57 P.M. ET

Miami -- Hurricane Ophelia has intensified to a Category 4 storm as it passes
E of Bermuda and heads N toward Newfoundland, where the entire Avalon
Peninsula is under a tropical storm watch.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sat evening that Ophelia had
maximum sustained winds near 135 mph, up from 120 mph late Sat afternoon.

It was moving N at 26 mph and was 140 miles E of Bermuda. It was expected to
weaken rapidly late Sun, though tropical-storm-force winds are possible on the
Avalon Peninsula early Mon.

Ophelia is the season's 4th hurricane. Earlier, Ophelia caused flooding and
cut off communities on Dominica.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Philippe was stronger but it remained far from land
in the Atlantic.

MYREF: 20111002180002 msg2011100230607

[237 more news items]

---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Ophelia due to hit NI this week

Portstewart Portstewart has felt the effects of the storm

Cecilia Daly
BBC
Oct 3 2011

The after-effects of Hurricane Irene are still being felt in some states in
America, and last m the tail end of Katia caused damage here in Northern Ireland
.

It brought peak winds of nearly 80mph to Malin Head in Inishowen and
Castlederg in County Tyrone.

This week, Ophelia is whipping up a storm, and is due to hit Northern Ireland
by the middle of the week.

It may have been downgraded but forecasters are predicting powerful wind and
rain in the NE of America before it reaches here.

Although Northern Ireland managed to escape relatively lightly with Katia,
Ophelia's category of wind can bring widespread damage to trees, dislodge
slates from buildings and cause minor structural damage.

Ireland's deadliest storm Debbie, which occured almost 50 y ago, brought
hurricane strength winds of 120mph.

She was no longer a hurricane in the true sense because by definition they are
tropical features and their main source of energy is warm oceans.

When they do make it all the way over to this side of the Atlantic they will
have encountered colder waters and lost their tropical characteristics.

Ophelia could cause disruption similar to that seen in previous years.

At the end of the summer in 1986, Charley brought widespread gales and
flooding across large areas of Ireland and a few y ago ex-hurricane Gordon
disrupted the Ryder Cup at the K Club in Kildare.

MYREF: 20111004190002 msg2011100430041

[239 more news items]

---
[Asked an answered:]
So How Do Met Office Carbon Based Forecasts Compare To Solar Based Forecasts?
-- BONZO [various nyms], 25 May 2011 16:00 +1000

Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane forms off western Mexico, with another likely coming

CNN
Oct 8, 2011

Story Highlights
* Southwest of Baja California, Hurricane Irwin continues to gain strength
* So, too, does Jova, another storm in this area that's expected to become a hur
ricane
* In the Atlantic, Philippe weakens and is no longer a hurricane

Miami (CNN) -- A tropical storm strengthened into a hurricane Fri southwest of
Mexico's Baja California, not far from another that could rise to hurricane
status soon, the National Hurricane Center reported.

The eye of Hurricane Irwin sat about 945 miles (1,525 kilometers) southwest of
the peninsula's southern tip, and was heading toward the west-northwest at a
rate of 6 mph, according to an 2 p.m. PDT (5 p.m. EDT) advisory.

Steady winds were recorded at 90 mph -- 5 mph stronger than those measured
hours earlier -- and the Miami-based center estimated that Irwin will
strengthen even more "during the next day or so." Hurricane-force winds at 74
mph or stronger extended up to 15 miles from Irwin's center.

Another threat, Tropical Storm Jova, is further E in the Pacific Ocean,
putting it closer to land. This system is "expected to become a hurricane" by
Sat, and then get even more powerful after that, the prediction center
said. Jova's sustained winds strengthened over the course of the day Fri and
were 65 mph by the afternoon, as it headed toward the north-northwest at 8 mph.

Jova and Irwin are expected to execute a little dance over the next few
days. The hurricane center predicts Jova, after heading N Sat, will turn later
in the day toward the northeast.

Irwin, meanwhile, will turn toward the N by Sat and then, after barely moving
as it waited for Jova to clear out of the way, pick up speed and head E on
Sun, also aiming at the central Mexican coast.

As of Fri afternoon there were no coastal warnings or watches in effect, and
as always, the storms could end up taking a different path than current
conditions indicate.

These developments came as another storm, Philippe, lost its hurricane status
on Fri as it trekked across the open Atlantic.

By 5 p.m. EDT, it had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, down 15 mph from just
hours earlier.

The center of then now-tropical storm was located 645 miles E of Bermuda and
was moving at 13 mph toward the east-northeast.

MYREF: 20111009000002 msg201110093179

[240 more news items]

---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [daily nymshifter], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Irwin Becomes Eighth Hurricane in E Pacific, NHC Says

Sherry Su
Bloomberg
Oct 07, 2011, 6:42 AM EDT

* Philippe Becomes Atlantic Hurricane; New Storm Grows in Pacific
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-06/philippe-becomes-atlantic-hurricane-
new-storm-grows-in-pacific.html
* US Northeast, Southwest Warm Next Week, Forecasters Say
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-06/u-s-northeast-southwest-warm-next-we
ek-forecasters-say.html
* Philippe Close to Hurricane Strength in Atlantic, NHC Says
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-06/philippe-close-to-hurricane-strength
-in-atlantic-nhc-says.html
* Philippe May Become Atlantic Hurricane Soon, Center Says
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-05/philippe-may-become-atlantic-hurrica
ne-soon-center-says.html
* Storm Philippe May Become Hurricane, Avoiding N America
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-04/storm-philippe-may-become-hurricane-
avoiding-north-america.html


Weather system Irwin has become the eighth hurricane of the eastern Pacific
season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Irwin, a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is located 910
miles (1,460 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California,
and is moving west-northwest at almost 10 miles per hour with 80 mph winds,
the center said in an advisory at 2 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time. "A turn toward
the northwest and north-northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed
is expected today and tonight," the NHC said.

"Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days," the
center said.

Tropical Storm Jova, 520 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, could grow
into a hurricane by tomorrow, the center said in a separate advisory. The
system is moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph
.

In the Atlantic, Philippe, a category one hurricane, continued on a northerly
course into the Atlantic between Europe and N America, according to the
center. It is moving east- northeast about 17 mph with top winds at 90 mph,
from 85 mph earlier. The system is located 535 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. "Some gradual weakening should begin today and Phillipe is forecast
to become post-tropical in a day or two," the center said.

MYREF: 20111009003003 msg201110097221

[239 more news items]

---
Am I therefore unqualified to form an opinion? Being able to read is a
prerequisite to an engineering degree, and I have exercised this ability
over the years with regard to GW.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], Fri, 9 Sep 2011 11:15 +1000

Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- ***@27-32-240-172, 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Jova strengthens to category 2

Elinor Comlay
Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:16am BST


Mexico City (Reuters) - Hurricane Jova strengthened to become a Category 2
storm off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Sun and Mexican authorities issued a
hurricane warning for coastal areas popular with tourists.

The storm, with top winds reaching 100 miles per hour, was about 260 miles
southwest of the port city of Manzanillo at 8 p.m. PDT (0300 GMT on Mon), the
Miami-based National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters expect Jova to strengthen further during the next 48 hours and it
could become a major hurricane by Tue, the center said.

Mexico issued a hurricane warning for 200 miles of coastline stretching south
from Cabo Corrientes below Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco state.

Hurricane-force winds were possible within the warning area by Tue
afternoon. The storm is moving E at about 7 mph and is expected to turn toward
the northeast on Mon night, the NHC said.

"Jova could become a major hurricane by Mon night or Tue," the hurricane
center said. "The center of the hurricane will be nearing the coast of Mexico
by Tue afternoon."

Mexico has no oil installations in the Pacific but Jova is headed to a part of
the coast popular with tourists.

All Mexico's major ports were open.

MYREF: 20111010170002 msg201110106320

[240 more news items]

---
Currently [AGW] does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

While they all say the earth is warming, I am not aware of a single
definition of this term, nor a scientific test which shows whether the earth
is in fact warming, cooling or staying the same.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 19 May 2011 14:37 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Team seeks more advance warning on hurricanes

Forecasters hope new research will give the public more advance warning of the
birth of a monster hurricane.

Frank Becerra Jr.
USA TODAY
Oct 9 2011

Most tropical storms and hurricanes can be forecast only about 2 days before
their formation. A research collaboration hopes to extend that forecast by 10
days or more.

The effort is timely as weather experts look for ways to combat deadly
storms. This year's storm season killed dozens of Americans and led to
billions of dollars in damages.

Leaders of the collaboration between EarthRisk Technologies, a San Diego-based
software and weather prediction company, and Colorado State University's
Tropical Meteorology Project say their efforts could help better predict when
an Atlantic hurricane forms. Their methods analyze past weather information
and use EarthRisk's algorithms for forecasting the probability of extreme weathe
r.

"EarthRisk's ability to take decades of atmospheric data and crunch it into
usable models that can then be applied to future cyclone events will be
invaluable to our research," says Colorado State's William Gray, the dean of
hurricane forecasting.

The bulk of hurricane forecasting is done using computer models, says
EarthRisk's chief science officer, Steve Bennett. Those models analyze
current weather data and project what will happen in the coming days.

"The models do a decent job, but there's a lot of uncertainty with them," says
Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. He says using historical data
will complement the information that comes out of the models.

The hurricane forecasts would be an offshoot of weather prediction tools
EarthRisk developed this year. Known as TempRisk and HeatRisk, the software
programs give advance warning of coming cold snaps, heat waves and extreme
weather up to 40 days ahead of time.

Although Colorado State is best known as the pioneer of seasonal hurricane
forecasts issued well before the season begins, the new techniques would be
for in-season predictions of when and where storms might form.

It would be "updated in real time," Klotzbach says.

He says the research has just begun, but if it pans out, he hopes it could be
put to use by next summer's hurricane season.

MYREF: 20111010173001 msg2011101017709

[239 more news items]

---
[Peter Webb:]

You are turning a very simple conjecture and proof into
something way more complicated than it is.

No -- you've oversimplified it,
-- quasi <***@null.set>, Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:19 -0500

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Severe weather damages Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas

Larry Bleiberg
USA Today
Oct 10 2011

Related:
Hurricane Jova alters cruise itineraries


Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas sustained minor damage Sun night when
the ship was departing Port Canaveral, Fla., the cruise line says.

There were also some injuries, although the line says they were not serious.

The incident happened at 7:30 p.m. when the vessel, one of the largest cruise
ships in the world, "experienced extreme wind and sea conditions, well beyond
what was forecasted," the line said in a statement.

The wind speed was more than 3 times what was forecast, it said. "At this
time there have not been any serious injuries reported. The ship has sustained
some damage to the public areas and guest staterooms, which in no way affect
the sea-worthiness of the ship."

The ship will continue on its regularly scheduled seven-night itinerary, which
includes port calls to CocoCay, Bahamas; Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas; and
Phillipburg, St. Maarten. The ship was to arrive in Coco Cay this morning, as sc
heduled.

The Carnival Sensation, which was also scheduled to leave Port Canaveral Sun
night, chose to overnight at the dock instead of risk the weather, the cruise
line said. The ship departed this morning at 8 a.m. without incident.

In addition, Disney Dream delayed its Sun evening departure until 4:30
a.m. Mon when the weather had calmed. The line said the ship will visit all
its planned ports, but in a different order before returning as scheduled.

MYREF: 20111011190001 msg2011101132389

[240 more news items]

---

Remember who you're talking to. :)
The guy quotes Dyson without knowing Dyson accepts AGW;

Dyson accepts AGW???
News to me!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], Mar 2 16:10 EST 2011

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Jova hits key Mexican port -- 2 dead

Miguel Angel Gutierrez and Mica Rosenberg
Reuters
Tue, Sep 27 2011

* Jova not expected to cause losses for investors 11:51am EDT
* Hurricane Jova sweeps across Mexico's Pacific coast 6:39am EDT
* Thailand scrambles to prevent humanitarian disaster from floods Mon, Oct 10 20
11
* Jova strengthens to a category 2 hurricane Mon, Oct 10 2011
* Deadly Thai floods close factories, threaten Bangkok Sun, Oct 9 2011


Manzanillo/Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Reuters) - Hurricane Jova flooded the
streets of Mexico's main Pacific port with torrential rain on Wed, inundating
popular beach resorts and killing at least 2 people in a mudslide.

While Jova ravaged the coast, a tropical depression farther to the southeast
prompted 1000s of evacuations in Mexico as well as flooding and mudslides that
have killed 18 in Central America since the start of this week.

Streets in the port of Manzanillo were underwater, coastal communities flooded
and roads blocked due to fallen trees and washouts after Jova, now a tropical
depression, hit the coast as a Category 2 hurricane late on Tue.

Manzanillo, Mexico's busiest port for cargo, remained closed to traffic
despite the storm easing. Some streets in the city were under 3 feet (1 meter)
of water.

"The streets of Manzanillo are impassable, as are the highways connecting
Manzanillo with the S of Jalisco," national Red Cross coordinator Isaac
Oxenhaut said.

Highways leading northwest from Manzanillo along the coast were closed and the
beach towns of Zihuatlan, Melaque and Barra de Navidad were swamped with
floodwaters, the Red Cross said.

In the village of Jose Maria Morelos northwest of the port, a woman and her
son died when a deluge of mud hit their home.

"I think they asphyxiated," Alfredo Juan de Dios, 65, said of his
sister-in-law Marisol and her young son Juan Pablo after the mud brought down
a wall of their house, trapping them. "I have never seen rain like this. It's
caused mayhem," he added.

Outside his shattered home, Marisol's husband wept as rescue workers covered
his son's body with a white sheet.

The force of the winds flipped metal roofs off homes and cut power supplies to
some 107k people in the area.

In Melaque, local musician Roberto Orozco said he was forced to abandon his
home for higher ground. "I got back to find my stove and my fridge swimming,"
said Orozco, 52. "We're really sad, we lost everything."

With winds that reached 35 mph, Jova was about 20 miles east-south E of
Tepic at 2 p.m. PDT (2100 GMT), the US National Hurricane Center said.

The Miami-based NHC said the center of Jova hit the coast near the town of
Chamela in the state of Jalisco, on a stretch dotted with beaches S of
tourist resort Puerto Vallarta. Mexico has no major oil installations in the Pac
ific.

PUERTO VALLARTA SPARED

Puerto Vallarta, which suffered bad flooding when hurricane Kenna hit in 2002,
was spared from the storm overnight.

On Tue workers scrambled to fill and stack sandbags to protect the
professional beach volleyball courts on Puerto Vallarta's coast, where events
from the Pan American Games are scheduled to be staged this week.

The NHC downgraded Jova to a tropical depression and Mexico lifted bad weather
warnings S of Manzanillo. The storm will likely dissipate entirely by Fri, but
could still cause life-threatening mudslides and floods, the NHC said.

Jova could produce up to 12 inches of rainfall over 4 western Mexican states,
with isolated rainfall of up to 20 inches, the hurricane center said.

Manzanillo, Mexico's main point of arrival for cargo containers, has been
closed since late on Sun and about 13 container ships are stuck in the port.

The port handles about 750 containers of cargo a m and ships goods including
cars, car parts, cattle, minerals and tequila to Asian and N American markets.

Farther south, tropical depression Twelve E struck southwest Mexico and
Central America, causing flooding and mudslides that have killed 13 people in
Guatemala, 4 in Nicaragua and one in El Salvador since Mon.

Rising river levels in the southern Mexican state Tabasco also prompted the
evacuation of 75k people.

The depression weakened on Wed, prompting the Mexican government to end a
tropical storm warning from Barra de Tonala southeastward to the
Mexico-Guatemala border, the NHC said.

With winds of 35 miles per hour, the depression will probably dissipate later
on Wed, the center said. It could produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches in the
Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas and parts of Guatemala -- and as much as
15 inches in some areas, the NHC said.

MYREF: 20111013141501 msg201110132849

[239 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Storm death toll rises to 8 in Philippines

Oct 13, 2011

Manila (AFP) - The death toll from tropical storm Banyan rose to 8 on Thu
and 2 people were missing, in the latest disaster to hit the typhoon-ravaged
Philippines, the government said.

Most victims drowned while one man was blown off a bridge, another was fatally
electrocuted and a small-scale miner was entombed by a landslide when the
storm swept through the country this week, the civil defence office said.

Almost 9k people fled to government evacuation centres ahead of the storm
which slammed into the central islands on Wed, it added.

Sea travel and domestic flights were cancelled amid the storm, the

MYREF: 20111014120002 msg201110142543

[243 more news items]

---
[Why Are Republicans Climate Skeptics?]
Maybe that's because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven't
had any warming, man-made or otherwise.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 28 Oct 2010 15:25 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Jova death toll raised to 6

CBSNews/AP
Oct 13 2011

Manzanillo, Mexico -- Mexican authorities on Thu raised to 6 the death toll
from Hurricane Jova, which hit along the Pacific coast as a Category 2 storm,
and warned the storm's remnants could affect opening ceremonies of the Pan
American Games.

The body of a man who apparently had been swept away by a river current was
found covered with mud in the town of Cihuatlan in Jalisco state, said civil
protection spokesman Juan Pablo Vigueras. The games are scheduled to open in
Jalisco on Fri.

The 5 other victims drowned, were killed by mudslides or died in a collapsed hou
se.

Rain from the remnants of Jova may change the open-air inauguration of the Pan
American Games in the western city of Guadalajara, said Bernardo de la Garza,
Mexico's top sports official.

Heavy rain falling on Mexico's W coast also may affect training sessions for
the games' triathlon, sailing and beach volleyball, he said. All 3
competitions are to be held in the beach resort of Puerto Vallarta just N of
where Jova hit land early Wed.

Farther south, a low-pressure system continued to dump rain on southern Mexico
and Central America, where it was blamed for the deaths of 15 people in
Guatemala. Rains will likely continue during the next couple days as the
system hovers over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador, said the
National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Guatemalan Vice President Rafael Espada said 4 people are missing.

He urged Guatemalans on Thu to use the country's highways only for
emergencies, saying several were damaged by the storm or are blocked by mudslide
s.

The storm damaged at least 2k homes, said Alejandro Maldonado, director of
Guatemala's disaster prevention agency.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Irwin was expected to weaken as it swirled over
the Pacific off Mexico's coast and was forecast to become a remnant low within
24 hours, the hurricane center said.

Irwin's maximum sustained winds Thu afternoon were near 40 mph (65 kph). The
storm was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) W of Manzanillo, Mexico,
and was moving E at 6 mph (9 kph).

The depression's was predicted to begin curving away from Mexico by Fri
morning and head back out over the Pacific.

MYREF: 20111014160001 msg201110146062

[239 more news items]

---
Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Warm Ocean Water Keeps Hurricanes at Bay, Study Finds

Brett Israel
OurAmazingPlanet
Oct 13, 2011 4:52 PM ET

Hurricanes are more likely to miss the United States when there is a huge
swath of warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, reveals a new study of recent
hurricane trends.

So far, this year's hurricane season has been an active one, with 16 named
storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), 5 hurricanes and 2
major hurricanes (those Category 3 or stronger onthe Saffir-Simpson scale).

Last year's hurricane season was even more active. With 12 hurricanes in the
Atlantic,the season was one of the most active ever. But unless you live in
the Caribbean, you probably did not notice. None of last year's hurricanes
made landfall in the United States. And only one, Hurricane Irene, which
roared along the E Coast, has so far made landfall this year. [Infographic:
Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form]

What boosted the U.S.'s luck?

Warm pool expansion

The new study found that a huge swath of warm water kept the 2010 hurricanes
at bay. Warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the western
tropical N Atlantic, the so-called Atlantic warm pool, shifted to the E in
2010. That shifted hurricane creation further E in the Atlantic, making it
more likely that steering currents in the atmosphere would make the storms
curve away from the United States coast as they roared west.

In 2010, the warm pool was "very, very large," said study team member Chunzai
Wang, an oceanographer with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). In 2010, the pool was more than double its normal size.

The warm pool was so big that it blocked the effects of that year's La
Niña. During La Niña years, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures
influence global weather patterns. La Niña y have been linked to active
hurricane seasons.

"There's many factors that control the hurricane track," Wang told
OurAmazingPlanet. "The Atlantic warm pool is only one of them. But In 2010,
the warm pool played a major role."

About 25% of a season's hurricanes will typically hit the United States. That
number falls by almost 1/2 in y with a swollen Atlantic warm pool, the new
study found.

Like a leaf

The new finding may seem counterintuitive because warm ocean waters are what
fuel big hurricanes, but the study doesn't contradict that bit of basic
hurricane science. It's just that the warm waters not only feed a hurricane's
fire, but they influence the atmosphere as well.

Wang said a hurricane behaves like a leaf floating in a river, totally at the
whim of the current. So goes the river, so goes the leaf. A large Atlantic
warm pool causes the atmospheric "river" to steer toward the northeast,
carrying a hurricane with it.

"How the hurricanes go depends on the atmospheric steering flow pattern," Wang s
aid.

The sample size for the study is small, since reliable hurricane records have
only been kept since 1950 and more detailed satellite data only since
1970. Hurricanes are a complicated phenomenon, and there are many factors at
play, Wang said, but at the very least, the study explains why no 2010
hurricanes hit the United States.

Just because a hurricane forms further to the E does not necessarily mean it
has a strong chance of curving away from the E Coast, said atmospheric
scientist Jeff Weber of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, Colo. There are other atmospheric patterns in play, but they are not
divorced from the Atlantic warm pool.

"I wouldsuggest that the [Atlantic warm pool] is a player in land falling E
Coast hurricanes,but not the final word," Weber said.

MYREF: 20111015100002 msg201110154003

[242 more news items]

---
Everyone agrees that the climate is changing, but there are violently
diverging opinions about the causes of change, about the consequences of
change, and about possible remedies.
-- Freeman Dyson, "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the
Universe", 2007.

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Round-Up for Oct 15

Tricia Edgar
Decoded Science
Oct 15, 2011 at

Hurricane Jova dominated the wk of Oct 9^th, with strong winds, rain, and
flooding that caused property damage and several deaths in Mexico. This coming
week, Tropical Storm Irwin is gaining strength, although it may not make landfal
l.

Coming Storms: Tropical Storm Irwin Moves Through the Eastern Pacific Region

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Irwin moved at wind speeds of 45 mph in
the area that is to the southwest of Manzanilla, Mexico. The storm appears to
be on a course that will take it away from land. It is moving south-southeast
at a speed of 2 mph. The storm's ocean bound course is a relief for residents
of the area, who experienced Hurricane Jova last week. Last week's storm
killed 6 people.

Recovering From the Storm: Hurricane Jova Caused Flooding and Property Damage
in Mexico

This week, Hurricane Jova hit the Pacific coast of Mexico, causing property
damage in the order of 50 million. Flooding and mudslides caused the majority
of the damage. Thousands evacuated their homes, and the storm is blamed for at
least 5 deaths. Speeding toward land with 100 mph winds, Jova hit the coast
just W of the port of Manzanillo. A mudslide and a collapsing home were
responsible for 4 of the deaths in this week's storm. Flood waters claimed the
life of a woman who was trapped in her car.

The hurricane passed within 15 miles of Puerto Vallarta, a internationally-
renowned beach resort. Fortunately, the resort was on the weaker side of the
hurricane and residents only experienced strong winds and rain.

Jova's strength waned as it passed over Mexico late this week. In a typical
hurricane season, the eastern Pacific experiences 9 hurricanes. Jova was
the ninth hurricane of the 2011 season.

Tropical Storm Fact: Different Names, Different Winds

When you're examining upcoming tropical storms, wind speed determines what
category these storms fall into. A tropical depression is a storm with wind
speeds less than 39 mph. A tropical storm has wind speeds from 39 mph to 73
mph. After that, the storm becomes a hurricane.

The way a hurricane interacts with the land is also a huge factor in the
damage and the death toll. Areas with steep slopes and few trees experience
more landslides and flooding than areas that are treed and relatively
flat. Building materials also contribute to hurricane damage. In many parts of
the world, local building materials such as mud do not easily withstand
hurricane winds and rain.

If you'd like to keep track of the season's hurricanes and tropical storm
activity, subscribe to our Facebook, Twitter, and RSS feeds. Every wk during
the hurricane season Decoded Science posts the week's hurricane round
up. We'll discuss current and upcoming storms, their impact, and what you can
do to prepare. Have a question about a particular storm? Just post your
question here, or on our Ask the Experts page!
http://www.decodedscience.com/abou/ask-experts

References

National Weather Service. National Hurricane Center Oct 15, 2011.
Fox News. Hurricane Jova Kills At Least 5 People In Mexico Oct 14, 2011.

MYREF: 20111016053001 msg2011101630421

[239 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Bangkok fighting losing battle against floods

[In related news, a 2nd typhoon is headed for Thailand and is expected to hit
within 24 hours].

ABC [Aus]
Oct 18, 2011 13:16:28

* Flood risks growing in Bangkok (ABC News)
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/abcnewsbreakfast/video/201110/555174_20111018-F
lood-risks_video2.flv
* Bangkok flood barriers hold firm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-17/bangkok-flood-barriers-hold-firm/3574960
* Bangkok flood barriers hold firm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-17/bangkok-flood-barriers-hold-firm/3574960
* Floods threaten to inundate Bangkok
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-16/floods-threaten-to-inundate-bangkok/357343
2
* Bangkok barriers hold but floods still menace
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-16/bangkok-barriers-hold-but-floods-still-men
ace/3574048
* Thailand
http://maps.google.com/?q=Thailand&ll=13.762062,100.480957&z=5


Residents are fighting a losing battle against huge floodwaters encircling
Bangkok, despite authorities insisting the capital would escape major flooding.

A big industrial area in the N of the city was the latest victim overnight
after flood protection barriers failed, and the E of Bangkok was also inundated.

Many homes and factories are underwater and 100s of 1000s of people are now
out of work.

Four major industrial parks, many including high-tech manufacturers, are
already underwater, affecting about 350k workers.

Volunteers and soldiers are frantically working together and filling sandbags
to save factories and jobs.

"There is some impact if these factories close. They won't need our supplies,"
Apichart Kongka said.

"Our factory will then have to stop production as well. It will affect our
income if our factory closes as we'll have no work."

Observing the huge barrier building effort, one Japanese factory owner was
optimistic after a government declaration that the area should be safe.

But Dave Griffiths from the Sun Cabinet Factory was not so positive as he
watched the water rise.

"The water's increasing. I check again this morning. It continues to increase
and I think it will increase for a few days more because the water's still
coming down from up country," he said.

"[The floods will] have a huge impact on the economy because when the water
goes down there's a lot of work to do to put everything right; a lot of money
to be spent to rebuild factories, communities. It's a huge, huge issue for sure.

"On Navanakorn site we have around 300 people. We have another factory at Bang
Si, we lost that factory last week.

"We have another factory at Bang Pa-in, we're fighting the water there, we're
hopeful we can win. But it's a big effort."

Eventually water poured into the factory and the area has now been evacuated.

The government has repeatedly said that central Bangkok should escape major
flooding. The city coped with high tides, massive run-off and heavy rain at
the weekend.

More predicted high tides will test the government's strategy to divert water
around the city's outskirts, which are already now heavily flooded.

It is unknown how long the water will take to subside and further heavy rain
is forecast.

MYREF: 20111018161502 msg201110182260

[246 more news items]

---
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Thai flood death toll hits 307, 3 missing

PHOTO: Thai soldiers carry a woman through a flooded street in Pathum Thani
province Oct 17, 2011. Thailand's government has asked
manufacturers in the Nava Nakorn Industrial Zone in Pathum Thani
province to halt operations due to flooding, the Flood Relief Operation
Centre said on Mon.

BANGKOK, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) -- At least 307 Thais have been killed in the
worst flood in decades and 3 others remain missing, Wibul
Sangaunpong, director-general of the Department of Disaster Prevention
and Mitigation, said on Mon.

Flood waters have not yet subsided in 27 provinces in 56 provinces
affected by flooding.

Since the heavy flooding caused by tropical storms and monsoon rains
ravaged the country in late July, over 2.3 mn people have been
suffering. Two-thirds of the country has witnessed the worst inundation
which has so far disconnected more than 200 highways and roads and
crippled northbound rail lines. Almost a thousand of enterprises were
forced to halt their operation.

MYREF: 20111018174502 msg2011101811762

[241 more news items]

---
[W]omen are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Fla hurricane fund has $3.2 bn shortfall

Gary Fineout
10.18.11

Tallahassee, Fla (AP) -- Florida's hurricane fund is confronting a potential
$3.2 bn shortfall, financial experts said Tue in a new estimate of the money
available to the pool intended to help insurers make disaster payments.

The fund was created after Hurricane Andrew devastated S Florida in
1992. Insurers get help to pay homeowners if a storm results in widespread damag
es.

But the fund doesn't have enough cash on hand to meet all of its obligations
in the event of a big storm, or just as bad, a series of hurricanes. So the
fund must go out and borrow what it needs.

Financial experts for the fund, however, have drawn up new estimates that
contend that turmoil in financial markets and a weak economy have made it
unlikely that the fund would have enough money to help insurers after a hurrican
e.

This y the fund is providing $18.4 bn worth of coverage. It should have more
than $7 bn of cash on hand by the end of the year, but it would still need to
borrow another $11 bn if a storm were to strike.

The new estimates, which were to be presented to a state panel Tue, suggest
the fund could borrow just $8 bn over a 12-month period.

The new figures, however, do suggest that the fund - formally known as the
Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund - could borrow an additional $6 billion
during a period one to 2 y following a major storm.

The news that the fund's financial strength has eroded isn't completely unexpect
ed.

Last m Jack Nicholson, the chief operating officer of the fund, told state
legislators that the fund is on "shaky ground."

"I think we are dangerously overexposed considering the current reality of the
marketplace," Nicholson said at the time. "... It scares me to death where we ar
e."

Nicholson wants state lawmakers to scale back the size of the fund. That
would likely cause insurance premiums to rise but it has the backing of many
key Republicans, including Gov Rick Scott.

Every insurer currently in Florida is required to purchase coverage from the
"Cat Fund" as it also called. The fund provides a backstop to insurers at a
rate that is generally cheaper than reinsurance sold by private
companies. Nicholson estimated that this low-cost option probably results in
insurance premiums being about 25% cheaper.

If a storm causes enough damages the insurer can ask for reimbursements from
the fund. But if the hurricane fund runs out of cash due to a large storm, it
borrows money to pay insurers.

The state pays off its debts with an assessment, or what some call a
"hurricane tax," that is placed on nearly every insurance policy in the state,
including auto insurance policies. Right now, homeowners and drivers in
Florida are paying off charges due primarily to Hurricane Wilma.

MYREF: 20111019100001 msg2011101913018

[243 more news items]

---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Center watching Caribbean storm; dry season officially begins

The "dry" season has started, but it looks like S Florida may have to deal
with at least one more tropical storm threat.

John Nelander
PalmBeachDailyNews.com
Sat, Oct 22, 2011, 09:35 AM

PHOTO: Invest 96L could drift into Central America, or move N and
northeast late in the week.

A low pressure system in the Southwestern Caribbean has been organizing slowly
due to its proximity to the coast of Central America. But forecasters at the
National Hurricane Center Sat were still giving it a good chance of becoming a
tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Rina, by Mon.

The low, tagged 96L by the NHC, has been nearly stationary the last couple of
days. But by Mon, a trough of low pressure over the US could pick the
system up and push it to the north, then the northeast. That's a common
scenario for tropical systems this time of the year, and the reason why S
Florida is particularly vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes in Oct.

Computer forecast models are split pretty much down the middle on the future
of this storm, although most of them predict at least some development. One
group sees the trough of low pressure missing the system, allowing it to drift
westward into Honduras or Belize. Another predicts 96L will be pulled toward
the tip of western Cuba, and that would give it more time to strengthen.

If S Florida is impacted by the storm, it would likely be next Fri or Sat.

Fri's forecasting models were quite enthusiastic about 96L, with some
developing it into a major hurricane late in the five-day forecasting
period. Sat's runs were more encouraging, keeping it a tropical storm or weak
hurricane. Much of that depends on how much interaction there is with land.

The National Weather Service in Miami begins to slowly up the chances for rain
toward the end of next week. The forecast for Fri is for a 40% chance of
showers and thunderstomrs with breezy conditions.

DRY SEASON OFFICIALLY ARRIVES: The NWS in Miami said the dry season began
after the passage of the cold front on Wed. It started June 9 and ended Oct 19.

The June 9 date was the lastest start on record, athough those calculations
only started in 1956. The Oct 19 date was close to the historical median of
Oct 17. Meteorologists use a formula to determine rainy and dry seasons,
based on dewpoint and other factors.

The rainy season lasted 133 days in S Florida, compared to an average of 153
days. Rainfall was 5-7 inches less than average due to the shorter duration of
the season.

Forecasters see another rainfall shortage this winter due to the second La
Nina in as many years. The temperature forecast is less certain, but we may
see an echo of last year's set up, with colder than normal temperatures in Dec
and early Jan, and above average warmth in Feb, March and April.

"A moderate to severe freeze is not out of the question for parts of South
Florida," NWS forecasters said.

MYREF: 20111023120002 msg201110231779

[241 more news items]

---
[Even-number day of week:]
What feedbacks?
Oh ... you mean those mythical feedbacks in GIGO computer models.
Yeah right.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 May 2011 10:39 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical depression forms near Honduras, Nicaragua

Oct 23, 2011

The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression near Honduras will
become Tropical Storm Rina on Sun or Mon.

* The tropical depression is the 18th of the hurricane season
* It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Rina late Sun or Mon
* A tropical storm watch is issued for portions of the Honduran coast

(CNN) -- A tropical depression formed in the western Caribbean Sea on Sun, and
is likely to become Tropical Storm Rina as it skirts the Honduran coastline,
the National Hurricane Center said.

The depression -- the 18th of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season -- was
located off the Nicaragua/Honduras border late Sun afternoon, forecasters
said. The government of Honduras issued a tropical storm watch from Punta
Castilla eastward to the Nicaraguan border. A tropical storm watch means
tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds of at least 39 mph, are
possible within 48 hours.

The depression was moving northwest at near 12 mph, and was expected to turn
west-northwest Mon.

"On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass N of
the northeastern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days," the center
said.

The depression's maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph, just shy of tropical
storm strength, forecasters said.

"Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or 2 and the depression
is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Mon," the center said.

The depression is expected to dump 2 to 4 inches of rain over eastern
Honduras, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches possible in some spots,
according to the center.

The forecast track shows the system brushing Belize as a tropical storm and
making landfall near Chetumal, Mexico, on Fri. However, such long-range
forecasts are subject to change.

MYREF: 20111024130001 msg2011102421152

[244 more news items]

---
[In the search for credible quotes, "skeptics" can unknowingly promote
the views of scientists that actually accept AGW].
Well said Freeman!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 28 Feb 2011 16:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Busy storm season

baltimoresun.com
Oct 23, 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is quieter now as we near the end
of Oct. There have been 16 named storms, from Tropical Storm Arlene
through Hurricane Philippe. That's well above the 9.6 seasonal
average, and just what Colorado State University forecasters
predicted. We're short on hurricanes, however - just 5 -- a bit
below average and well below the 6 to 10 predicted by forecast
teams. Irene and Lee caused quite enough excitement here, thanks. The
season ends officially Nov 30.

MYREF: 20111024160001 msg2011102413988

[243 more news items]

---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane Rina Forecast to Become Category 3 Storm Tonight

Brian K. Sullivan
Businessweek
Tue Oct 25, 2011

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Rina may reach Category 3 strength tonight on
a track toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula resorts and away from the major oil
regions of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rina's top sustained winds were 110 miles (175 kilometers) per hour, up from
105 mph earlier today, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at
8 p.m. New York time. The storm is just below the 111 mph threshold that would
make it a major storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

"Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," the
Miami-based center said. "Rina is expected to become a major hurricane tonight
or Wed."

The agency forecasts that winds will peak at 115 mph, capable of tearing roofs
off houses and crumbling walls. The official track calls for the storm to
close in on Cozumel and Cancun in 2 days before turning away from the Gulf and
skirting western Cuba.

Rina is currently 260 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, heading west
at 3 mph.

Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America's largest oil producer, said port and
offshore operations are normal, according to an e- mail sent to Bloomberg
News. Kinetic Analysis Corp., which assesses the potential impact of hazards,
estimated the storm may shut in 6.51 mn barrels a day of oil produced by Pemex.

Storm's Path

Weather patterns over the US will help steer the storm away from the Bay of
Campeche and the Gulf, where oil and natural gas platforms and rigs are
concentrated. The Gulf is home to 27% of US oil output and 6.5% of natural gas p
roduction.

Less than 2% of natural gas production in the US Gulf may be shut in for up to
5 days, Kinetic Analysis said.

The Jet Stream is much more active over the US at this time of year, and that
helps push weather systems "west to E a little bit more," said Joel Widenor, a
meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

In addition, wind shear over the Gulf would tear Rina apart if it drifted
north, reducing the hurricane to a loose collection of thunderstorms, he said
in a telephone interview.

Rina is expected to mean heavy rain for parts of Florida, Cuba and the
Bahamas, said AccuWeather Inc., based in State College, Pennsylvania.

Mexico has readied 1,130 storm shelters in the state of Quintana Roo, which
includes Cancun and Cozumel, a resort island off the Mexican coast.

Heavy Rain

Rina may drop 8 inches to 16 inches (20 to 41 centimeters) of rain across the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula starting tomorrow, according to the hurricane
center. Atlantic tides may also rise 5 feet to 7 feet above normal as Rina appro
aches.

Hurricane-strength winds extend 30 miles from Rina's core and tropical
storm-force winds reach out 140 miles.

Hurricane warnings have been posted on the E coast of the peninsula from N of
Punta Gruesa to Cancun. A hurricane warning means winds of at least 74 mph are
possible within 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning is in place for the Mexican coast from Chetumal to
Punta Gruesa. Watches are posted for the coast of Belize from Belize City to
the N and for the Honduran islands of Roatan and Guanaja.

The hurricane center is also tracking an area of disturbed weather off the
coast of Venezuela that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical system in the
next 2 days.

MYREF: 20111026163002 msg2011102620192

[243 more news items]

---
[Something about "warm bath in sanctimony"]
Pop over to Tim Blair's for a look.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Feb 2011 14:39 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Remnant of Hurricane Rina shuffles more cruise ship itineraries

* Storm drives record number of ships to Nassau
* Rina impacts more than a dozen sailings in Caribbean
* Man rescued after plunge from cruise ship

USA Today
Gene Sloan
Oct 29 2011

(4:24 PM) -- Industry giant Carnival plans to re-route 3 more cruise ships
over the coming wk due to Rina, the once-powerful storm that caused itinerary
changes at a number of lines this week.

Carnival tells USA TODAY the Sat sailing of the Carnival Dream out of Port
Canaveral, Fla. will be affected by the weakening storm, as will the Sun
sailings of the Carnival Valor out of Miami and the Carnival Legend out of Tampa
.

The line says the Carnival Dream will switch from a Western Caribbean
itinerary to an Eastern Caribbean itinerary for the wk to steer clear of
Rina. Instead of port calls in Mexico, Belize and Honduras, the ship will
visit St. Thomas, St. Maarten and Nassau in the Bahamas.

The Carnival Valor will skip calls scheduled in Roatan, Honduras and Belize
City, Belize and instead visit Ocho Rios, Jamaica and spend an extra day at
sea. The Carnival Legend will skip calls in Belize City, Roatan and Cozumel,
Mexico and instead visit Grand Turk and Falmouth, Jamaica and also spend an
extra day at sea.

As of 10:00 AM CDT, Rina was 55 miles north-northeast of Cancun, Mexico and
moving to the north-northeast at 6 miles per hour. The storm has maximum
sustained winds of 35 miles per hour, making it a tropical depression.

As recently as Wed, Rina was a strong hurricane with winds of 110 miles an
hour, but it has weakened rapidly over the past 2 days as it has moved
northward. The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to continue to
weaken over the next 48 hours.

Rina already this wk has affected the itineraries of more than a dozen cruise
ships carrying nearly 40k vacationers, making it one of the most disruptive
storms in recent years.

UPDATE, Sat, 12:55 PM ET: Carnival has just announced that it is reversing its
decision to alter Sun's departures of the Carnival Valor and Carnival
Legend. The ships will sail on their original schedules. The decision comes in
the wake of the dissipation of Rina over the past 24 hours.

MYREF: 20111030100002 msg201110302173

[244 more news items]

---
Currently [AGW] does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

While they all say the earth is warming, I am not aware of a single
definition of this term, nor a scientific test which shows whether the earth
is in fact warming, cooling or staying the same.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 19 May 2011 14:37 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Australia risks new damage from above-average cyclone season

* Australia weather bureau says country faces more than 12 cyclones 2011-12
* Oil, gas, as well as coal and iron ore mines may be at risk
* Another La Nina weather pattern brewing to fuel storms

[In related news, ABC TV is reporting the 1st Pacific cyclone of the season
is brewing now. With near record rainfall in Qld and WA already this month,
experts are warning of a likely repeat of last summer].

Reuters
Sun Oct 16, 2011 11:01pm EDT

Sydney, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Australia faces an above-average number of cyclones
over the coming storm season, meteorologists said on Mon, threatening new
devastation after massive floods swamped homes, as well as destroying crops
and crippling mining earlier this year.

The northwest offshore oil and gas field and coastal iron ore operations face
a 65% chance of being hit by more than 7 cyclones, Australia's Bureau of
Meteorology (BOM) said in its 2011-12 tropical cyclone season forecast.

Northeast Australia, where coal mining was crippled last y due to heavy
flooding partly generated by cyclones, also faces a 65% chance of more
than the average of 3 to 4 cyclones this season, said BOM.

In total, Australia's N may be hit by more than 12 cyclones due to neutral to
borderline La Nina weather conditions, which bring wet weather to the western
Pacific, fuelling tropical storms over the ocean.

"Historically, these conditions have favoured an above average number of
cyclones in the Australian region," said BOM.

Australia's cyclone season is between Nov and April.

Natural disasters including floods and cyclones cut economic activity by 0.75
percentage points in 2010-11, wiping A$1.75 bn from revenue across 2010-11 and
2011-12, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

Australia's third-largest city Brisbane was inundated with floodwaters and
flooding across an area as big as France and Germany forced major miners to
declare force majeure and damaged large swaths of croplands, including the key
sugar crop.

Australia, one of the world's largest coal exporters, accounts for about
two-thirds of the global coking coal trade, with around 90% of that
coming from Queensland state.

Coking or metallurgical coal is used for steelmaking, with the bulk of
Australian exports to China.

Global miners Rio Tinto , BHP Billiton and Xstrata are among major companies
involved in coal mining in Queensland.

One of the most powerful La Nina's in recent y fuelled the devastating 2010-11
cyclones and floods and the bureau of meteorology said another, less powerful,
La Nina would likely develop in 2011-12.

"Before a tropical cyclone forms it is difficult to predict its exact strength
and path, including whether it will make landfall," said the bureau.

"Along the E and W coasts fewer than 1/2 of the cyclones affect the coast,
with most staying out to sea. Along the N coast more than 1/2 of the cyclones
impact the coast. Tropical cyclones which remain out to sea can still cause
storm surges, gales and areas of intense rain over land."

MYREF: 20111103081502 msg20111103928

[240 more news items]

---
[Assault on Vostok icecores:]
YOU are the one presenting the "evidence." Your evidence MUST be
performed using proven standards, not untested guesswork.
-- Michael Dobony <***@stopassaultnow.net>, 24 Feb 2011 19:49 -0600

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

National Hurricane Center estimates more than 240 tropical systems have been mis
sed

[One of the most active Atlantic seasons on record draws to a close, but it
seems more than 200 storms over the years have been missed in official counts].

Ken Kaye
S Florida Sun-Sentinel
8:46 p.m. EDT, Nov 5, 2011

With less than a m to go, 17 named storms have emerged so far this hurricane
season, ensuring this will be one of the most active y on record. Yet 5 of
those storms were so weak that a few decades ago they likely would have been
overlooked.

Indeed, between 1900 and 2002, the National Hurricane Center estimates it
failed to identify more than 240 systems that might have been tropical storms
but were mistakenly deemed too weak or went undetected because they were too
far out in the ocean. Climatologists further guess that of those, 75 were hurric
anes.

Related:
* Busiest storm seasons
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/fl-busiest-seasons-20111104-9,0,4238933.story
* Hurricane forecast vs. reality
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-bgraphicb-hurricane-forec
ast-vs-reality-20110510,0,214423.graphic
* 2010 Tropical storms and hurricanes
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/broadband/theedge/fl-gx-graphic-historic-hurricane-s
eas20101128,0,6857016.graphic
* Hurricane names of 2011
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hurricane-2011-names-pict
ures,0,6747066.photogallery
* How you can protect your pets and animals
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-petshurricane.pg,0,703589
2.photogallery
* Hurricane Irene in images
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hurricane-irene-20110822-
photos,0,2664075.photogallery
* Hurricane Rina forms off the coast of Central America
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/os-hurricane-rina-forms-video-102511,0,2510033.premi
umvideo
* Tropical Storms
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/topic/disasters-accidents/meteorological-disasters/t
ropical-storms/T03017001.topic
* Tropical Weather
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/topic/weather/tropical-weather/T17009000.topic
* Disasters
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/topic/disasters-accidents/disasters/03015000.topic

Thanks to the satellite era, which came full force in the mid 1970s,
forecasters are able to better estimate the strength of even the most distant
systems. In the past 35 years, they have spotted dozens of storms that
previously would have been discounted, 18 in the past 5 y alone.

"There has been a sizable increase in the number of short-lived, generally
very weak tropical storms during the last couple of decades, said Chris
Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in
Miami-Dade County.

A major ramification of so many missed storms: 2005, thought to be the busiest
season on record with 28 storms, might actually be second to 1933, when,
officially, 21 storms were spotted.

Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who develops
seasonal forecasts, noted that all 21 of those storms emerged on the W side of
the Atlantic, meaning several storms could have developed unseen on the E side
that year.

"Given that there was no aircraft reconnaissance or satellite data in 1933, it
is a possibility that several storms were missed," he said. Bolstering that
theory is that 21 of the 28 storms in 2005 formed on the W side of the
Atlantic, the same number as in 1933, Klotzbach said.

Other y prior to the satellite era also might have been busier than their
current rankings, including 1887, when 19 storms were recorded, and 1936, when
16 storms were observed.

Another consequence of so many undetected storms: Past periods of hurricane
intensity might have been just as busy as the current era, which started in
1995, Landsea said.

Those periods included one at the end of the 19^t^h century and one that
lasted from the 1930s through the 1950s. Many scientists believe the eras are
the result of a natural cycle. Yet some believe the current era has been
fueled by climate change, stemming from human-made greenhouse gases.

Satellites have been "crucial" toward determining which systems actually are
tropical storms, Landsea said. From studying detailed satellite images of a
storm's structure, forecasters can closely estimate a storm's strength.

"If you have band of thunderstorms that curves halfway around a cyclone,
that's usually when it's a tropical storm," Landsea said. "When the
thunderstorms wrap all the way around and when we see an eye, it becomes a
hurricane."

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, or GOES, in 1975 became
the primary tools to detect where and how strong storms are. Forecasters also
rely on polar-orbiting satellites to relay how strong winds are at the surface
of the seas.

Landsea said when storms are close enough to land, hurricane hunter aircraft
can fly into them and accurately determine wind strength. But he noted the
planes only are able to fly into about 30% of the systems.

Because so many storms have been identified by satellites since the early
1980s, the hurricane center has raised the average number of named storms pa
to 12, including 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Until this year, those
numbers had been 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Some residents, by way of blogs and social media, say they would prefer not to
know about seemingly inconsequential storms, only realistic threats. Yet
identifying distant storms is important to warn mariners of potential peril,
Landsea said.

"There are a lot of ships out there over the open ocean, including cruise
ships with lots of passengers and commercial ships," he said. "So we take it
pretty seriously to let the marine community know there's a tropical storm out
there, even if it is weaker and shorter-lived."

MYREF: 20111106160002 msg201111068676

[241 more news items]

---
[Call me kook:]

A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".

Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Tropical Cyclone Kelia leaves 6 dead, floods in Oman

Joni Northam
Bikya Masr
6 Nov 2011

Flooding in Oman.

Starting as a disturbance in the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Kelia moved across the
Omani coast. By Tue, Kelia was just off shore.

Rain and other affiliated affects from the cyclone could be felt from Salalah
to Muscat and even to bits of Iran which is 950 km northeast.

On Mon, the Joint Typhoon Warning Cneter (JTWC) issued the 1st warning on
Cyclone 3A, the 3rd cyclone to form in the Arabian Sea this year.

After close watch the JTWC observed Cyclone Keila made landfall 88 kilometers
northeast of Salalah.

Flash flooding occurred and took 6 lives from across the country. One Omani
civilian was washed away in Muscat, the country's capital, when the man tried
to cross a shallow-flooded area.

A woman and her child died in their vehicle when the car was caught in a
fast-moving current.

Rising floods have also caused the immediate evacuation of patients from a
hospital in Hamriyah.

The Oman region has seen more rainfall this wk then it would in the average
year. Due to lack of prevalent rain much of the Oman infrastructure is not
built to with stand water pressure.

Drains, run offs and strength of the infrastructure are all being challenged.

Oman typically sees one cyclone a year. In 2010 Cyclone Phet brought massive
flooding and Cyclone Gonu was responsible for more than 70 lives in 2007.

MYREF: 20111107130002 msg2011110718398

[242 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

2011 hurricane season costliest, deadliest in 3 years

This y is the USA's costliest and deadliest for hurricanes since 2008. 2 of
the 17 storms that formed in the Atlantic - Irene and Lee - caused most of the
damage.

Doyle Rice
USA TODAY
Nov 6 2011

Hurricane Irene killed 45 people and caused at least $7 bn in damage, the
National Climatic Data Center reports, making Irene the USA's most lethal and
financially damaging hurricane since Ike in 2008. Torrential rains from Irene
led to catastrophic flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This season was also the seventh-busiest for named storms since record-keeping
began in 1851. According to meteorologist Jeff Masters of private meteorology
firm the Weather Underground, 2005 had the most storms, followed by 1933,
1995, 1887, 2010 and 1969.

A tropical storm gets a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph; a storm becomes a
hurricane if and when winds reach 74 mph.

Officially, the 2011 season has about 3 wk to go as it ends on Nov. 30, but
Nov is usually a quiet m and there are no storms expected for at least the
next few days, according to National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

Pre-season predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University accurately predicted the
total number of named storms, although more hurricanes were predicted.

"The season was above average, but not to the level of what we were
predicting," said meteorologist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State.

An average season has about 10 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.

In addition to Hurricane Irene, the other devastating storm this y was
Tropical Storm Lee, remnants of which dumped heavy rain on the interior
Northeast, killing 13 people and leading to at least $1 bn in flood
damage, Masters said.

Masters also predicts little storm activity for the rest of the season: Wind
shear over most of the Atlantic Ocean will be too high to support tropical
storm formation over the coming 2 weeks, he noted in an online report last week.

"I predict we are all done this hurricane season with storms that will cause
loss of life," he said, "but there is still a 70% chance that we will get one
or more named storms in the middle Atlantic that will stay out to sea and not
affect land."

MYREF: 20111107210002 msg2011110712612

[240 more news items]

---
It appears to be a common conception that unless a PHD follows your name,
you are a college professor, or a Hollywood actor, you are unqualified to
form a plausible opinion on GW. My background is in engineering, and my
expertise in the many disciplines involved in climatology is zero.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], Fri, 9 Sep 2011 11:15 +1000

co2 has no climate forcing effect and is not a greenhouse gas and, for that
matter, neither is water vapour.

1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.

Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- ***@27-32-240-172, 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Hurricane-force storm bears down on Alaskan coast

[Last hurricane to hit Alaska was 1974].

AP/CBSNews
Nov 8, 2011 3:21 PM

Anchorage, Alaska - An unusual Bering Sea storm packing hurricane-force winds
and 35-foot waves -- a type of storm not seen for decades in Alaska -- moved
rapidly Tue toward the western Alaska coastline.

The storm was traveling at 60 mph and had reached the western Aleutian
Islands, said Andy Brown, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in
Anchorage. It could reach the beachfront city of Nome by late Tue, with winds
hitting 85 mph.

The storm was expected to produce a 10-foot surge, forcing dozens of coastal
communities to make emergency preparations. Brown advised Bering Sea mariners
and people living in coastal communities from Wales to Unalakleet to "prepare
for a really nasty storm."

"It is very dangerous," Brown said. "Everybody is spreading the word to let
them know this is a major storm."

The storm, described by Brown as "big, deep, low," was taking an unusual path
through the northern and eastern Bering Sea.

The windows were boarded up Tue morning at the Polar Cafe, a popular
restaurant that faces the ocean in Nome. Items stored in the basement had been
carried upstairs and were in one of the hotel rooms, said waitress Andrea
Surina. Plans were being made to move the propane tanks to a safer spot, she sai
d.

"It is blowing sideways snow. The water hasn't really come up much yet but it
is starting to," Surina said.

The approaching storm, however, wasn't keeping the regulars away. They were
sitting at their usual table, talking about the storm, she said.

"It is heading right for us," Surina said. "Nobody misses a good storm."

The last time forecasters saw something similar was in Nov 1974, when Nome
also took the brunt of the storm. That surge measured more than 13 feet,
pushing beach driftwood above the level of the previous storm of its type in 191
3.

Winds from the current storm were expected to push large amounts of water into
Norton Sound, raising sea levels 10 feet above normal through Wed.

That will cause beach erosion and flooding and may push Norton Bay ice on
shore, forecasters said.

Seas were expected to begin rising along the coastline Tue afternoon and gain
height rapidly at night before cresting in Nome on Wed.

"It will wash pretty far up the beach," said Ted Fathauer, lead forecaster for
the National Weather Service in Fairbanks.

Some low-lying areas and a road that runs along the Nome beachfront could
experience flooding, he said.

First responders and emergency managers in the communities likely to be
affected by the storm were in contact with the State Emergency Coordination
Center in Anchorage, which was working with federal and state agencies on
storm response plans, said Jeremy Zidek, spokesman for the Alaska Division of
Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

"They are aware of the situation and are taking steps in each of those
communities to respond," he said.

Smaller communities that are vulnerable to storm erosion were of particular
concern, especially the village of Kivalina, already one of the state's most
threatened communities because of erosion.

Zidek said Kivalina has emergency operations plans in place.

Brown said the state emergency coordination center and the National Weather
Service were in contact with emergency personnel in numerous
communities. Another conference call was planned for Tue afternoon.

"Everybody is aware that the storm is coming," he said.

MYREF: 20111109083001 msg201111099130

[242 more news items]

---
And the thing with danger for the polar bears is breathtaking nonsense,
because these bears do not eat icecubes or like to skate. They go onto
the ice, because they hunt at the coastline, what is behind the ice.
-- Thomas Heger <***@web.de>, 11 Jul 2011 03:59 +0200

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Subtropical Storm Sean forms southwest of Bermuda

Tammy, Vince and Whitney are the only names left.

PhillyTablet
Nov 8 2011

Subtropical Storm Sean formed overnight between the Bahamas and Bermuda,
moving the 2011 hurricane season into a tie with 1969 as the 6th most active
on record, with 18 named storms.

And the season officially continues through the end of Nov.

By early afternoon, Sean had transformed into a volatile tropical storm, but
still was considered unlikely to add the year's total of 6 hurricanes, 3 of
which were major. Both figures are about average.

Sean, though, could make things wet and windy Fri in Bermuda.

One more named storm, and 2011 will join a third-place tie with 1887, 1995 and
last year, which ended with Tomas becoming a hurricane in early Nov.

The all-timer was 2005 - the y of Hurricane Katrina. Names were exhausted in
mid-Oct with Wilma, the last major hurricane to make US landfall.

Six straight seasons without a major hurricane hitting the United States would
be a record, according to the National Hurricane Center. Although Hurricane
Irene did billions of dollars worth of damage during its late August onslaught
along the Eastern Seaboard, it didn't qualify as major because it was Category
One and weakening as it hit N Carolina.

After Wilma, 2005 had to tap 6 Greek letters - Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta,
Epsilon and Zeta - with Hurricane Epsilon forming Nov. 30 and Zeta a
remarkably late Dec. 30.

The only other storm to form in one calendar y and last into another was
Hurricane Alice, Dec. 30, 1954 - Jan 6, 1955.

1933 was second-most active, with 21 storms, none of which had people's
names. They were known by numbers or locations, such as the Chesapeake-Potomac
Hurricane. the Treasure Coast Hurricane, and the Outer Banks Hurricane.

Women's names went into formal use in 1953, and men's names joined the mix
with Bob in 1979.

Subtropical storms differ from tropical storms not in location of origin but
in structure and temperature, according to National Hurricane
Center. Sustained winds of 39 m.p.h. or more are also needed to rise above
cyclone status.

The NHC definition of subtropical cyclone says: "This system is typically an
upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and
maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or
more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a
relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the
center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of
convection."

Subtropical storms won't turn into hurricanes without 1st becoming heat-driven
tropical storms.

MYREF: 20111109090002 msg2011110910611

[241 more news items]

---
[W]omen are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Where Did the Dangerous Alaska Storm Come From?

* Weirdo Weather: 7 Rare Weather Events
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/weird-weather-anomalies-110302-1183/
* The Coldest Places on Earth
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/coldest-places-on-earth-0871/
* Album: Monster Waves
http://www.livescience.com/11264-monster-waves.html

Brett Israel
LiveScience
08 Nov 2011 Time: 06:19 PM ET

An extremely dangerous storm is slicing toward northwestern Alaska and is
expected to bring blizzard conditions and hurricane-strength winds to the
state's W coast. The storm, which formed from a mix of air masses over an area
of ocean prone to spinning up strong storms, could be bigger than anything
ever seen in the 49th state, the National Weather Service warned.

This morning (Nov. 8) the storm was about 600 miles (965 kilometers) southwest
of St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea. According to the forecast from the
NWS office in Fairbanks, Alaska, it was to sweep into Russia's Chukotsk
Peninsula tonight and move into the northwestern Chukchi Sea.

"This will be extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm of an epic
magnitude rarely experienced," read a statement from the NWS. "All people in
the area should take precautions to safeguard their lives and property."

The storm could be one of the most severe Bering Sea storms in nearly 40
years. The strong winds are expected up and down the entire W coast of the
state. [Related: Hurricanes from Above: See Nature's Biggest Storms]

"Something that's kind of unusual in this case is that all of our computer
models were in agreement of this being an extremely strong storm," said Jim
Brader, a meteorologist at the Fairbanks NWS office.

How it formed

The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the
cold air off Siberia, picking up speed in a jet stream near there and then
intensifying as it moved into the Bering Sea - "a place where storms typically
intensify," Brader told OurAmazingPlanet.

The weird storm has an unusually long fetch length, which is the length of the
wind blowing in a single direction over water. In this case it's maybe 1k
miles (1,600 km), Brader said.

To envision what a long fetch length will do, think about blowing wind with
your mouth over a bowl of water; the water piles up at the opposite end. The
same thing happens over the ocean. The stronger and longer the fetch length,
the bigger the waves it will create.

The winds from the current storm will push high waves ashore and create
widespread coastal flooding and severe erosion of the coastline, the NWS
warns. Sea levels could rise as much as 10 feet (3 meters) above normal in the
Norton Sound and along the Bering Strait coast.

Alaska in the bull's-eye

Wind speeds are expected to reach hurricane strength -- 75 mph (120 kph) --
with gusts up to 100 mph (160 kph) across the Bering Strait coast and
St. Lawrence Island. That's bad news from a winter storm.

"Cold air impacts the water more and can push the momentum of the wind into
the water more," Brader said.

In the storm's bull's-eye are some of the harshest inhabited areas of
Alaska. Severe flooding and winds are predicted to strike areas already hit
hard by coastal erosion, reported the Climate Central blog.

Kivalina Island, a barrier island home to about 400 people, is perhaps 5 feet
(1.5 m) above sea level. "It doesn't take a lot to wash waves into where
people are," Brader said.

The storm could be similar to a 1974 Alaska storm, but sea ice is lower in
today's warmer world, providing no protection along the coast, according to
the NWS. Some areas in the N do have some winter sea ice, and it could become
a hazard if pushed ashore, Brader said.

MYREF: 20111109230001 msg2011110926629

[241 more news items]

---
[Peter Webb:]

You are turning a very simple conjecture and proof into
something way more complicated than it is.

No -- you've oversimplified it,
-- quasi <***@null.set>, Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:19 -0500

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Massive Arctic 'hurricane' slams Alaska

CNN's Brad Lendon
This Just In
Nov 9th, 2011

A winter storm of hurricane strength was slamming Alaska early Wed with winds
of up to 100 mph, high seas and blizzard conditions.

The National Weather Service called the storm moving into the state off the
Bering Sea "a powerful and extremely dangerous storm of record or near-record ma
gnitude."

[Updated at 1:10 p.m. ET] Frigid winds like those now ripping across the
Bering Sea into Alaska can cause more damage than warm winds, meteorologists
tell the Christian Science Monitor.

"Cold air impacts the water more and can push the momentum of the wind into
the water more," meteorologist Jim Brader of the National Weather Service's
Fairbanks office told the Monitor.

Brader also said the winds moving in the same direction over a distance of
about a thousand miles, something that means bigger waves and more water
pushed ashore, according to the Monitor report.

That means people on low-lying islands and coastal areas may face big trouble,
according to the report.

In fact, the village of Point Hope points out on its website how it had to
move parts of the village to a new site during the 1970s because of the
effects of storm surge and erosion.

[Updated at 12:36 p.m. ET] The wind chill at Red Dog Dock S of Kivalina,
Alaska, was -14.1 degrees Fahrenheit at 8 a.m. local time, according to
measurements from the NOAA's National Data Buoy Center. Winds were gusting to
70 mph and the temperature was 12.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The rate of ice
accertion, the process of ice building up on solid objects, was more than 15.6
inches an hour, according to the NDBC data.

[Updated at 12:16 p.m. ET] KNOM radio in Nome, Alaska, reports via Twitter
that a two-foot diameter log, ice and rocks the size of fists are being blown
along Front Street in the town.

[Updated at 11:28 a.m. ET] Major coastal flooding and severe beach erosion is
expected along the northern and eastern shores of Norton Sound, the National
Weather Service reports. Sea levels are forecast to rise 8 to 10 feet and
strong winds may push ice in Norton Bay onshore through Wed night, forecasters s
ay.

[Updated at 10:04 a.m. ET] A Twitter user says their mother's house in
Kotzebue, Alaska, is shaking so hard in the wind that the woman fell down.

[Updated at 9:53 a.m. ET] The storm is pushing water in to Norton Sound and
flooding is anticipated in communities along Alaska's western coast, National
Weather Service meteorologist Scott Berg, told CNN Wed morning.

Water has moved up to the base of some buildings in Nome and is expected to
continue to rise, Berg said. The weather service also has reports of roofs
being torn off buildings by high winds in Nome, he said.

The highest gust reported in the storm so far is 89 mph in Wales, Alaska, Berg s
aid.

The weather service has not reported any significant snow accumulation so far,
but it has been snowing continuously in some areas since Tue, he said.

"When the snow is flying sideways, it's kinda hard to go out and see how much
is falling," Berg said.

The center of the storm is pushing northward and will turn to the
north-northwest later in the day, he said. Communities including Kivalina and
Point Hope will see worsening conditions, according to Berg.

[Updated at 9:34 a.m. ET] The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center reports the storm is
generating waves as high as 40 feet in the Bering Sea. Wind gusts up to 83 mph
in Cape Lisburne, Alaska, and 76 mph in Wales, Alaska, the agency said.

[Posted at 6:32 a.m. ET] Early Wed, Twitter reports said wind speeds in Nome
in northwestern Alaska had reached 100 mph. That would be the equivalent of a
category 2 hurricane if it occurred in the tropics. Twitter postings reported
structural damage in Nome, including the roof blown off a building. Landline
phones were down, according to a Twitter post.

"These things get named hurricanes down S and get a category. It's that
magnitude," said Jeff Osiensky, regional warning coordination meteorologist
with the National Weather Service, told the Anchorage Daily News. The storm's
scope was also hurricane-like, he said, covering 750 to 1k miles in breadth.

Chip Leeper, incident commander with the Nome government, told CNN that people
in low-lying areas and on along the town's sea wall had been advised to seek
shelter elsewhere.

National Weather Service meteorologist Steven Kearney told CNN that Nome could
endure sea levels up to 8 feet above normal as well as 10-foot waves.

Other coastal and island villages were preparing evacuations if surf became
too high.

Inland, the storm was expected to produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions
across western Alaska, the weather service said. Snow accumulations of up to
14 inches were possible. A Twitter poster reported winds gusts of 50 mph in
the inland village of Aniak early Wed.

MYREF: 20111110090002 msg2011111014678

[241 more news items]

---

Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?

Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Bering Sea storm is as powerful as Category 3 hurricane

Nome storm
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00d8341c630a53ef0162fc42f725970d-pi

Scott A. Johnson
La Times
Nov 9, 2011 | 6:47 pm

The monster storm hurtling across western Alaska is the equivalent of a
Category 3 hurricane in more tropical climes, authorities said Wed as surging
seas flooded low-lying parts of Nome and left remote communities to the N
bracing for high water.

"It's on the line of a pretty destructive hurricane, and we know from
experience what a Category 3 would do in the Lower 48 in terms of damage. This
is something that would be on a par with that," National Weather Service
warning coordinator Jeff Osiensky told reporters Wed.

Though winds that had gusted up to nearly 90 mph began to subside slightly,
weather forecasters said a combination of remaining high winds, rising tides
and storm surge could drive water levels along some areas of the coast up to
10 feet above normal -- potentially flooding low-lying villages in the path of
the strongest winds.

Photos: Preparing for Alaska storm
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-bering-sea-storm-pictures,0
,5856251.photogallery

"The worst won't be over until this storm is completely dissipated and
everything is returned down to normal levels.... This is not a closed
event. It's very much open," said John Madden, director of the Alaska Division
of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Authorities are worried about villages such as Kivalina, a town of 427 people
near the Chukchi Sea that sits on an 8-mile-long barrier reef. Plagued with
steady erosion from past storms, the reef has shrunk to just 27 acres.

Thousands of feet of rock revetment have been installed over the last few y to
shore it up, and while the revetment appears to be holding, it does not
protect the entire village -- the airport remains exposed, said Colleen Swan,
a City Council member and operations manager for the town.

Forecasts for a change in wind direction as the storm moves W toward Russia
raise the possibility of flooding on the ice-covered lagoon that lies on the
inland side of the village, "and that will flood the low-lying areas of the
village, a few houses on the N side of the village," Swan said in an interview.

An emergency shelter has opened in the school and some elders and families
with young children spent the night in it Tue, she said.

"We're doing pretty good, considering," she said. "It's been very stressful
not knowing what to expect."

Residents along the coast have posted videos and photos all day of the
crashing surf and wind-driven snow that have assaulted the entire coastline
from the Yukon Delta up into the Arctic. The video below, shot on Little
Diomede Island on the watery border between Russia and the U.S., shows a
container being tossed about like a toy in the raging surf and an excavator
surrounded by water on what is normally a roadway.

The National Weather Service said the low-pressure zone at the center of the
storm was expected to gradually weaken and move northwest toward Wrangel
Island in Russia by late Thu.

"We're looking for the winds to subside a bit as the system weakens. However,
the surge, the piling of water along the ocean, will continue over the next 12
to 18 hours," Osiensky said. "So even though the winds will die down, the
water levels will remain quite high over an extended period of time. It's
still going to be very critical in a lot of communities."

MYREF: 20111111120127 msg2011111115459

[245 more news items]

---
[the diff between proving a positive and negative:]

Naive studies may be evidence of a kind, but really all they can do is
re-inforce studies already published. If one can fit a regression
line through some published data and it seems to show a statistically
significant connection, and it predicts much the same thing as in
published work, then we have evidence to accept the published work[...]
OTOH, if [you] get a different answer [you] are [most likely in error].

[...]
You do realise that what you have described is "an appeal to authority" -
the authority in the case being some unnamed journals - and not the
scientific method.
-- Peter Webb <***@optusnet.com.au>, 23 Nov 2010

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Arabian Sea Cyclone 04A Drenches Coast of Oman

Weather experts say storms more frequent in recent years.

2nd cyclone in 1 wk hits Oman; flooding continues.

Earthweek
Nov 11, 2011

Cyclone 04A Track
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201104A.html

LOOP: Poorly organized Cyclone 04A can be seen spinning off the coast of Oman
late Wed.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/tropic.php

Tropical Storm 04A became the second such cyclone to form over the Arabian
Sea, S of Oman, within one week.

The spirling bands of the storm brought locally heavy rain and flash flooding
to the coast of Oman, according to the Times of Oman.

Officials said that at least 15 people died during heavier rains brought by
Cyclone Keila last week.

Such storms have become more frequent an penetrated deeper into the Gulf of
Aden in recent years, according to meteorologists.

A new study says that mounting air pollution across the Indian subcontinent is
responsible for the strengthening of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.

MYREF: 20111111163001 msg20111111218

[245 more news items]

---
[Sucked in:]

1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.

Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Harshest hurricane season since 2008 nears an end

WWL.com
Sun, 13 Nov 2011 9:37AM

The 6-month hurricane season that ends Nov 30 is America's costliest and
deadliest since 2008.

2 of the 17 storms that formed in the Atlantic, Irene and Lee, caused most
of the damage.

The National Climatic Data Center says Hurricane Irene killed 45 people and
caused at least $7 bn in damage, making it the country's most lethal and
financially damaging hurricane since Ike in 2008.

Rains from Irene led to catastrophic flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This season was also the seventh-busiest for named storms since record-keeping
began in 1851.

2005 had the most storms, followed by 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010 and 1969.
Officially, the 2011 season has about 2 wk to go, but Nov is usually a quiet mon
th.

Pre-season predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration and Colorado State University accurately predicted the total
number of named storms, though more hurricanes were predicted. An average
season has about 10 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.

MYREF: 20111114050001 msg2011111432210

[245 more news items]

---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

SES warns of cyclone danger

[With another La Nina season developing, authorities are preparing for
a possible repeat of summer 2010 in FNQ].

Grier Williamson
Mackay Daily Mercury
Sun, Nov 13, 2011 19:07

Mackay SES members were busy at the weekend - encouraging residents to prepare
ahead of the upcoming cyclone season.

The group hosted a preparation demonstration workshop at Bunnings on Sat.

Mackay SES regional unit project officer Barry Jenkins said SES members walked
around Bunnings, handing out balloons to the kids and cyclone tracking maps
and emergency action guides to the adults.

"The emergency action guides are very handy and they are available from Mackay
Regional Council." Mr Jenkins said.

"They have all the emergency phone numbers and hints about what to do, before,
during and after a cyclone."

"The biggest thing we want to emphasise is for people to have their emergency
kits prepared in advance so they can avoid the panic (during a disaster)," he sa
id.

Now was the time to prepare, well before the season began and while the
weather was fine, he said.

"Now's a good time to inspect roofs to make sure they're not leaking. It's
also good to have sandbags... information from the Bureau of Meteorology said
we can expect a decent amount of rainfall over the season.

"It's good to have a tarp with sand on it in your backyard; then it's just a
matter of bagging it."

Mr Jenkins said alternatives people could use if they couldn't get sandbags
such as a pillowcase, a garbage bag or black plastic flume filled with dirt
from the garden, or water.

"We did that just to illustrate it's not the sand that stops the water, it's
the weight," Mr Jenkins said.

Purchasing tarpaulins to cover electrical goods or your bed was also a good idea
.

Visit the SES website, www.emergency.qld.gov.au/ses for more information.

MYREF: 20111114060002 msg2011111422840

[244 more news items]

---
[Why Are Republicans Climate Skeptics?]
Maybe that's because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven't
had any warming, man-made or otherwise.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 28 Oct 2010 15:25 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Are we done yet? -- Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011

Jim Reif
NBC2 News [Fort Myers, Cape Coral & Naples, Florida]
Mon, Nov 14, 2011 4:35 PM EST

With the demise of last week's Tropical Storm Sean, satellite pictures today
show the Tropical Atlantic basin is storm-free.

Wind shear is increasing over much of the Atlantic, as it normally does in
Nov, and drier airmasses are also penetrating deeper into the tropical latitudes
.

Does this mean we're done with hurricane season ?

Two ways we can answer that question. First, is with our long range computer
models and the other via what hurricane history (climatology) tells us.

Today's runs of the global computer models project no development across the
Tropical Atlantic for the next 7 days - and they're pretty emphatic about
it. That gets us safely to Nov 21st and just 9 days left to the hurricane season
.

So the models are telling us that we're probably done with storms for 2011.

Hurricane history is not quite as definitive. The National Hurricane Center
database of of storms tells us that since 1851, there have been 37 tropical
storms and hurricanes from this point on in Nov.

That's about 1 storm every 4 years. However, that same database reminds us
that storms sometimes don't follow the meteorological seasons that we've defined
.

Lili (1984) and Nicole (1998) are examples of hurricanes that have formed in
recent Decs.

You might also remember 2005, when we ran out of storm names and had to resort
to the Greek alphabet. Tropical Storm Zeta formed on Dec 30th of that year.

But to answer the question - are we done yet ? I'd have to say that there's a
greater than 75% chance that we won't see Tammy, Vince or Whitney this year.

MYREF: 20111115150001 msg201111159922

[240 more news items]

---
[The Last Chance:]
A team led by Berkeley Professor of physics, Richard Muller, is in
the process of analysing 1.5 billion bits of raw climate data. The project
is called The Berkeley Earth Project and will examine the temperature data
used by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the MET Office in England.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 9 Mar 2011 15:32 +1100

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

N Queensland prepares for cyclone season

[In related news, the 1st potential cyclone of the season has been spotted
nr the Philippines].

Nathalie Fernbach
ABC [Australia]
16 Nov, 2011 5:23PM AEST

As part of our cyclone preparations ABC N Queensland is testing our website's
emergency mode today.

The black line you see at the top of the home page is used when an emergency
situation (such as a flood, cyclone, tsunami or fire) is imminent.

As the watch is upgraded to a warning by emergency services, the black line
will be replaced by a red line and the N Queensland photo banner will be
replaced by an image of a red emergency light.

After the emergency situation has passed the website will return to the black
mode as recovery starts.

As cyclone season has already started it is important that you have your
emergency preparations in order.

For information on how to prepare, visit EMQ's website.

For contact details for emergency services and local disaster management
groups please go through this list.

For tips on how to prepare your garden for a cyclone, check out what our
gardening guru Phil Murray has to say.

During an emergency keep your radio tuned to 630AM or 1422FM if you're in the
Hughenden area.

Satellite photo of Cyclone Anthony
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/11/16/3368337.htm

As a disaster approaches the ABC N Qld website will change into
emergency mode (Bureau of Meteorology)

Map Townsville 4810
http://www.abc.net.au/local/maps/google_map.htm?latitude=-19.2643&longitude=146.
8118&caption=Townsville%204810

MYREF: 20111117180002 msg2011111721628

[240 more news items]

---
Check the dates and times when Bozo posts. It's a 5 day Monday-Friday 8
hour working week.
-- Tom P, 26 Nov 2008

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Trouble stirring in the Atlantic

Kate Elizabeth Queram
starnewsonline.com
Thu, Nov 17, 2011 at 11:16 am

Less than 2 wk until the official end of hurricane season, and the Atlantic
Ocean is still stirring up trouble.

"I said on Mon that the tropics look nice and quiet," Mark Sudduth, a
hurricane researcher at HurricaneTrack.com, posted on his Facebook page
Wed. "Well, that may change over the next week, as global models are starting
to indicate the possibility of development way out in the open Atlantic."

Last wk I told you that hurricane season is kind of basically over, and that's
still true, as far as bonafide hurricanes go. But tropical storms have
consistently been brewing over the open sea, and computer models are
predicting that yet another system is likely to form in the next few days.

The good news is that if it forms, the storm will be far enough away -- about
2k miles off the coast of Florida -- that N Carolina is unlikely to even feel
any residual effects from it, Sudduth said.

"It's not very scary, this particular situation," he said. "But it's
interesting that we're in mid-Nov, getting towards Thanksgiving wk and the
tropics are still active."

To Wilmington residents, who for the most part escaped Hurricane Irene with
minimal damage, the 2011 storm season may have seemed relatively quiet. But so
far, 18 storms have been named, Sudduth said.

"For whatever reason, ever since Irene, the pattern has favored lots of storms
developing, but every single one of them ended up turning away from the United
States," he said. "It's absolutely phenomenal, that kind of luck."

If it gains enough strength, this storm will be the 19th one named in
2011. Her name, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, will be Tammy.

"It looks good on the computer model, and that's why I think it's a good sign
that it could (get named)," Sudduth said. "It looks really healthy."

MYREF: 20111118210001 msg2011111825648

[246 more news items]

---
Currently [AGW] does no better than simple extrapolation of current trends.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 25 Nov 2010 11:41 +1100

While they all say the earth is warming, I am not aware of a single
definition of this term, nor a scientific test which shows whether the earth
is in fact warming, cooling or staying the same.
-- "Peter Webb" <***@DIESPAMDIEoptusnet.com.au>, 19 May 2011 14:37 +1000

[Mr Posting Robot v2.1]

[Aussie coal lobby spin]

Busy Hurricane Season Draws to a Close

Insurers urge coastal homeowners to prepare now for next year

ConsumerAffairs.com
11/17/2011

PHOTO: An above-average hurricane season produced several records and one of
the costliest hurricanes on record in 2011.

With 2 wk left in hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30^th, there have been 18
named Atlantic storms, tying 1969 as the sixth-busiest Atlantic hurricane
season since record keeping began in 1851.

Those storms included 6 hurricanes, and the 1st of those, Irene, was only the
second hurricane to hit New Jersey in the last 108 years. Hurricane Irene,
which caused approximately 40 deaths and $4 bn in damages, combined with
Tropical Storm Lee to create one of the worst flood disasters in the
northeastern United States. While the United States avoided a hurricane
making landfall at a Category 3 level or higher for the 6th consecutive year,
the number of Atlantic storms continues to remain consistently high. In the
last 16 years, there have been 12 above-normal hurricane seasons.

The Property Casualty Insurers Association (PCI), which represents insurance
comapnies, is urging residents of coastal areas to use the offseason to
prepare for the next hurricane season, which begins June 1, 2012, and also
urges public policymakers to take steps encouraging home and business owners
to strengthen their properties.

"It is a question of when, not whether, the US Atlantic or Gulf coasts will
face a major landfall," said Christopher Hackett, PCI's director of personal
lines policy. "Coastal residents should use the next few m to prepare for a
major hurricane, and there are a number of things they can do to be ready."

To prevent the loss of life and minimize property damage, it is vital that
coastal residents create a family disaster plan, maintain an emergency supply
kit and stay informed about approaching storms. Now is the time for coastal
residents to review their insurance policies and purchase flood insurance.

Additionally, PCI is calling on elected officials in coastal regions to
examine weaknesses in their building codes and address shortcomings in their
residual markets with well-reasoned, market-oriented approaches that embrace
risk-based pricing and healthy competition.

"Public policymakers can help facilitate stronger homes and businesses, which
will help mitigate damages for consumers," Hackett said.

"Government and consumers, working together, can help protect lives and
property when a major hurricane strikes our shores again."

MYREF: 20111118220002 msg2011111816676

[244 more news items]

---
[Peter Webb:]

You are turning a very simple conjecture and proof into
something way more complicated than it is.

No -- you've oversimplified it,
-- quasi <***@null.set>, Wed, 13 Jul 2011 23:19 -0500